嘉信理财：“25个基点”对金融资产“最有利” 大幅降息或引发恐慌

智通财经09-10

智通财经APP获悉，嘉信理财集团(Charles Schwab Corp.)的奥马尔·阿吉拉尔(Omar Aguilar)表示，美联储下周若降息25个基点，将是对金融资产最有利的情景;若降息幅度更大，则可能引发投资者担忧。嘉信资产管理公司(Schwab Asset Management)首席执行官兼首席投资官阿吉拉尔，在加利福尼亚州亨廷顿海滩举行的“未来保障”(Future Proof)会议上指出...

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Significant rate cuts may cause panic","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SCHW":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，嘉信理财集团(Charles Schwab Corp.)的奥马尔·阿吉拉尔(Omar Aguilar)表示，美联储下周若降息25个基点，将是对金融资产最有利的情景;若降息幅度更大，则可能引发投资者担忧。嘉信资产管理公司(Schwab Asset Management)首席执行官兼首席投资官阿吉拉尔，在加利福尼亚州亨廷顿海滩举行的“未来保障”(Future Proof)会议上指出：若政策制定者维持当前借贷成本不变，考虑到“降息”已基本被市场定价，华尔街可能会做出“相当负面”的反应;反之，若美联储采取激进举措——降息50个基点——投资者可能会将其解读为“经济陷入困境”的信号。“因此，降息25个基点似乎是最合适的选择，”他在接受采访时表示，“这是当前市场的普遍预期，而且我认为这会被视为对当前货币政策的‘微调’。”目前，交易员已完全将“美联储在9月16-17日政策会议上降息25个基点”纳入定价。上周公布的就业数据弱于预期，促使部分美联储观察人士猜测，官员们本月可能会考虑降息50个基点。尽管劳动力市场数据已明显显现疲软迹象，但阿吉拉尔仍认为美国经济正朝着“软着陆”方向推进，且“即便在可能性范围内，也不存在衰退风险”——这一判断意味着美国股市有望进一步上涨。不过，他也预计，在标普500指数从4月近期低点上涨31%之后，未来几个月市场波动性可能会加大。“我们认为，这对主动型基金经理、对个股精选而言是个好机会，”他说，“个股表现的分化程度将会加剧。”阿吉拉尔透露，过去3至5个月，由于预期降息即将到来，嘉信理财已开始增配小盘股;同时也在布局市场中更具周期性的板块——这类板块通常在经济从放缓过渡到复苏的阶段表现较好。他表示，尽管当前劳动力市场有所降温，但整体仍“相当健康”，处于投资者可接受的水平。此外，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的税收法案所带来的刺激效应将对投资者有利，且企业与消费者的资产负债表依然稳健。“综合来看，这些因素都将为经济和市场提供强劲支撑，”阿吉拉尔说。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2566272644","isCrawlerRequest":true}