选举失利打击改革信心这一新兴市场全面崩跌大摩上周才喊加仓

智通财经2025-09-08

智通财经APP获悉，阿根廷市场周一全面崩跌，主权债券、股票和本币比索齐遭重挫，原因是总统米莱的政党在布宜诺斯艾利斯省的地方选举中惨败，引发市场对其经济改革议程能否继续推进的担忧。在全球新兴市场中，阿根廷资产成为当日最大输家。2035年到期的主权债券大跌6.6美分，跌至每美元55美分，收益率飙升至12.9%，创2020年以来最大单日跌幅。全球最大阿根廷ETF Global X MSCI ...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342856.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，阿根廷市场周一全面崩跌，主权债券、股票和本币比索齐遭重挫，原因是总统米莱的政党在布宜诺斯艾利斯省的地方选举中惨败，引发市场对其经济改革议程能否继续推进的担忧。在全球新兴市场中，阿根廷资产成为当日最大输家。2035年到期的主权债券大跌6.6美分，跌至每美元55美分，收益率飙升至12.9%，创2020年以来最大单日跌幅。全球最大阿根廷ETF Global X MSCI ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342856.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1363072403.SGD","symbol_name":"Fidelity Global Financial Services 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This emerging market collapsed across the board. Morgan Stanley only called for an increase in positions last week","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ARGT":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，阿根廷市场周一全面崩跌，主权债券、股票和本币比索齐遭重挫，原因是总统米莱的政党在布宜诺斯艾利斯省的地方选举中惨败，引发市场对其经济改革议程能否继续推进的担忧。在全球新兴市场中，阿根廷资产成为当日最大输家。2035年到期的主权债券大跌6.6美分，跌至每美元55美分，收益率飙升至12.9%，创2020年以来最大单日跌幅。全球最大阿根廷ETF Global X MSCI Argentina(ARGT.US)在纽约盘中一度暴跌逾10%。阿根廷本地股市Merval指数暴跌13%，创下自2020年新冠疫情以来最大日内跌幅。摩根士丹利在上周刚发布的增持阿根廷资产的建议，周一即紧急取消，并警告称，这场败选将提高“市场对改革持续性的质疑，并增加外部融资前景的不确定性”。阿根廷比索在当地市场开盘时一度暴跌7%，随后略微回升，报1,425比索兑1美元，逼近官方设定的1,470比索干预上限。分析师预计，一旦突破该上限，央行将被迫直接入市干预。然而，由于阿根廷外汇储备有限，市场担心央行动用储备稳定汇率的可持续性。巴克莱分析师Ivan Stambulsky指出：“经济部已经表态不会调整外汇政策，但如果干预持续消耗储备，市场将开始担忧，在10月中期选举之前政府是否会被迫允许比索进一步贬值。”在周日的布宜诺斯艾利斯省选举中，米莱政党得票率仅为33.7%，落后反对派高达13.6个百分点，99.98%选票已统计完毕。该省占全国选民的40%，投资者原本预期如果米莱阵营输掉超过5个百分点将引发资产抛售，而实际结果远超市场最悲观预期。摩根大通分析师Diego Pereira指出：“这场惨败远超市场预期，意味着米莱将在10月26日的全国中期选举中面临艰苦战斗。在接下来的五周内，政府可能调整政治策略，以应对近期一系列失误。”布宜诺斯艾利斯省选举结果成为投资者评估全国政治情绪的重要风向标，也让市场更加担心米莱推行激进经济改革的能力。选举结果公布后，米莱在讲话中承认选举失利，并承诺进行“深刻自我反省”，同时誓言将坚持现有经济改革路线，包括外汇管制、货币紧缩和财政改革。近期，米莱政府一直通过收紧金融部门流动性来支撑比索，但副作用是利率飙升，抑制了经济增长。高盛分析师Sergio Armella指出：“虽然地方选举对政策组合本身的影响有限，但其政治象征意义重大，显示政府执政基础受到冲击。”彭博经济研究认为，这次败选可能触发“负向循环”，即资产价格暴跌、政策应对更加激进、经济预期进一步恶化。UBS新兴市场与亚太固定收益主管Shamaila Khan表示：“中期选举的结果将决定未来几个月阿根廷资产的表现。目前单靠动用储备来支撑汇率难以让市场安心。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2565638878","isCrawlerRequest":true}

选举失利打击改革信心 这一新兴市场全面崩跌 大摩上周才喊加仓

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选举失利打击改革信心这一新兴市场全面崩跌大摩上周才喊加仓