大摩：美国通胀回落故事告一段落，市场需适应“更高更久”利率

智通财经2025-09-08

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。研究团队预计，8月核心CPI将环比上涨0.35%，折合年率3.12%，为连续第三个月抬升; 整体CPI则受能源分项重启季调后正增长与食品价格小幅提速的共同带动，环比升至0.38%，年率2.92%， NSA指数对应324.001。与6月起步的上一轮反弹相比，本轮脉冲的...

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enjoylife168
2025-09-09
enjoylife168
停滞性通膨

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整体CPI则受能源分项重启季调后正增长与食品价格小幅提速的共同带动，环比升至0.38%，年率2.92%， NSA指数对应324.001。与6月起步的上一轮反弹相比，本轮脉冲的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342595.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1244550577.SGD","symbol_name":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342595.html","article_id":"2565629504","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565629504","pubTimestamp":1757321597,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。值得一提的是，本月PPI将先于CPI一天公布，届时市场几乎可拼凑出完整的8月PCE拼图，数据透明度显著提升。对于正急切寻找“降息多少”答案的市场而言，这份报告无异于泼下一盆冷水：通胀回落的故事在2025年夏天已暂告段落，下一步，投资者需要为“更高更久”的利率环境做好心理准备。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley: The story of US inflation falling has come to an end, and the market needs to adapt to \"higher and longer\" interest rates","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ZFmain":1,"ZTmain":1,"ZNmain":1,"TNmain":1,"ZBmain":1,"UBmain":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。研究团队预计，8月核心CPI将环比上涨0.35%，折合年率3.12%，为连续第三个月抬升; 整体CPI则受能源分项重启季调后正增长与食品价格小幅提速的共同带动，环比升至0.38%，年率2.92%， NSA指数对应324.001。与6月起步的上一轮反弹相比，本轮脉冲的最大特点是“商品带头、服务暂歇”，即核心商品通胀在关税传导与厂商重新定价的双重作用下继续扩大涨幅，而核心服务在7月部分项目“超前”跳升后，本月将出现温和回吐。报告提醒，商品端的涨价已得到软指标的全面印证：8月ISM支付价格指数与Markit制造业产出价格指数仍处60以上的高位，其中产出价指数自6月以来始终盘踞在疫情期外历史顶部，历史经验显示只要该指数三个月均值高于60，核心商品PCE环比读数大概率正增长;若突破70，涨幅往往进一步放大。模型显示，今年迄今关税相关成本已为核心通胀贡献约20个基点，若8月数据符合预期，累计贡献将升至30个基点，接近团队假设关税税率维持现状下总冲击的一半。具体来看，服装除鞋类依旧缺乏定价能力，新车仅微升，但家电、电子、家具等“其他商品”以及二手车价格明显走强，足以令核心商品环比从7月的0.21%扩张至0.51%。服务方面，租金通胀继续沿着0.3%下方这条缓慢下行通道运行：业主等价租金(OER)和主要居所租金分别录得0.29%与0.27%，与市场租金指标指向的四季度前持续疲软保持一致;酒店均价仍低于一季度，环比虽略改善但仍为负值。核心服务(除住房)在7月因医疗保健和航空票价异常跳升而高达0.48%，8月预计回落至0.32%。其中，牙科服务在7月创纪录上涨2.58%，团队认为存在统计噪音，本月将显著回调，带动整体医疗服务通胀从0.79%降至0.30%;航空票价虽保持正增长，但环比动能自上月高点放缓;车险在连续两个月偏弱后有望反弹至0.5%左右的趋势水平。综合看，核心服务仍具粘性，但短期脉冲已现见顶迹象。能源分项在季调基础上重新转正，食品价格亦自7月低点小幅回升，但仍远低于一季度极端读数，因此整体 CPI虽高于核心，却暂未显示出全面过热风险。模型显示，若8月核心CPI最终落在0.35%，对应的核心PCE环比将达0.34%，高于7月的0.27%，其中金融服务PCE受6—7月美股强劲回报拉动继续高增，医疗保健与航空票价则回落。值得一提的是，本月PPI将先于CPI一天公布，届时市场几乎可拼凑出完整的8月PCE拼图，数据透明度显著提升。风险层面，摩根士丹利提示，由于预测值恰好处于0.35%这一“四舍五入临界”，若商品涨幅稍有不及，未四舍五入结果可能滑落至0.30%，因此单边偏差在数学上更倾向下行。但就趋势而言，只要软指标继续高位徘徊，商品涨价就会从“一次性”变为“持续性”，而服务价格回吐的空间有限，核心通胀的底部已被抬高。对于正急切寻找“降息多少”答案的市场而言，这份报告无异于泼下一盆冷水：通胀回落的故事在2025年夏天已暂告段落，下一步，投资者需要为“更高更久”的利率环境做好心理准备。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":476551957025136,"gmtCreate":1757349776625,"gmtModify":1757349778364,"author":{"id":"3497006675108652","authorId":"3497006675108652","name":"enjoylife168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6aa6e5e2392f958e0b4f4c6bac84d1f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3497006675108652","authorIdStr":"3497006675108652"},"htmlText":"停滞性通膨","listText":"停滞性通膨","text":"停滞性通膨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/476551957025136","repostId":2565629504,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2565629504","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1757321597,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2565629504?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-08 16:53","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"大摩：美国通胀回落故事告一段落，市场需适应“更高更久”利率","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565629504","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。值得一提的是，本月PPI将先于CPI一天公布，届时市场几乎可拼凑出完整的8月PCE拼图，数据透明度显著提升。对于正急切寻找“降息多少”答案的市场而言，这份报告无异于泼下一盆冷水：通胀回落的故事在2025年夏天已暂告段落，下一步，投资者需要为“更高更久”的利率环境做好心理准备。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。研究团队预计，8月核心CPI将环比上涨0.35%，折合年率3.12%，为连续第三个月抬升; 整体CPI则受能源分项重启季调后正增长与食品价格小幅提速的共同带动，环比升至0.38%，年率2.92%， NSA指数对应324.001。</p><p>与6月起步的上一轮反弹相比，本轮脉冲的最大特点是“商品带头、服务暂歇”，即核心商品通胀在关税传导与厂商重新定价的双重作用下继续扩大涨幅，而核心服务在7月部分项目“超前”跳升后，本月将出现温和回吐。</p><p>报告提醒，商品端的涨价已得到软指标的全面印证：8月ISM支付价格指数与Markit制造业产出价格指数仍处60以上的高位，其中产出价指数自6月以来始终盘踞在疫情期外历史顶部，历史经验显示只要该指数三个月均值高于60，核心商品PCE环比读数大概率正增长;若突破70，涨幅往往进一步放大。</p><p>模型显示，今年迄今关税相关成本已为核心通胀贡献约20个基点，若8月数据符合预期，累计贡献将升至30个基点，接近团队假设关税税率维持现状下总冲击的一半。具体来看，服装除鞋类依旧缺乏定价能力，新车仅微升，但家电、电子、家具等“其他商品”以及二手车价格明显走强，足以令核心商品环比从7月的0.21%扩张至0.51%。</p><p>服务方面，租金通胀继续沿着0.3%下方这条缓慢下行通道运行：业主等价租金(OER)和主要居所租金分别录得0.29%与0.27%，与市场租金指标指向的四季度前持续疲软保持一致;酒店均价仍低于一季度，环比虽略改善但仍为负值。核心服务(除住房)在7月因医疗保健和航空票价异常跳升而高达0.48%，8月预计回落至0.32%。</p><p>其中，牙科服务在7月创纪录上涨2.58%，团队认为存在统计噪音，本月将显著回调，带动整体医疗服务通胀从0.79%降至0.30%;航空票价虽保持正增长，但环比动能自上月高点放缓;车险在连续两个月偏弱后有望反弹至0.5%左右的趋势水平。综合看，核心服务仍具粘性，但短期脉冲已现见顶迹象。</p><p>能源分项在季调基础上重新转正，食品价格亦自7月低点小幅回升，但仍远低于一季度极端读数，因此整体 CPI虽高于核心，却暂未显示出全面过热风险。</p><p>模型显示，若8月核心CPI最终落在0.35%，对应的核心PCE环比将达0.34%，高于7月的0.27%，其中金融服务PCE受6—7月美股强劲回报拉动继续高增，医疗保健与航空票价则回落。值得一提的是，本月PPI将先于CPI一天公布，届时市场几乎可拼凑出完整的8月PCE拼图，数据透明度显著提升。</p><p>风险层面，摩根士丹利提示，由于预测值恰好处于0.35%这一“四舍五入临界”，若商品涨幅稍有不及，未四舍五入结果可能滑落至0.30%，因此单边偏差在数学上更倾向下行。但就趋势而言，只要软指标继续高位徘徊，商品涨价就会从“一次性”变为“持续性”，而服务价格回吐的空间有限，核心通胀的底部已被抬高。</p><p>对于正急切寻找“降息多少”答案的市场而言，这份报告无异于泼下一盆冷水：通胀回落的故事在2025年夏天已暂告段落，下一步，投资者需要为“更高更久”的利率环境做好心理准备。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：美国通胀回落故事告一段落，市场需适应“更高更久”利率\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-08 16:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342595.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。研究团队预计，8月核心CPI将环比上涨0.35%，折合年率3.12%，为连续第三个月抬升; 整体CPI则受能源分项重启季调后正增长与食品价格小幅提速的共同带动，环比升至0.38%，年率2.92%， NSA指数对应324.001。与6月起步的上一轮反弹相比，本轮脉冲的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342595.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1342595.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2565629504","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利在最新发布的美国通胀展望报告中，坚定认为核心CPI的反弹并非昙花一现，而是正在形成一条持续上行的轨迹。研究团队预计，8月核心CPI将环比上涨0.35%，折合年率3.12%，为连续第三个月抬升; 整体CPI则受能源分项重启季调后正增长与食品价格小幅提速的共同带动，环比升至0.38%，年率2.92%， NSA指数对应324.001。与6月起步的上一轮反弹相比，本轮脉冲的最大特点是“商品带头、服务暂歇”，即核心商品通胀在关税传导与厂商重新定价的双重作用下继续扩大涨幅，而核心服务在7月部分项目“超前”跳升后，本月将出现温和回吐。报告提醒，商品端的涨价已得到软指标的全面印证：8月ISM支付价格指数与Markit制造业产出价格指数仍处60以上的高位，其中产出价指数自6月以来始终盘踞在疫情期外历史顶部，历史经验显示只要该指数三个月均值高于60，核心商品PCE环比读数大概率正增长;若突破70，涨幅往往进一步放大。模型显示，今年迄今关税相关成本已为核心通胀贡献约20个基点，若8月数据符合预期，累计贡献将升至30个基点，接近团队假设关税税率维持现状下总冲击的一半。具体来看，服装除鞋类依旧缺乏定价能力，新车仅微升，但家电、电子、家具等“其他商品”以及二手车价格明显走强，足以令核心商品环比从7月的0.21%扩张至0.51%。服务方面，租金通胀继续沿着0.3%下方这条缓慢下行通道运行：业主等价租金(OER)和主要居所租金分别录得0.29%与0.27%，与市场租金指标指向的四季度前持续疲软保持一致;酒店均价仍低于一季度，环比虽略改善但仍为负值。核心服务(除住房)在7月因医疗保健和航空票价异常跳升而高达0.48%，8月预计回落至0.32%。其中，牙科服务在7月创纪录上涨2.58%，团队认为存在统计噪音，本月将显著回调，带动整体医疗服务通胀从0.79%降至0.30%;航空票价虽保持正增长，但环比动能自上月高点放缓;车险在连续两个月偏弱后有望反弹至0.5%左右的趋势水平。综合看，核心服务仍具粘性，但短期脉冲已现见顶迹象。能源分项在季调基础上重新转正，食品价格亦自7月低点小幅回升，但仍远低于一季度极端读数，因此整体 CPI虽高于核心，却暂未显示出全面过热风险。模型显示，若8月核心CPI最终落在0.35%，对应的核心PCE环比将达0.34%，高于7月的0.27%，其中金融服务PCE受6—7月美股强劲回报拉动继续高增，医疗保健与航空票价则回落。值得一提的是，本月PPI将先于CPI一天公布，届时市场几乎可拼凑出完整的8月PCE拼图，数据透明度显著提升。风险层面，摩根士丹利提示，由于预测值恰好处于0.35%这一“四舍五入临界”，若商品涨幅稍有不及，未四舍五入结果可能滑落至0.30%，因此单边偏差在数学上更倾向下行。但就趋势而言，只要软指标继续高位徘徊，商品涨价就会从“一次性”变为“持续性”，而服务价格回吐的空间有限，核心通胀的底部已被抬高。对于正急切寻找“降息多少”答案的市场而言，这份报告无异于泼下一盆冷水：通胀回落的故事在2025年夏天已暂告段落，下一步，投资者需要为“更高更久”的利率环境做好心理准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZFmain":1,"ZTmain":1,"ZNmain":1,"TNmain":1,"ZBmain":1,"UBmain":1}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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