以1990年代日本互联网股票“飙升”为例，美银美林：中国AI行情还有空间，但是....

华尔街见闻2025-09-04

本文作者：龙玥来源：硬AI 全球AI热潮之下，中国AI板块炙手可热，却也引发了市场过热的担忧。 9月3日，美银美林在发布的最新《全球股票波动率洞察》报告中指出，中国AI股票的涨势正在加速，但从波动率等关键指标来看，此轮行情尚未展现出资产泡沫顶峰的典型特征，这意味着其仍有进一步上涨的潜力。但鉴于中国AI概念股供应相对有限，若散户“错失恐惧”（FOMO）情绪蔓延，大量资金追逐少量股票推升泡沫风险，...

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but....","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FOMO":1},"content_text":"本文作者：龙玥\n来源：硬AI\n全球AI热潮之下，中国AI板块炙手可热，却也引发了市场过热的担忧。\n9月3日，美银美林在发布的最新《全球股票波动率洞察》报告中指出，中国AI股票的涨势正在加速，但从波动率等关键指标来看，此轮行情尚未展现出资产泡沫顶峰的典型特征，这意味着其仍有进一步上涨的潜力。\n但鉴于中国AI概念股供应相对有限，若散户“错失恐惧”（FOMO）情绪蔓延，大量资金追逐少量股票推升泡沫风险，市场可能出现类似90年代日本互联网泡沫的极端飙升情况。\n波动率信号：泡沫尚处早期，上涨仍有空间\n自7月以来，寒武纪股价已实现超过146%的涨幅。本周初，科技巨头阿里巴巴也公布了三位数增长的AI相关收入，并一度带动股价开盘上涨18%。这一系列积极信号使得中国AI行情持续升温。\n\n但报告指出，当前中国AI股的上涨并未伴随典型的泡沫晚期特征。其追踪了一个包含阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度、寒武纪等在内的中国AI股票组合，数据显示，该组合在2025年实现了74.0%的惊人回报，但其3个月已实现波动率（Realized Volatility）为48.4%，反而低于2024年的52.1%。\n当前市场的波动率水平尚未达到资产泡沫见顶前期的典型模式。分析师说道，“波动率表明我们尚未看到资产泡沫晚期的模式……中国AI行情可能还有很大的运行空间。”\n这意味着，尽管部分股票涨幅显著，但从整体波动率来看，中国AI热潮仍处于相对早期阶段，未来或有进一步上涨的可能。报告还强调，自今年1月以来，尽管中国面临多重经济和宏观挑战，但对AI行业的看涨情绪使得做空中国股票变得颇具挑战且可能为时过早。\n\n历史镜鉴：90年代日本的“极端”泡沫会否重演？\n然而，美银美林同时提醒，中国AI市场存在重演1990年代日本互联网泡沫的风险。\n当年日本互联网泡沫之所以比美国更为极端，部分原因在于日本国内互联网股票的供应远不能满足市场需求。例如，软银在一年多时间内飙升逾3000%，波动率高达98%；而日本甲骨文（Oracle Japan）的涨幅也超过了美国甲骨文（Oracle）的两倍，展现出更强的本土泡沫效应。\n\n报告分析认为，如果中国散户投资者的“错失恐惧”（FOMO）情绪在中国AI领域蔓延，而国内AI股票的供应又不足以满足这种需求，可能会导致类似甚至更极端的市场动态。\n此外，中国投资者通过合格境内机构投资者（QDII）额度进行境外配置受到限制，可能进一步加剧这种境内供需不平衡。历史经验表明，当过多的资金追逐过少的股票时，可能加剧市场的不平衡，泡沫化风险将急剧升高。\n另外，报告还提醒了一个监管问题，其认为当市场出现“过度的非理性繁荣”时，监管或将出手打压投机行为。不过，报告也强调，任何试图给市场降温的举措，很可能只会在泡沫已经形成并有充分证据之后才会出现。\n美银美林建议，在AI泡沫进一步膨胀的长期趋势下，短期回调风险依然存在且属于正常现象，可考虑通过固定行权、低偏度对冲策略来规避风险。\n本文来自微信公众号“硬AI”，关注更多AI前沿资讯请移步这里\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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