TPU和ASIC大放量？

塔子哥的随笔2025-09-04

近期有关谷歌新技术，TPU需求上修以及要求建立服务器等消息讨论非常多。许多机构上修了相关定制芯片以及服务器，连接的测算。杰富瑞在最新的报告中指出，谷歌，meta和其他巨头的定制芯片如火如荼，这对博通，迈威尔等构成利好。谷歌TPU预测持续上修：谷歌在AI开发领域取得显著成功，TPU无疑是支撑其增长的关键要素。我们此前认为谷歌的ASIC开发已趋于成熟，在数量方面不应出现超预期变动。但在本季度更新中，...

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ASIC侧项目：在我们此前报告中曾提及，Meta在ASIC开发方面始终采取激进策略。从其5nm到3nm制程的ASIC产品，平均销售单价提升5倍，出货量几乎翻倍。Meta在2nm制程节点启动侧项目的举措再次超出我们预期。根据调研，其2nm世代将启动两个ASIC项目，预计均将于2027年下半年开始量产。高端项目Olympus将继续外包予博通，因Meta旨在打造性能最强的ASIC芯片——每颗芯片将搭载2个计算晶粒与12颗HBM3E高带宽内存（12层堆叠）。目前鲜有云服务提供商尝试配置12颗HBM，Meta有望成为首家采用该配置的企业。另一方面，针对低端项目，Meta正在探索采用客户自有技术模式的可能性，即由其内部团队完成前端设计，后端设计则外包予第三方。供应商遴选正在进行中，竞标方包括迈威尔科技、联发科、Alchip与GUC。我们将此称为\"侧项目\"。因其规模可能不及Olympus，但对参与竞争的设计服务供应商而言，该项目预期将带来高单价收益，值得全力争取。其他ASIC项目重点信息更新：我们对AWS 2026年ASIC的预测基本保持不变。由于AWS属于二级ASIC客户，其能否获得更多CoWoS产能取决于其他客户释放分配额度，或AWS自身调整产品组合。根据调研，AWS正考虑将Trainium芯片从2.5代直接升级至3代架构。OpenAI的ASIC预测维持不变，预计从2026年第四季度开始量产，规模达13.6万单位。xAI的ASIC项目能见度极低，暂无法做出可靠预测。变动最大的是苹果ASIC项目。根据调研，该项目因内部战略分歧已推迟进度——部分团队认为自研ASIC至关重要，另一阵营则坚持已采购的英伟达GPU足以满足需求。按当前进展，苹果ASIC在2026年实现量产的可能性极低。新兴ASIC项目方面，Oracle的ASIC值得关注。根据调研，其量产时间可能落在2027-2028年，终端客户可能为某中国超大规模企业。相关图表如下：完整报告，其他外资研报，最新调研纪要，宏观数据解读和交易机会已经更新，欢迎大家进入讨论：","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 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