长江证券：阿里云周期拐点已至阿里巴巴(09988)有望在AI时代再次腾飞

智通财经网2025-08-30

智通财经APP获悉，长江证券发布研报称，阿里巴巴(09988)26 财年第一季度实现云收入333.98 亿元，同比增长26%，创下三年最高增速;实现云业务经调利润率8.8%，同比基本持平;本季度资本开支为387 亿元，同比增长220%。2024 年开始随着国内 AI 全面加速，基础资源需求快速增长，云基础资源重归成长上升通道，迎来第一次价值重估。阿里最新一季的财报中云收入增速上升至26%达到...

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日，据《华尔街日报》报道，阿里巴巴正在开发一款新的人工智能芯片，意在填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。目前，这款芯片已进入测试阶段，主要面向更广泛的AI推理任务，并与英伟达的架构兼容。随着产业链布局的逐步深入和完善，阿里巴巴有望在AI  时代再次腾飞。事件描述：阿里巴巴披露26 财年第一季度财报：公司26 财年第一季度实现云收入333.98  亿元，同比增长26%，创下三年最高增速;实现云业务经调利润率8.8%，同比基本持平;本季度资本开支为387 亿元，同比增长220%。长江证券主要观点如下：AI 驱动新周期来临，随着阿里Capex 投入节奏加快阿里云周期拐点已至。自DeepSeek发布以来，市场逐渐意识到云资源是一切AI  应用的根基，阿里云作为国内公有云最头部厂商迎来价值重估。从历史上看，应用启动云基础资源先行，2024 年开始随着国内AI  推进全面加速，基础资源需求快速增长，2024Q4 阿里云同比增长 13%重归两位数增长。2025 年2 月阿里提出3 年投入 3800 亿建设云+AI 硬件基础设施超过过去十年总和，Capex  是云基础资源爆发的前瞻指标，随着阿里云的Capex 投入节奏持续加快，未来阿里云增速有望进一步抬升。厚积薄发，云收入提速有望带动阿里云迎来全面重估。阿里云的增长曾经经历了高速增长→增长停滞→AI 时代重回增长的过程，2018  年之后随着移动互联网创新周期结束叠加运营商、火山引擎发力公有云导致竞争加剧，阿里云营收放缓至个位数，由于云本身不盈利且成长进入瓶颈，导致阿里云空有收入规模，但对市值的贡献微乎其微。2024  年开始随着国内 AI  全面加速，基础资源需求快速增长，云基础资源重归成长上升通道，迎来第一次价值重估。阿里最新一季的财报中云收入增速上升至26%达到三年来最高水平，或代表阿里云的新增长周期再度开启。在 AI 时代，阿里云的护城河与竞争优势更强于互联网周期，是AI  时代最核心资产。通过复盘，发现阿里云在互联网周期中主要依靠先发、规模、技术三层优势取胜，从而成为国内公有云行业的龙头企业。回归本质看，云的核心是比拼成本与附加值，AI  时代阿里坐拥通义模型、平头哥等顶尖模型与芯片团队，竞争力相比过往全面提升，AI 时代阿里云盈利能力或将迎来系统性抬升，带动二次价值重估。模型方面，近期通义AI  大模型实现“N 连发”，接连开源新版本千问3 非思考基础模型、推理模型和AI  编程模型，分别斩获基础模型、编程模型、推理模型等主流领域全球开源冠军。芯片方面，2025年8 月29  日，据《华尔街日报》报道，阿里巴巴正在开发一款新的人工智能芯片，意在填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。目前，这款芯片已进入测试阶段，主要面向更广泛的AI推理任务，并与英伟达的架构兼容。随着产业链布局的逐步深入和完善，阿里巴巴有望在AI  时代再次腾飞。风险提示1、AI 技术发展不及预期风险;2、行业竞争加剧风险;3、下游应用发展不及预期风险。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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长江证券：阿里云周期拐点已至 阿里巴巴(09988)有望在AI时代再次腾飞

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长江证券：阿里云周期拐点已至阿里巴巴(09988)有望在AI时代再次腾飞