SEA：2Q25EBITDA超出彭博一致预期5%；管理层上调GARENA指引

中金公司2025-08-14

2Q25 经调整EBITDA 超出彭博一致预期5%Sea Limited（Sea）在2025 年第二季度表现强劲，Shopee GMV 和数字金融服务（DFS）实现了显著增长。收入增长至53 亿美元（同增38%）。经调整EBITDA 达到8.29 亿美元（同增85%），超出彭博一致预期5%。管理层维持对Shopee 和DFS 的2025 年指引，预计Shopee GMV 将同增约20%，盈利改善；...

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EBITDA Beats Bloomberg Consensus Estimate by 5%; Management Raises GARENA Guidance","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":1,"SEA":1},"content_text":"2Q25 经调整EBITDA 超出彭博一致预期5%Sea Limited（Sea）在2025 年第二季度表现强劲，Shopee GMV 和数字金融服务（DFS）实现了显著增长。收入增长至53 亿美元（同增38%）。经调整EBITDA 达到8.29 亿美元（同增85%），超出彭博一致预期5%。管理层维持对Shopee 和DFS 的2025 年指引，预计Shopee GMV 将同增约20%，盈利改善；贷款规模同比增速超过Shopee GMV 增速；且1H25Shopee GMV 同增25%，预计这一趋势将延续至3Q25，我们预计全年GMV 同比增长有望超过20%。Garena 指引被上调，预计全年流水将同比增长30%以上（此前预期为两位数增长）。发展趋势Shopee 2Q25 保持强劲增长，GMV 达到298 亿美元（同增28%），总订单量为33 亿单（同增29%），得益于亚洲和巴西的增长策略。经调整EBITDA 为2.28 亿美元，低于1Q25 的2.644 亿美元，主要由于促销活动和VIP 计划导致成本上升，EBITDA 利润率（占GMV）降至0.8%（1Q25为0.9%），然而这些成本投入预计将推动未来增长。Monee 2Q25 贷款产品持续扩张，收入达8.83 亿美元（同增70%）。账内外贷款额达69 亿美元，同增97%。经调整EBITDA 增至2.55 亿美元（同增55%）。不良贷款率改善至1.0%（1Q25 为1.1%），风险管理审慎。Garena：战略内容提升用户参与度。流水达到6.61 亿美元（同增23%），收入为5.59 亿美元（同增28%），得益于Free Fire 8 周年推出的新地图。经调整EBITDA 为3.68 亿美元（同增22%）。季度付费用户同增18%至6180 万，付费用户比例为9.3%（2Q24 为8.1%）。盈利预测与估值我们将2025 年收入预测上调1%至222 亿美元，将2026 年收入预测上调2%至288 亿美元，得益于Free Fire 和Monee 贷款规模带来的收入增长。我们认为，Monee 在Shopee 内外贷款业务竞争优势支持增长预期。由于Garena 盈利能力改善，我们将2025 经调整EBITDA 预测上调2%至39.5亿美元，将2026 经调整EBITDA 预测上调1%至63.3 亿美元。我们继续采用分部估值法，对Shopee 用25 倍2026E EV/EBITDA，对DFS 用20 倍2025E EV/EBITDA，对Garena 用16 倍2025E EV/EBITDA（此前为14 倍，由于Free Fire 增长加速，EBITDA 预测增加）。我们维持“跑赢行业”评级，并保持目标价187 美元，具备7.4%上行空间。风险数字娱乐板块存在储备产品创新风险；电商业务在竞争中存在不确定性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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