关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部

智通财经2025-08-15

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2559914079?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-08-15 21:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2559914079","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n关税风险消退+定价潜力，大摩看好苹果(AAPL.US)：iPhone销量预测上调至5400万部\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-15 21:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4574","symbol_name":"无人驾驶","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1330431.html","article_id":"2559914079","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2559914079","pubTimestamp":1755263881,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部上调8%至5400万部。值得注意的是，此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型，各新增200万部产能。展望2025年下半年，分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间，同比下降5%至1%。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平，9月季度存在更大的补库空间，这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU1582986359.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE00B4YYXB79.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","MACW.SI":"APPLE 3xLongSG261006","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","AAPL":"苹果","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"translate_title":"Tariff risks recede + pricing potential, Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Apple (AAPL.US): iPhone sales forecast raised to 54 million units","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利上调了对苹果公司(AAPL.US)iPhone 9月当季销量的预测，将原本预计的5000万部(同比下降7%)上调8%至5400万部(同比持平)。以埃里克·伍德林为首的分析团队指出，这一调整源于多重积极因素：iPhone更换周期延长带来的被压抑需求、即将推出的新机型设计、结构性毛利率改善等，这些去年7月支撑其乐观预期的关键因素仍持续发挥作用。分析师强调，此前担忧的峰值关税风险(如第232条款)已基本消退，监管对短期业绩的冲击也弱于市场预期(尽管仍是长期风险)。此外，苹果的定价策略被低估——其服务价格已两年未调整，未来可通过这一杠杆释放增长潜力。当前苹果股价相对标普500指数的交易水平，与过去五年平均水平基本一致，估值具备支撑。值得注意的是，此次产量修正主要针对iPhone 16和Pro Max机型，各新增200万部产能。不过摩根士丹利表示，其内部预测的5500万部销量已部分涵盖这一增量，较修正后的5400万部预测高出约80万部。展望2025年下半年，分析师预计iPhone 17系列产量将维持在8000万至8500万部区间，同比下降5%至1%(2024年同期为8400万部)。同时指出，12月季度iPhone生产的季节性波动通常大于9月季度，过去五年(排除2020-2021年疫情特殊期)的环比增幅范围在35%至71%之间。该团队还观察到，当前市场对iPhone的估计正呈现上调趋势，而历史上苹果股价在估计修正期间常伴随估值扩张。结合渠道库存已低于正常水平，9月季度存在更大的补库空间，这些因素共同支撑了其对iPhone销售前景的乐观预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2559914079","isCrawlerRequest":true}