中金：空调销售高增新冷年制冷剂需求有望维持高位

智通财经2025-08-11

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，根据百川盈孚数据，1H25制冷剂R32/R134a/R125产量分别为13.8/7.6/5.7万吨，约占全年配额的49%/37%/34%。8月末空调新冷年临近，尽管空调产量7月以来有所走低，但终端消费量持续走高，结合当前销售形势，空调进入新冷年后排产量预计维持高位，制冷剂需求有望得到提振。25年中及26年政策端预期稳定，制冷剂价格淡季涨势不改，空调新冷年需求有望...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：空调销售高增 新冷年制冷剂需求有望维持高位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-11 16:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1327982.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，根据百川盈孚数据，1H25制冷剂R32/R134a/R125产量分别为13.8/7.6/5.7万吨，约占全年配额的49%/37%/34%。8月末空调新冷年临近，尽管空调产量7月以来有所走低，但终端消费量持续走高，结合当前销售形势，空调进入新冷年后排产量预计维持高位，制冷剂需求有望得到提振。25年中及26年政策端预期稳定，制冷剂价格淡季涨势不改，空调新冷年需求有望...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1327982.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0188","symbol_name":"融资融券","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1327982.html","article_id":"2558985630","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558985630","pubTimestamp":1754900459,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"25年中及26年政策端预期稳定，制冷剂价格淡季涨势不改，空调新冷年需求有望维持高位，市场预期有望逐步改善，板块估值有望得到修复。制冷剂2025年供需环境相对平衡，部分品种相对充裕，增加配额的必要性不高，年中及2026年制冷剂配额政策预计维持稳定。结合当前销售形势，空调进入新冷年后排产量预计维持高位，制冷剂需求有望得到提振。风险因素制冷剂政策出现大幅调整，空调需求大幅回落。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600160":"巨化股份","600378":"昊华科技","600673":"东阳光","603379":"三美股份","605020":"永和股份","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0077":"质押式回购","BK0015":"沪股通50","BK0176":"可燃冰","BK0044":"CDM项目","BK0028":"国家队","BK0066":"新型煤化工","00189":"东岳集团","BK0265":"综合","BK0070":"员工持股","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK0010":"央企","BK1511":"疑似财技股","BK1522":"燃料电池","BK0003":"超级电容","BK0199":"乙醇汽油","BK1129":"特种化学制品","BK0229":"化学制品"},"translate_title":"CICC: Air-conditioning sales increase rapidly, refrigerant demand is expected to remain high in the new cold year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600160":1,"600378":1,"600673":1,"603379":1,"605020":1,"00189":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，根据百川盈孚数据，1H25制冷剂R32/R134a/R125产量分别为13.8/7.6/5.7万吨，约占全年配额的49%/37%/34%。8月末空调新冷年临近，尽管空调产量7月以来有所走低，但终端消费量持续走高，结合当前销售形势，空调进入新冷年后排产量预计维持高位，制冷剂需求有望得到提振。25年中及26年政策端预期稳定，制冷剂价格淡季涨势不改，空调新冷年需求有望维持高位，市场预期有望逐步改善，板块估值有望得到修复。中金主要观点如下：制冷剂政策端预期稳定根据百川盈孚数据，1H25制冷剂R32/R134a/R125产量分别为13.8/7.6/5.7万吨，约占全年配额的49%/37%/34%；1H25制冷剂R32/R134a出口量分别为4.0/5.0万吨，约占全年出口配额的41%/39%。制冷剂2025年供需环境相对平衡，部分品种相对充裕，增加配额的必要性不高，年中及2026年制冷剂配额政策预计维持稳定。制冷剂价格淡季不淡尽管进入7月以来空调产量/排产同比转负，但制冷剂价格涨势不改。 根据氟务在线数据，R32最新企业报价已逼近60000元/吨。三代制冷剂进入配额期后，定价权已由需求端切换至供给端，空调需求端进入阶段性排产淡季并不主导制冷剂价格走势。从海外价格看，欧洲R32价格在4Q24已接近2万欧元/吨，我国制冷剂价格仍有相对充裕的上行空间，制冷剂价格“天花板”仍较远。新冷年制冷剂需求有望维持高位2025年8月末空调新冷年临近，尽管空调产量7月以来有所走低，但终端消费量持续走高，根据奥维云网公开的数据显示，至7 月中旬，国内空调市场线下体系的零售额同比增长了19.63%，相应的零售量同比增幅为16.15%；同期线上平台空调产品的零售额同比增长了26.17%，零售量增幅更是达到了30.28%。尤其是在东北、西北等市场，近期还出现了断货现象，华东、华中等地的销售势头同样是积极乐观。结合当前销售形势，空调进入新冷年后排产量预计维持高位，制冷剂需求有望得到提振。投资建议1H25制冷剂企业业绩释放后板块估值有所回落，一方面，24年中制冷剂政策端出现松动，25年中市场对政策端能否维持稳定预期仍存在担忧；另一方面，空调排产数据转负引发市场对制冷剂后续需求端的担忧。中金认为，25年中及26年政策端预期稳定，制冷剂价格淡季涨势不改，空调新冷年需求有望维持高位，市场预期有望逐步改善，板块估值有望得到修复，产业链相关企业包括巨化股份(600160.SH)、东岳集团(00189)、昊华科技(600378.SH)、东阳光(600673.SH)(考虑到液冷及机器人板块带来的估值提升，目标价上调35%至16.88元)、三美股份(603379.SH)、永和股份(605020.SH)等。风险因素制冷剂政策出现大幅调整，空调需求大幅回落。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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中金：空调销售高增 新冷年制冷剂需求有望维持高位

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中金：空调销售高增新冷年制冷剂需求有望维持高位