能源金属行业动态报告：锂矿停产导致月度级别短缺供给收紧需求走强价格上扬

中信建投证券2025-08-10

核心观点锂：江西某大型云母锂矿权证到期面临停产引发供给担忧，截至目前因权证问题涉及江西、青海多个企业，合计年产能10 万吨以上。SMM 统计，7 月碳酸锂产量8.15 万吨，其中辉石锂4.5万吨、云母锂1.8 万吨、盐湖锂1.2 万吨、回收0.6 万吨，若上述停产全部落地将影响月度产量万吨以上，将导致市场月度级别供给短缺，年度平衡表来看，2025 年过剩量从17.1 万吨下修至约14 万吨。若停产...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2558689369?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-08-10 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2558689369","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"能源金属行业动态报告：锂矿停产导致月度级别短缺 供给收紧需求走强价格上扬","media":"中信建投证券","content":"<div>\n<p>核心观点锂：江西某大型云母锂矿权证到期面临停产引发供给担忧，截至目前因权证问题涉及江西、青海多个企业，合计年产能10 万吨以上。SMM 统计，7 月碳酸锂产量8.15 万吨，其中辉石锂4.5万吨、云母锂1.8 万吨、盐湖锂1.2 万吨、回收0.6 万吨，若上述停产全部落地将影响月度产量万吨以上，将导致市场月度级别供给短缺，年度平衡表来看，2025 年过剩量从17.1 万吨下修至约14 万吨。若停产...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250810194121a4800d0c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>能源金属行业动态报告：锂矿停产导致月度级别短缺 供给收紧需求走强价格上扬</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n能源金属行业动态报告：锂矿停产导致月度级别短缺 供给收紧需求走强价格上扬\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-10 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250810194121a4800d0c&s=b><strong>中信建投证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点锂：江西某大型云母锂矿权证到期面临停产引发供给担忧，截至目前因权证问题涉及江西、青海多个企业，合计年产能10 万吨以上。SMM 统计，7 月碳酸锂产量8.15 万吨，其中辉石锂4.5万吨、云母锂1.8 万吨、盐湖锂1.2 万吨、回收0.6 万吨，若上述停产全部落地将影响月度产量万吨以上，将导致市场月度级别供给短缺，年度平衡表来看，2025 年过剩量从17.1 万吨下修至约14 万吨。若停产...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250810194121a4800d0c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"01772","symbol_name":"赣锋锂业","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250810194121a4800d0c&s=b","article_id":"2558689369","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250810194121a4800d0c&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558689369","pubTimestamp":1754755200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"消费旺季临近，供给收紧需求走强，或导致短期锂价大幅上扬。江西矿端传言持续，近期或有实际情况落地，相关企业涉及碳酸锂产量较大。碳酸锂厂家出货相对积极，库存小幅下滑；下游维持安全库存周期，刚需补货偏好。需求端，终端储能维持增速，新能源汽车消费增速放缓。电镀级产品价格因电子电镀行业需求支撑有望保持韧性。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"399366":"能源金属","600366":"宁波韵升","603799":"华友钴业","01772":"赣锋锂业","09696":"天齐锂业","BK0084":"稀土永磁","BK0235":"非金矿物","BK0188":"融资融券","06680":"金力永磁"},"translate_title":"Energy metal industry dynamic report: Lithium mine suspension leads to monthly shortages, tightening supply, stronger demand, rising prices","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"399366":1,"600366":0.9,"603799":0.9,"01772":0.9,"09696":0.9,"06680":0.9},"content_text":"核心观点锂：江西某大型云母锂矿权证到期面临停产引发供给担忧，截至目前因权证问题涉及江西、青海多个企业，合计年产能10 万吨以上。SMM 统计，7 月碳酸锂产量8.15 万吨，其中辉石锂4.5万吨、云母锂1.8 万吨、盐湖锂1.2 万吨、回收0.6 万吨，若上述停产全部落地将影响月度产量万吨以上，将导致市场月度级别供给短缺，年度平衡表来看，2025 年过剩量从17.1 万吨下修至约14 万吨。若停产时间持续到2026 年全年，26 年过剩量有望降至10 万吨以内的紧平衡状态。消费旺季临近，供给收紧需求走强，或导致短期锂价大幅上扬。行业动态信息锂：据百川盈孚，本周工业级碳酸锂市场均价为6.8 万元/吨，较上周持平；电池级粗粒氢氧化锂均价为6.6 万元/吨，较上周下降0.4%。供给端，本周碳酸锂产量上涨，江西、四川、广西等地均有企业增产，新投产企业产能爬产，其他厂家整体生产持稳。江西矿端传言持续，近期或有实际情况落地，相关企业涉及碳酸锂产量较大。7 月智利出口国内锂盐环比大增，预计8 月进口增量。碳酸锂厂家出货相对积极，库存小幅下滑；下游维持安全库存周期，刚需补货偏好。中游贸易收货积极，持货商交仓意愿增加，期货仓单量涨至1.5 万吨以上。需求端，终端储能维持增速，新能源汽车消费增速放缓。下游整体需求环比小幅上涨，三元材料头部企业增量明显，磷酸铁锂较稳。下游散单维持刚需采购，周内补货情绪偏强。资源端，国内锂资源自主可控意义凸显，建议关注永兴材料、中矿资源、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业等。镍：本周LME 镍价为15115 元/吨，较上周上涨0.6%；上期所镍价为121180 元/吨，较上周上涨1.2%。本周SHFE 镍库存2.62 万吨，LME 镍库存21.22 万吨，合计库存23.84 万吨，较上周增长1.5%。本周国内硫酸镍产量预计32200 吨，较上周产量减少，开工率同步下调。目前个别镍盐厂家增加产量，大部分企业维持正常生产，部分镍盐生产企业计划延续减产或停产检修。整体来看，硫酸镍供应有所收缩。硫酸镍需求主要由新能源领域拉动，全球新能源汽车渗透率提升及储能装机量增长，推动其需求增加。但需求增长面临一定压力，磷酸铁锂电池占比提升及钠离子电池商业化加速，对硫酸镍需求形成挤压。电镀级产品价格因电子电镀行业需求支撑有望保持韧性。镍建议关注华友钴业等。稀土&磁材：本周稀土价格偏弱运行。截止到本周四，氧化镨钕市场均价52.15 万元/吨，较上周五价格下调1.88%；氧化镝市场均价162 万元/吨，较上周五价格下调1.22%；氧化铽市场均价702.5 万元/吨，较上周五价格下调1.13%。从供需基本面看，供应短期仍偏紧，进口矿数量减少，同时国内指标不明，市场传言有增量，但具体产出目前有限，7 月份镨钕产量有少量下降，主要在于当前指标不足，后市具体增幅有待观望，短期内镨钕产品相对紧张。需求表现较好，7 月份钕铁硼毛坯量均有不同程度增加，大厂开工较满，新增订单尚可，企业库存量不大，随着市场波动少量采购，且国际端多单镨单钕需求增加，市场价格支撑偏强。建议关注宁波韵升、金力永磁等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2558689369","isCrawlerRequest":true}

能源金属行业动态报告：锂矿停产导致月度级别短缺 供给收紧需求走强价格上扬

精彩评论

能源金属行业动态报告：锂矿停产导致月度级别短缺供给收紧需求走强价格上扬