农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动

华福证券2025-08-11

（以下内容从华福证券《农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动》研报附件原文摘录）投资要点：生猪养殖：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动。（1）本周猪价承压下行。月初集团场缩量拉涨带动猪价短期偏强；随后供应节奏恢复、叠加消费弱势，猪价下跌。8月8日全国生猪均价为13.67元/公斤，周环比-0.42元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量基本持平。近期猪价跌至低位，屠企低价分割...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2558659438?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-08-11 18:07","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2558659438","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动","media":"华福证券","content":"<div>\n<p>（以下内容从华福证券《农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动》研报附件原文摘录）投资要点：生猪养殖：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动。（1）本周猪价承压下行。月初集团场缩量拉涨带动猪价短期偏强；随后供应节奏恢复、叠加消费弱势，猪价下跌。8月8日全国生猪均价为13.67元/公斤，周环比-0.42元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量基本持平。近期猪价跌至低位，屠企低价分割...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025081118074694dc7697&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-11 18:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025081118074694dc7697&s=b><strong>华福证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（以下内容从华福证券《农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动》研报附件原文摘录）投资要点：生猪养殖：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动。（1）本周猪价承压下行。月初集团场缩量拉涨带动猪价短期偏强；随后供应节奏恢复、叠加消费弱势，猪价下跌。8月8日全国生猪均价为13.67元/公斤，周环比-0.42元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量基本持平。近期猪价跌至低位，屠企低价分割...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025081118074694dc7697&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0240","symbol_name":"畜牧业","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025081118074694dc7697&s=b","article_id":"2558659438","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025081118074694dc7697&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2558659438","pubTimestamp":1754906862,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"投资要点：生猪养殖：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动。8月8日全国生猪均价为13.67元/公斤，周环比-0.42元/公斤。近期猪价跌至低位，屠企低价分割比例抬升，带动屠宰量低位回升；但消费淡季压制需求，增量空间仍有限。7月多数三方口径能繁环比增幅缩窄/转负，政策产能调控效果或逐步显现。8月8日蛋鸡苗3.85元/羽，周环比持平。风险提示动物疫病发生、大宗商品价格波动、自然灾害等风险","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"605296":"神农集团","BK0240":"畜牧业"},"translate_title":"Regular report on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry: The growth rate of the three parties' fertile reproduction generally narrowed in July, paying attention to changes in pig production capacity","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"605296":0.9},"content_text":"（以下内容从华福证券《农林牧渔行业定期报告：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动》研报附件原文摘录）投资要点：生猪养殖：7月三方能繁增幅普遍收窄，关注生猪产能变动。（1）本周猪价承压下行。月初集团场缩量拉涨带动猪价短期偏强；随后供应节奏恢复、叠加消费弱势，猪价下跌。8月8日全国生猪均价为13.67元/公斤，周环比-0.42元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量基本持平。近期猪价跌至低位，屠企低价分割比例抬升，带动屠宰量低位回升；但消费淡季压制需求，增量空间仍有限。本周样本屠企日均屠宰量为13.71万头，周环比+0.05%。（3）本周生猪出栏均重继续下降。规模养殖集团延续降重出栏，同时夏季高温天气持续，对猪只的采食量和生长速度造成一定影响，集团出栏均重继续下滑。截至8月7日当周生猪出栏均重127.80kg（周环比-0.18kg），其中集团场均重123.54kg（周环比-0.25kg）、散户均重142.45kg（周环比+0.28kg）。短期来看，8月钢联/卓创/涌益样本企业出栏预计环比+5.26%/+7.01%/+6.60%，供应压力环比增大，猪价整体承压。下旬气温降低和开学备货或边际提振需求，关注养殖端出栏节奏&二育补栏情况。长期来看，7月23日农业农村召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，强调“严格落实产能调控措施”，包括合理淘汰能繁母猪、适当调减能繁母猪存栏、减少二次育肥、控制肥猪出栏体重、严控新增产能以及严厉查处屠宰检疫违法行为。近期政策多次强调产能调控，有望加速行业低效产能出清，推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。7月卓创、钢联、涌益口径能繁环比-1.36%、+0.00%、+0.52%，上月环比+0.75%、+0.29%、+0.12%。7月多数三方口径能繁环比增幅缩窄/转负，政策产能调控效果或逐步显现。建议关注牧原股份、德康农牧、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农集团等。家禽板块：（1）白鸡：供应阶段性减量，价格继续上行。受前期养殖亏损影响，7月行业在产父母代产能去化，导致当前鸡苗出苗量偏少，鸡源供应偏紧，白鸡价格持续上涨。8月初泰国部分工厂鸡肉产品输华申请海关暂停受理，受此影响爪翅类拉涨整体产品售价，白鸡分割品价格上涨。8月8日行业白羽肉鸡价格为7.14元/公斤，周环比+0.31元/公斤，行业肉鸡苗价格为3.13元/羽，周环比+0.56元/羽，鸡产品价格8.85元/公斤，周环比+0.31元/公斤。展望后市，当前海外禽流感疫情持续蔓延，法国引种虽放开，美国、新西兰引种仍中断，白鸡上游产能或进一步收缩，关注引种受限持续性。建议关注益生股份、圣农发展、禾丰股份等。（2）蛋鸡：苗价持平，蛋价下跌。7月梅雨季结束后蛋价季节性反弹，但受高存栏压制及终端高价接受度有限影响，月末涨势放缓并小幅回落。8月4-8日鸡蛋均价6.23元/kg，周环比-0.51元/kg。后续开学备货&中秋国庆消费旺季的带动下，蛋价有望反弹。8月8日蛋鸡苗3.85元/羽，周环比持平。当前海外禽流感疫情持续蔓延，美国引种难度加大，优质鸡苗供给缺口或延续，苗价高景气有望持续。建议关注晓鸣股份。农产品：本周豆粕期现偏强。期货端，8月8日豆粕2601合约收3094元/吨，周环比+57元/吨。市场仍担忧四季度大豆缺口，中国对巴西大豆采购需求支撑近期巴西大豆升贴水走强，在进口成本驱动下国内豆粕远月盘面延续偏强态势。现货端，受期货盘面带动，现货价格跟涨。8月8日豆粕现货价3008元/吨，周环比+10元/吨。继续关注美豆天气情况、中美贸易政策变化、8月USDA供需报告等。建议关注豆粕ETF。风险提示动物疫病发生、大宗商品价格波动、自然灾害等风险","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2558659438","isCrawlerRequest":true}