不止于7月高光！小摩：苹果(AAPL.US)关税解套台积电(TSM.US)Q4及明年业绩将再冲高

智通财经2025-08-11

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发表研报表示，对台积电(TSM.US)的业绩前景持乐观态度，预计其在多方面因素推动下将保持强劲增长，维持台积电台股“增持”评级，目标价1275新台币。三季度营收有望达指引上限该行指出，台积电7月营收表现亮眼，同比增长26%，环比增长23%，占该机构第三季度营收预估的34%。分析师预计，台积电第三季度营收将接近指引区间的上限(318亿至330亿美元，或新台币9220-...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1327976.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发表研报表示，对台积电(TSM.US)的业绩前景持乐观态度，预计其在多方面因素推动下将保持强劲增长，维持台积电台股“增持”评级，目标价1275新台币。三季度营收有望达指引上限该行指出，台积电7月营收表现亮眼，同比增长26%，环比增长23%，占该机构第三季度营收预估的34%。分析师预计，台积电第三季度营收将接近指引区间的上限(318亿至330亿美元，或新台币9220-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1327976.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0353189763.USD","symbol_name":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) 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JPMorgan: Apple (AAPL.US) tariff unwinding, TSMC (TSM.US) Q4 and next year's performance will rise again","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1,"EWT":0.6,"TWmain":1,"03145":0.6,"AAPL":1,"MACW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发表研报表示，对台积电(TSM.US)的业绩前景持乐观态度，预计其在多方面因素推动下将保持强劲增长，维持台积电台股“增持”评级，目标价1275新台币。三季度营收有望达指引上限该行指出，台积电7月营收表现亮眼，同比增长26%，环比增长23%，占该机构第三季度营收预估的34%。分析师预计，台积电第三季度营收将接近指引区间的上限(318亿至330亿美元，或新台币9220-9570亿元)，这主要得益于智能手机平台(尤其是为苹果(AAPL.US)服务的N3工艺)的持续强劲表现以及高性能计算(HPC)的稳定发展势头。在具体工艺节点方面，N3和N5工艺节点系列的利用率达到100%以上，而N7系列由于苹果WiFi和用于C1调制解调器的收发器产量提升，在2025年下半年可能会表现更好。同时，尽管非人工智能(AI)领域在2025年上半年表现强劲后可能有所放缓，但AI领域持续增长，且近期服务器整体表现强劲，可能会在未来1-2个季度为HPC带来额外增长。苹果相关利好或提升四季度业绩近期，整个供应链中iPhone 17的电子制造服务(EMS)产量有所增加，单位预期上调了约5-10%。加之苹果近期获得关税减免，摩根大通认为，这一积极因素将在2025年四季度末反映在台积电的营收中，并可能使台积电2025财年以美元计价的营收增长率接近35%。展望2026年，苹果或将推出可折叠iPhone，并有可能将其全部iPhone芯片升级至N2工艺，除了强劲的AI需求增长外，苹果有望成为台积电2026年健康增长的驱动因素。232条款影响趋缓，定价能力有望增强摩根大通指出，美国232条款调查和半导体关税的影响似乎更为温和，大多数供应链(如苹果、英伟达(NVDA.US)等)免于100%的半导体关税。这对台积电的客户而言是持续利好。此外，台积电在美国的产能扩张如今对其所有客户获得232条款相关半导体关税豁免至关重要。摩根大通认为，这将在未来几年显著增强台积电的定价能力。对三星与特斯拉合作的看法近期，三星(SSNLF.US)和特斯拉(TSLA.US)宣布将达成一项到2033年价值超过160亿美元的长期供应协议，特斯拉表示三星将为其制造用于自动驾驶的Al6芯片以及未来用于人形机器人等的其他芯片。从表面上看，这对台积电来说是市场份额的损失，因为AI5(基于N3工艺)以及Dojo 1和2 AI专用集成电路都由台积电生产。不过，摩根大通认为，台积电无法在亚利桑那州工厂为特斯拉分配足够的产能。并且，特斯拉并非台积电的前10大客户，历史上其大部分晶圆需求(如HW3和HW4)均与三星合作。摩根大通还认为，台积电在首批N2产品中应能占据90-95%的市场份额，早期信号显示A14的市场份额也类似。2026年增长预期展望2026年，摩根大通预计台积电将继续保持强劲增长(该行预期以美元计价增长19%)，这主要得益于先进制程节点的价格上涨、N2产能的强劲提升、AI专用集成电路/GPU客户升级至N3P工艺，以及持续强劲的AI需求。苹果iPhone需求的持续增长也可能为2026年的业绩带来上行风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2558562630","isCrawlerRequest":true}

不止于7月高光！小摩：苹果(AAPL.US)关税解套 台积电(TSM.US)Q4及明年业绩将再冲高

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不止于7月高光！小摩：苹果(AAPL.US)关税解套台积电(TSM.US)Q4及明年业绩将再冲高