食品饮料行业：抢占B端乳品新蓝海国产替代正当时

华泰证券2025-08-08

在全球供应链调整和消费升级的共同推动下，中国乳制品行业正迎来从“规模扩张”向“价值提升”的战略转型，奶酪、黄油等固体乳制品凭借高营养价值和广泛的用途，正成为推动餐饮业创新和健康食品发展的重要力量。当前中国B 端乳制品市场发展空间广阔（我们测算得24 年行业规模已超400亿），同时，反倾销政策+原奶成本优势+生产技术改进共同驱动B 端乳制品行业国产替代趋势持续演绎。本文将聚焦国内高品质乳品需求，借鉴...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250808162200a47ccbce&s=b><strong>华泰证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在全球供应链调整和消费升级的共同推动下，中国乳制品行业正迎来从“规模扩张”向“价值提升”的战略转型，奶酪、黄油等固体乳制品凭借高营养价值和广泛的用途，正成为推动餐饮业创新和健康食品发展的重要力量。当前中国B 端乳制品市场发展空间广阔（我们测算得24 年行业规模已超400亿），同时，反倾销政策+原奶成本优势+生产技术改进共同驱动B 端乳制品行业国产替代趋势持续演绎。本文将聚焦国内高品质乳品需求，借鉴...</p>\n\n<a 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products","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159843":1,"600882":0.9,"600887":0.9,"000807.SH":1},"content_text":"在全球供应链调整和消费升级的共同推动下，中国乳制品行业正迎来从“规模扩张”向“价值提升”的战略转型，奶酪、黄油等固体乳制品凭借高营养价值和广泛的用途，正成为推动餐饮业创新和健康食品发展的重要力量。当前中国B 端乳制品市场发展空间广阔（我们测算得24 年行业规模已超400亿），同时，反倾销政策+原奶成本优势+生产技术改进共同驱动B 端乳制品行业国产替代趋势持续演绎。本文将聚焦国内高品质乳品需求，借鉴日本乳制品行业发展的历史经验，深入分析中国B 端乳制品市场的发展现状、未来趋势以及领先企业的发展策略，探讨行业价值链转型带来的投资机遇。趋势：高附加值赛道重构行业增长逻辑中国乳制品行业正处于结构性转型期，液态奶增长放缓的同时，奶酪、黄油等固态乳制品在B 端餐饮场景推动下快速成长。这一发展路径与日本的经验相似，日本的乳制品整体人均消费量于2000 年前后见顶，新鲜牛乳量价齐跌、酸奶及奶酪量价齐升，高附加值创新推动结构性升级。当前B 端乳制品市场的国产替代趋势显著，主要受三方面因素推动：政策端我国对欧盟乳制品实施反补贴调查，成本端国内原奶价格优势显现，及国内企业在技术端的持续突破，逐步缩小与进口产品的品质差距。借鉴日本经验，未来行业将通过奶源升级、工艺创新和场景深耕，实现从规模扩张向价值提升的转变。海外：国际巨头的战略启示珠玉在前，明治（日本乳制品龙头）与恒天然（全球领先的乳制品出口商）的发展历程共同彰显研发实力与定制化服务是B 端乳企竞争的关键。明治与恒天然均通过持续的技术创新构建壁垒，明治自建研究机构与外部学术部门合作，自研功能性产品，恒天然则依托新西兰优质奶源、NZMP 模块化原料、Nutiani 功能性配方及本地化研发等实现产品升级。同时，两家企业均以深度绑定客户见长，明治通过“提案式销售”提供定制服务，恒天然以客户共创模式开发场景化解决方案。研发驱动+服务增值的模式推动两家企业向高附加值解决方案商转型，强化领导者地位，为行业提供重要范式。国内：B 端乳制品有望接棒板块景气成长乳制品在B 端市场的应用持续深化，工业客户与餐饮端共同推动行业增长，形成多元化、全场景的渗透格局，我们测算得24 年B 端乳制品行业规模已超400 亿，预计28 年市场规模有望达703 亿元，对应25-28 年CAGR 为14.3%。此轮原奶周期波动之下，国内的乳制品相关企业也作出了更长期的思考，均加快2B 业务与深加工产能布局。推荐国内冷冻烘焙及奶油龙头立高食品（率先推出国产稀奶油产品360pro，占据先发优势）；国内奶酪龙头妙可蓝多（24 年实现对于蒙牛奶酪业务的并表后，不断夯实供应链壁垒，对于B 端客户的服务能力显著提升）；多品类乳企龙头伊利股份（作为综合性乳企龙头，凭借品牌背书，已和部分优质客户实现对接）。风险提示：食品安全问题、行业竞争加剧、原料成本波动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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食品饮料行业：抢占B端乳品新蓝海 国产替代正当时

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食品饮料行业：抢占B端乳品新蓝海国产替代正当时