浙商证券：海外大厂Capex上修明显液冷市场有望加速放量

智通财经2025-08-05

浙商证券发布研报称，25Q2海外大厂Capex上修明显，AI产业“投入-成长-再投入”正循环逻辑持续强化。整机柜产品形态驱动液冷渗透率加速提升，英伟达GPU及各大云厂商自研ASIC芯片液冷需求明显，海外液冷市场有望加速放量。英伟达GPU及云厂商自研ASIC芯片共同驱动液冷市场快速增长，25-27年液冷市场规模大约分别为354/716/1082亿元，27年有望突破千亿市场空间。标的方面，建议关注...

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T-V1芯片将采用液冷散热，T-V2将引入170kW超大功率机架；微软在25Q2业绩会上指出，目前公司所有地区数据中心支持液冷；谷歌于18年第三代TPU起就引入液冷。英伟达GPU及各大云厂商自研ASIC芯片液冷需求明显，海外液冷市场有望加速放量。据测算，英伟达GPU+云厂商自研ASIC共同带动明年液冷市场翻倍增长，27年有望突破千亿市场空间(核心假设及测算过程如下)英伟达B系列芯片：根据零氪1+1，预估25全年Al服务器机架出货量将达到25000-30000套机架，取中位数出货量为28000台机架，单台GB200NVL72配72张B200，即对应B200出货量约200万片。假设26年AI服务器机架(包括GB200NVL72和GB300NVL72)出货量将达到70000台，对应B200/B300出货量约500万片。由于目前英伟达并未公布下一代Rubin系列产品具体参数，因此仍然以B200/B300的出货量对27年市场情况进行预测。根据英伟达24年数据中心业务收入为1152亿美元、AMD预测AI芯片市场规模2028年将达5000亿美元以及此前预测2028年英伟达GPU市场份额约为73%，可得英伟达GPU24-28年复合增速约为33%，假设27年英伟达数据中心收入同比增速为33%，测算得27年英伟达AI芯片出货量约700万片，对应10万台机柜(仍以单台机柜72张芯片进行测算)。根据零氪1+1，单台机架对应液冷价值量约78820美元，折算平均一张B200/B300对应液冷价值量约1095美元。根据以上假设，测算得25-27年英伟达B系列有望带来的液冷需求大约分别22/55/77亿美元，约159/395/553亿人民币。ASIC芯片：根据前文所述，云厂商均积极推进液冷方案，假设ASIC芯片采用类似NVL72架构机架，且均采用液冷散热。预计2025年谷歌TPU出货量预计达150-200万片，亚马逊AWS Trainium2ASIC约140-150万片，谷歌和AWS的AI TPU/ASIC合计出货量已达到英伟达AI GPU出货量的40-60%，随着meta从2026年、微软从2027年开始大规模部署自研ASIC解决方案，ASIC总出货量有望在2026年某个时点超越英伟达GPU。此前推断2024年ASIC市场规模约为122亿美元，结合博通和Marvel预测2027年ASIC芯片市场规模预为600-900亿美金，24-27年ASIC市场规模复合增速为65%，保守假设25年ASIC芯片出货量约300万片，26、27年同比增速均为65%，测算得26、27年ASIC芯片出货量分别约495/817万片。当前谷歌、微软ASIC芯片热设计功耗均低于B200，谷歌最新一代TPU v7p功耗达959W，微软最新ASIC芯片100单卡功耗已达700W，假设ASIC芯片平均单卡功耗取其均值为850W，约是B200单卡功耗1000W的85%左右，因此假设对应单ASIC芯片液冷价值量约为B200/B300的1095美元的85%即约900美元。根据以上假设，测算得25-27年AISC有望带来的液冷需求分别约27/45/74亿美元，约195/321/530亿人民币。综上，英伟达GPU及云厂商自研ASIC芯片共同驱动液冷市场快速增长，25-27年液冷市场规模大约分别为354/716/1082亿元，27年有望突破千亿市场空间。风险提示数据测算偏差；产业发展不及预期；市场竞争加剧超预期；宏观环境及政策变动等风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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浙商证券：海外大厂Capex上修明显 液冷市场有望加速放量

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浙商证券：海外大厂Capex上修明显液冷市场有望加速放量