食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现

国金证券2025-08-03

（以下内容从国金证券《食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现》研报附件原文摘录）白酒：淡季白酒行业基本面边际变化有限，白酒板块情绪伴随顺周期热度有所回落。近几周飞天茅台批价震荡小幅回落，目前原箱批价1900元左右。参考上一轮周期的经验，目前尚处于估值修复的第一阶段，酒企forward PE普遍在20X内、仍处于周期底部区间，估值修复空间仍较充足。临近中报披露期，市场对于酒企...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2556982491?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-08-03 12:06","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2556982491","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现","media":"国金证券","content":"<div>\n<p>（以下内容从国金证券《食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现》研报附件原文摘录）白酒：淡季白酒行业基本面边际变化有限，白酒板块情绪伴随顺周期热度有所回落。近几周飞天茅台批价震荡小幅回落，目前原箱批价1900元左右。参考上一轮周期的经验，目前尚处于估值修复的第一阶段，酒企forward PE普遍在20X内、仍处于周期底部区间，估值修复空间仍较充足。临近中报披露期，市场对于酒企...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250803120621972ffb4b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-03 12:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250803120621972ffb4b&s=b><strong>国金证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（以下内容从国金证券《食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现》研报附件原文摘录）白酒：淡季白酒行业基本面边际变化有限，白酒板块情绪伴随顺周期热度有所回落。近几周飞天茅台批价震荡小幅回落，目前原箱批价1900元左右。参考上一轮周期的经验，目前尚处于估值修复的第一阶段，酒企forward PE普遍在20X内、仍处于周期底部区间，估值修复空间仍较充足。临近中报披露期，市场对于酒企...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250803120621972ffb4b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"600298","symbol_name":"安琪酵母","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250803120621972ffb4b&s=b","article_id":"2556982491","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250803120621972ffb4b&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2556982491","pubTimestamp":1754193972,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"预计Q2软饮料业绩表现分化，东鹏，农夫等具备高景气度大单品的公司将持续兑现高成长。风险提示宏观经济恢复不及预期、区域市场竞争风险、食品安全问题风险。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600298":"安琪酵母","600519":"贵州茅台","600809":"山西汾酒","605499":"东鹏饮料","LU0082770016.USD":"HSBC GIF ASIA EX JAPAN SMALLER CO. \"AD\" INC","BK1604":"节假日概念","LU0274383008.USD":"MANULIFE GF ASIAN SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","01579":"颐海国际","BK1237":"包装食品与肉类","09633":"农夫山泉"},"translate_title":"Food and Beverage Industry Weekly Report: During the performance window period, we are still optimistic about the performance of strong alpha targets","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600298":0.9,"600519":0.9,"600809":0.9,"605499":0.9,"01579":0.9,"09633":0.9},"content_text":"（以下内容从国金证券《食品饮料行业周报：业绩窗口期，仍看好强alpha标的业绩兑现》研报附件原文摘录）白酒：淡季白酒行业基本面边际变化有限，白酒板块情绪伴随顺周期热度有所回落。近几周飞天茅台批价震荡小幅回落，目前原箱批价1900元左右。参考上一轮周期的经验，目前尚处于估值修复的第一阶段，酒企forward PE普遍在20X内、仍处于周期底部区间，估值修复空间仍较充足。临近中报披露期，市场对于酒企二季度表观业绩持续出清已有相对充足的预期，本身市场更倾向于给予动销定价而非表观。短期经营风险释放不改中长期酒企稳增长的态势，一定程度上EPS出清会落地市场对于酒企表观的不确定性担忧、配置情绪有望伴随产业景气修复逐步改善。周内我们发布山西汾酒深度报告，报告主要复盘公司两轮战略层面的变革+产品&区域策略迭代，并分拆公司中期天花板、上看500亿以上。公司的核心优势在于拥有开放&持续迭代的学习型组织，建议持续关注。整体而言，我们预计外部风险对于行业景气度的扰动影响有望环比趋缓、这也是当下预期差所在，近期的渠道反馈也有所体现。建议关注白酒底部配置契机，当下或已是行业最承压的阶段，动销、价盘、政策端对市场风偏扰动等因素均有望持续改善。配置方向建议：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台、五粮液），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒，受益于大众需求强韧性&乡镇消费提质升级趋势的稳健区域龙头。2）顺周期潜在催化的弹性标的（如泛全国化名酒古井贡酒、泸州老窖）。啤酒：行业在低基数背景下已至旺季，啤酒的需求场景偏大众化、目前餐饮等现饮需求仍在稳步修复中，啤酒酒企也在加码非即饮渠道布局、发展软饮等多元化发展。我们认为啤酒行业具备潜在高频销量跟踪催化，旺季估值上浮空间可观，中报业绩预期平稳兑现为主，利润端考虑到成本端红利普遍会有一定弹性。黄酒：行业前期有提价催化，头部品牌的趋同性提价也意味着酒企拉力有望形成合力、竞争格局趋缓。目前行业大单品化趋势逐步成型、高端化培育也已经成为头部品牌的品牌力塑造共识，黄酒头部酒企普遍加大对于营销能力的关注，对黄酒品类进行市场化推广，中期产业趋势变化、以及新品年轻化培育等值得关注。休闲零食：下游新渠道持续扩张，魔芋逐月兑现高成长，行业维持高景气度。本周盐津调整较多，我们认为主要系资金面因素影响，在魔芋品类红利支撑下，公司Q2业绩仍有望达到20%+，全年高增长具备确定性，看好回调机会。此外，我们依旧看好零食量贩两强开店、净利率提升双重逻辑，7月暑期旺季月销环比提升，开店节奏加快，建议关注相关龙头港股IPO催化。软饮料：高温催化下需求逐步改善，叠加健康化、功能性饮料持续渗透，景气度拐点向上。预计Q2软饮料业绩表现分化，东鹏，农夫等具备高景气度大单品的公司将持续兑现高成长。部分传统品类如乳饮，含糖茶，果汁受外卖大战补贴影响短期预计动销承压。中长期仍看好基本盘稳健增长+第二曲线爆发力强的东鹏饮料、农夫山泉，建议关注百润股份。调味品：当前餐饮需求偏弱，居民端结构升级速度放缓，板块景气度底部企稳。从Q2业绩预期来看，多数公司收入端预计承压，利润端或受益于低基数＋产品结构调整好于收入。考虑到行业beta偏弱，推荐海外市占率提升&糖蜜成本下行，业绩弹性有望释放的安琪酵母，建议关注旺季需求改善&估值处于低位的颐海国际。风险提示宏观经济恢复不及预期、区域市场竞争风险、食品安全问题风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2556982491","isCrawlerRequest":true}