旅游酒店及餐饮2025下半年展望：服务连锁正当其时韧则行远

中金公司2025-08-02

投资建议1H25 现制茶饮/餐饮公司密集上市提高板块效应，在消费环境尚待拐点情况下，具备自身增长动能的公司股价表现领先，也因此获得相对较高估值水平，而其余部分与宏观周期相关度高的头部公司估值仍低于历史中枢。展望2H25，我们看好在服务消费享有自身成长和潜在政策促进的背景下，强内功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头的增长机遇。理由服务连锁正当其时：老框架和新问题。在服务消费占比提升、支撑连锁业态发展的...

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万家，届时行业集中度相较瓶装饮料行业和海外现制饮品行业仍具合理性。3）“外卖大战”对咖啡茶饮品牌影响几何？短期而言预计对大部分品牌门店端利润额为非负面或正面影响，中长期存在高基数与供给出清延缓的隐忧。静待餐饮文旅政策扩容带来需求回暖和量价拐点，继续看好强内功综合性龙头和高成长性细分龙头。餐饮中饮品仍看好头部品牌受益行业增长及取代单体和腰尾部连锁品牌市场份额，快餐品类韧性凸显，正餐品牌同店分化，关注具备差异化的高成长性公司；酒店2H25 或仍处于消化供给的行业调整期，看好在下行期持续提升规模和品牌力的龙头；旅游关注旺季表现及各景区新项目投产和存量项目调整进展；免税销售筑底，关注海南封关带动作用、离岛免税销售拐点、市内渠道拓展等边际变化。盈利预测与估值重点推荐瑞幸咖啡、亚朵、古茗、蜜雪集团、百胜中国、达势股份。建议关注顺周期属性相对较强、有望迎来拐点，或有望边际改善、潜在弹性较大的行业及公司，包括华住、首旅酒店、北京人力、科锐国际、同道猎聘、海底捞、中国中免，其他产业链相关公司还包括小菜园（未覆盖）、绿茶集团（未覆盖）、锅圈（未覆盖）。风险政策及效果弱于预期；竞争加剧；企业未能提升管理能力应对变化等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like 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旅游酒店及餐饮2025下半年展望：服务连锁正当其时 韧则行远

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旅游酒店及餐饮2025下半年展望：服务连锁正当其时韧则行远