Blackwell芯片放量对AI产业链有何利好？

每经网2025-07-29

现在的大模型确实变得越来越智能，同时也在往多模态方向发展，应用场景不断拓宽，用户数量迅速增长，相关的训练以及推理需求呈现高速增长。而算力的需求落到硬件上还是要靠AI服务器支撑。摩根士丹利有一个报告，英伟达最新一代AI服务器GB200 NVL72的拆解里面，一个72卡的机架价格达到了300万美金左右，其中GPU的价值量达到了216万美金，约占72%。我们也关注到英伟达的毛利率、净利率均较高。英伟达在...

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NVL72的拆解里面，一个72卡的机架价格达到了300万美金左右，其中GPU的价值量达到了216万美金，约占72%。我们也关注到英伟达的毛利率、净利率均较高。英伟达在短短的两三年里，其收入和利润呈现如此高速的增长，让英伟达快速成为全球市值第一的龙头，说明AI对于它的成长的拉动性很大。（注：提及个股不作为推荐，下同）从英伟达的硬件去看，因为它在GPU领域差不多有90%的份额，所以英伟达自身的技术迭代也就基本意味着AI硬件侧的进化历程。英伟达现在的产品迭代周期基本上是一年一次，目前Blackwell架构的芯片已经开始迅速起量，成为新一代主导产品。2023年人工智能刚刚开始爆火时，当时英伟达的主打产品还是上一代的芯片H100。在3月份大模型爆火之后，英伟达GPU马上就成为了稀缺产品。2023年下半年，GPU相关的收入、利润等也开始迅速成长起来。现在跟当时非常类似，也就是硬件迭代了一代，Blackwell现在已经成为主导产品。5月，GB200 NVL72机架超大规模客户周均部署达到了1000台机柜左右，并且规模有进一步放大的趋势。所谓的超大规模客户是指北美的那几家云厂商，一台有72张卡，每周1000台的话就是7万多张，价格是比较贵的，英伟达通过自身的GPU成长带动了全产业链上的成长。为什么Blackwell芯片的放量对于人工智能的投资机会这么重要？首先，现在跟以前的人工智能发展阶段略有不同，在2023年、2024年海内外厂商都在急于训练自己的大模型，推出一些智能水平更高的模型，所以当时算力需求的增长主要是由训练算力主导的。但是越往后，不管是国内的还是海外的云厂商，他们对于算力的投入都是希望能收回一些成本，在模型训练完之后也希望在用户端能够得到一个比较好的产品体验。现在用户端的应用场景正在迅速打开，推理的算力需求正在快速地增长，推理相比训练而言，它对于精度的敏感性更低，Blackwell比起上一代芯片，它推出了一种更低精度的数据格式FP4，FP4数据精度格式推出来以后，相关的算法可能还需要一段时间适应，但是我们确实看到了应用的潜力，尤其是在对数据精度敏感性不太高的应用场景上。在英伟达法说会和去年GTC大会上就提到过，以FP4的精度去看，Blackwell单位每元可以提供的算力在特定场景下比H100提高大约237%的极限值，Blackwell的发布让算力的性价比正在快速地提升，同时也有利于迅速打开推理的市场空间，推动人工智能快速发展。下半年如何布局AI行情？通信ETF光模块、服务器ODM加铜连接的占比超过60%，光模块占比超40%，业绩确定性比较强，从4月份看到现在的走势是比较好的。创业板人工智能ETF国泰光模块占比也较高，具备高弹性的特点。而信创ETF涵盖了在信创产业链上的很多个股，比如GPU设计、制造等公司，随国产算力发展或有比较好的前景。风险提示：投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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