大摩详解台积电CoWoS产能大战：英伟达锁定六成，云AI芯片市场2026年有望暴增40%-50%

华尔街见闻2025-07-29

人工智能的军备竞赛，正从芯片设计延伸至后端封装，一场围绕台积电CoWoS产能的争夺战已然打响。台积电先进封装技术（CoWoS）已成为各大巨头争夺的AI战略要地。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新发布的研究报告，对2026年台积电及其合作伙伴的CoWoS产能分配进行了详细预测。数据显示，芯片巨头英伟达预计将锁定2026年全球CoWoS总需求的六成，进一步巩固其市场霸主地位。报告预测，全球对...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752125><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>人工智能的军备竞赛，正从芯片设计延伸至后端封装，一场围绕台积电CoWoS产能的争夺战已然打响。\n台积电先进封装技术（CoWoS）已成为各大巨头争夺的AI战略要地。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新发布的研究报告，对2026年台积电及其合作伙伴的CoWoS产能分配进行了详细预测。数据显示，芯片巨头英伟达预计将锁定2026年全球CoWoS总需求的六成，进一步巩固其市场霸主地位。\n报告预测，全球对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752125\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345770993.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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2026","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDS.UK":0.6,"03145":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDA":1,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"TSM":1,"3NVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"人工智能的军备竞赛，正从芯片设计延伸至后端封装，一场围绕台积电CoWoS产能的争夺战已然打响。\n台积电先进封装技术（CoWoS）已成为各大巨头争夺的AI战略要地。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新发布的研究报告，对2026年台积电及其合作伙伴的CoWoS产能分配进行了详细预测。数据显示，芯片巨头英伟达预计将锁定2026年全球CoWoS总需求的六成，进一步巩固其市场霸主地位。\n报告预测，全球对CoWoS的总需求将在2026年达到100万片晶圆，这意味着云AI半导体市场将迎来40%至50%的强劲增长。英伟达预计将消耗其中的59.5万片，紧随其后的是AMD、博通、亚马逊等一众科技巨头，它们同样在积极预订产能，以确保在下一代AI产品中获得关键支持。\n这场争夺战的背后，是云服务提供商（CSPs）不断攀升的资本支出。以谷歌为例，其已将2025年的资本支出预算从750亿美元上调至850亿美元，并预计在2026年进一步加速投资。这为整个AI半导体供应链的持续繁荣奠定了坚实基础。\n英伟达独占鳌头，锁定六成CoWoS产能\n英伟达在CoWoS产能争夺战中占据了绝对领先地位。报告预测，到2026年，英伟达的CoWoS晶圆总需求量将达到59.5万片，占全球总需求的60%。\n这笔庞大的订单中，约51万片将由台积电承接，主要用于其下一代Rubin架构芯片所需的CoWoS-L技术。据此推算，2026年英伟达芯片出货量可达540万颗，其中240万颗将来自Rubin平台。Amkor和日月光（ASE/SPIL）等外包封测厂（OSAT）也将为英伟达分担约8万片的CoWoS产能，主要用于其Vera CPU及汽车芯片等产品。\n在英伟达身后，追赶者的步伐同样迅速。报告显示，AMD预计将获得10.5万片CoWoS晶圆，占据约11%的市场份额。其中，8万片将在台积电生产，用于其MI355和MI400系列AI加速器。服务于云服务巨头的博通成为另一大玩家，其在2026年的CoWoS总需求约为15万片，占据15%的份额。其中，大部分产能（14.5万片）在台积电预订，主要用于为谷歌的TPU、Meta的定制芯片以及OpenAI的项目代工。\n\n\n英伟达（NVIDIA）：预测到2026年，英伟达将预订总计59.5万片CoWoS晶圆，占全球总需求的约60%。其中，51.5万片来自台积电（51万片为CoWoS-L），另外8万片来自安靠（Amkor）等非台积电供应商。这部分产能将主要用于其Rubin、Vera CPU、GB10和汽车芯片。\n博通（Broadcom）： 紧随其后，预计将获得15万片CoWoS晶圆，占总需求的15%。其产能主要服务于大客户的定制芯片（ASIC），包括为谷歌TPU预订的9万片（台积电8.5万片，日月光/硅品5千片）、为Meta预订的5万片，以及为OpenAI预订的1万片。\nAMD： 预计将获得10.5万片CoWoS晶圆，占总需求的11%。其中8万片来自台积电，主要用于MI355和MI400系列芯片；另外2.5万片来自日月光/硅品，用于其采用CoWoS-L技术的Venice CPU。\n其他主要玩家： 亚马逊（AWS）通过其合作伙伴Alchip预订了5万片；Marvell为AWS和微软的定制芯片预订了5.5万片；联发科（MediaTek）为谷歌TPU项目预订了2万片。\n\n\n\nCoWoS产能的激烈争夺，直接源于AI应用的爆炸式增长。报告预测，全球CoWoS总需求将从2024年的37万片，增长至2025年的67万片，并在2026年达到100万片，这意味着2026年云端AI半导体市场将迎来40%-50%的同比增长。\n需求信号强劲，资本开支预示市场高增长\n这场产能竞赛的背后，是AI应用落地带来的真实需求。大摩强调，谷歌等头部云服务商的动态是关键风向标。据报告分析，谷歌已将其2025年的资本支出预算从750亿美元上调至850亿美元，并预计2026年将进一步加速投资。\n更直接的数据是，谷歌云平台每月处理的token数量已从今年5月的480万亿个激增至980万亿个，实现了翻倍增长。基于这些强劲信号，大摩将其对2025年全球顶级云服务商资本支出的同比增长预测从39%上调至43%。\n报告预测，在旺盛需求的驱动下，全球CoWoS总需求量在2025年将增长81%后，2026年将继续增长49%，为整个AI半导体供应链带来持续的增长动力。\n\n产能扩张加速，台积电成最大赢家\n面对客户的强劲需求，作为全球先进封装技术领导者的台积电正全力扩张。\n报告预测，到2026年底，台积电的CoWoS月产能将从2024年的3.2万片大幅提升至9.3万片。产能的供不应求也为台积电带来了丰厚的财务回报。据估计，AI相关收入在2025年将占到台积电总收入的25%，使其成为这轮AI浪潮中确定性最高的受益者之一。\n\n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\n以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。\n更详细的解读，包括实时解读、一线研究等内容，请加入【追风交易台▪年度会员】\n风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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