高盛：若中美达成贸易协议，中国股市或上涨11%

智通财经2025-07-28

7月28日，高盛上调了对中国股票的目标，理由是中美达成贸易协议的前景正在改善，这将消除市场的一个关键不确定因素。高盛将MSCI中国指数的12个月目标点位从85点上调至90点，相较于上周五收盘价意味着11%的上涨空间。高盛策略师Kinger Lau等人在周一发布的一份报告中表示，参考近几个月与美国达成贸易协议的其他国家的交易模式，“一项潜在的中美贸易协议，可能会成为清除中国股市障碍的市场催化事件”。...

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Lau等人在周一发布的一份报告中表示，参考近几个月与美国达成贸易协议的其他国家的交易模式，“一项潜在的中美贸易协议，可能会成为清除中国股市障碍的市场催化事件”。策略师还指出，其他利好因素包括：人民币汇率趋强、私营企业监管风险减弱，以及市场流动性状况的改善。据悉，早在今年5月，高盛策略师就已将MSCI中国指数的目标价上调至美国总统特朗普在4月初宣布全面加征关税前的水平。策略师们当时指出，中美之间关税回撤幅度超出预期。自那时以来，该指数已累计上涨近8%。中国股市已连续三周上涨，原因之一是包括日本在内的多个国家近期成功与美国达成贸易协议，引发市场对美国也将与中国达成类似协议的预期。中美官员于周一举行会谈，试图在8月12日的关税缓冲期截止之前延长双方的贸易休战。而地缘政治关系趋于稳定的迹象也提振了市场情绪。此外，投资者也在关注中国即将召开的政治局会议，该会议将为下半年政策措施定下基调。高盛策略师表示，尽管政策制定者可能不会急于推出强有力的刺激方案，但“一些支持性措施可能会在今年稍晚出台。”尽管如此，由于MSCI中国指数年初以来已上涨超过25%，本轮反弹并非没有风险。高盛建议投资者专注于个股选择，并将对保险和材料板块的评级上调至“增持”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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