大摩：香港住宅市场回暖！建议增持这两只股票

智通财经网2025-07-28

近期，摩根士丹利与美联集团有限公司的专家谢先生(Gordon Tse)和刘先生(Buggle Lau)就香港住宅市场举行了一次电话会议。他们认为，在以下因素的支撑下，香港房价可能已经触底：(1)供应有限;(2)抵押贷款利率下降;(3)内地购房者的贡献增加。相对于零售和写字楼市场，摩根士丹利对住宅市场和开发商保持积极看法。在开发商中，摩根士丹利看好新鸿基地产(00016，增持)和恒基兆业(00012...

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Recommend Overweight on These Two Stocks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"近期，摩根士丹利与美联集团有限公司的专家谢先生(Gordon Tse)和刘先生(Buggle Lau)就香港住宅市场举行了一次电话会议。他们认为，在以下因素的支撑下，香港房价可能已经触底：(1)供应有限;(2)抵押贷款利率下降;(3)内地购房者的贡献增加。相对于零售和写字楼市场，摩根士丹利对住宅市场和开发商保持积极看法。在开发商中，摩根士丹利看好新鸿基地产(00016，增持)和恒基兆业(00012，增持)。摩根士丹利的依据是：(1)高股息收益率;(2) Hibor(香港银行同业拆借利率)和利率下降带来的好处;(3)充足的可售资源。需求方面：2025 年上半年，整体成交量(一手和二手单位)同比增长 3.9%，达到 2.9 万套，这得益于 2025 年 5 月以来 Hibor 下降、开发商的竞争性定价策略以及内地购房者贡献的增加。2025/26 年度财政预算案放宽了印花税(仅 100 港元)，因此 2025 年上半年，售价在 1000 万港元及以下的房产销量同比激增 305%。2025 年，大众市场的表现可能会继续优于奢侈品市场。美联预计 2025 年一手单位销量将达到 1.8 万套(同比增长 6%)。供应改善：(1)潜在供应已见顶(见图 3)，由于土地供应有限，新项目完工量下降，预计市场将开始进入上升周期。(2)在头五个月，已完工库存占一手总销量的 55% 以上(2023/24 年度约为 40%)。因此，开发商正在清理库存。(3)一手单位价格折扣已从 12% 收窄至 9%，表明需求有所改善。(4)2025 年上半年，一手单位去化率改善至 64%，而 2024 年为 57%，2023 年为 50%。房价趋势：2025 年上半年房价可能已经企稳(同比下降 1%)，降幅小于预期。这与摩根士丹利在《洞察报告》中表达的积极观点一致。美联预计 2025 年房价将上涨 3%(摩根士丹利对下半年的估计为上涨 2%)。催化剂可能出现在供应降至 9 万套以下时。租金趋势：保持积极。(1)更多来自内地的人才和学生来香港工作和攻读高等教育。(2)在过去 2-3 年，由于抵押贷款利率上升和房价下跌，本地人的积压需求受到抑制，他们此前更倾向于租房，但这种情况可能会改变。美联预计 2025 年租金同比上涨 6%(2025 年上半年为 1.2%)。图表 1：房价在 2021 年 9 月达到峰值后下跌 28%，目前正趋于稳定(RVD)图表 2：租金上涨支撑房价(RVD)图表 3：私人住宅潜在供应可能已见顶 ——2025 年第二季度环比下降 4000 套图表 4：与一线城市相比，香港的租金收益率具有吸引力图表 5：内地购房者在一手市场的贡献占比上升(按价值计算)图表 6：抵押贷款利率下降反映出 Hibor 下降\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2554708927","isCrawlerRequest":true}