银行2025Q2末银行股机构筹码追踪：主动筹码增幅有限

浙商证券2025-07-21

25Q2 银行股机构持仓水平提升，主要依靠被动拉动，主动公募持仓增幅有限，筹码结构仍然健康。低估值或基本面优异的股份行、城商行受青睐。整体水平：银行机构持仓上升整体水平：25Q2 末银行股公募的持仓水平上升。25Q2 末偏股型公募+北上合计持有银行股数较25Q1 末提升8.5%，占自由流通股的占比较25Q1 末提升0.7pc。其中，主要增持力量来自被动资金，主动型公募+北上的持仓增幅有限，筹码结构...

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末，主动型公募、指数型公募、北上资金持股数环比+6.3%、+39.0%、+2.3%，占自由流通股比例环比分别+0.1pc、+0.6pc、基本持平。子行业中：中小银行持仓增加。25Q2 末，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行的机构持股数占自由流通股比例，分别较25Q1 末+0.1、+1.2、+1.0、+0.6pc。个股来看：低估值股份行、基本面优质城农商行资金增持力度加大。机构持仓增幅最大的银行为民生、中信、平安、重庆、渝农，25Q2 末持股数占自由流通股比例，分别较25Q1 末提升3.2、2.9、2.7、2.6、2.6pc。北上资金：持仓水平保持平稳25Q2 北上资金整体持仓保持平稳。25Q2 末北上资金持股数环比上升2.3%，持股占自由流通股比例环比持平。子行业来看，农商行的北上资金流出幅度较大，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行北上资金持股数占自由流通股比例，环比分别+0.1、持平、+0.2、-0.3pc。个股来看，北上资金偏好高股息银行。25Q2 末平安、成都、中行、光大、建行，北上资金持股数占自由流通股比例，环比分别上升2.1、2.0、1.4、1.1、1.1pc。被动公募：被动持仓继续上升受红利ETF、沪深300 ETF 等指数扩容、权重调整影响，25Q2 指数型基金继续增仓银行股，25Q2 末持股数环比提升39.0%，持股占自由流通股比例环比提升0.6pc。个股来看，相关指数权重股如中信、常熟、苏州等，指数产品的增持幅度较大。主动公募：主动持仓增幅有限25Q2 主动型公募银行重仓持股数环比提升6.3%，持股占自由流通股比例环比提升0.1pc。主动型公募的银行重仓市值占比环比回升，25Q2 末，主动型公募基金重仓银行股比例3.6%，环比提升0.6pc，主动公募的持仓增幅整体低于预期。个股来看，低估值或基本面优异的股份行、城商行，主动型公募重仓比例上升幅度较大。25Q2 末，杭州、江苏、民生、招行、中信的公募基金重仓比例环比分别上行0.15、0.11、0.08、0.07、0.05pc。银行观点：继续看好银行板块低利率大趋势，资产荒银行牛。策略思维看银行、微观思维选个股。建议用牛市思维看待和参与本轮银行股重大级别行情，当下不是行情的下半场，而是长周期的开始，趋势的力量是本轮行情的底层逻辑，“时间的玫瑰”是本轮行情的选股思路。2024 年我们重点推荐国有行，2025 年A 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