东方证券-妙可蓝多-600882-深度报告：原制奶酪或成为妙可蓝多新增长极-250721

市场资讯2025-07-22

（来源：研报虎）核心观点　　原制奶酪有望实现国产替代、行业渗透率提升，妙可蓝多为核心受益者。市场可能尚未重视原制奶酪对妙可蓝多的潜在业绩贡献，主要因1、对国产替代逻辑存疑，不清楚背后核心驱动力；2、居民对原制奶酪认知度低、口味接受度低，原制奶酪行业规模较小，即使国产替代也难对业绩有明显贡献。我们认为国牌具备多方位优势，国产替代将逐步推进；原制奶酪行业当前规模虽小，但餐饮端/零售端渗透率提升空间较大...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2553252789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-07-22 21:32","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2553252789","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"东方证券-妙可蓝多-600882-深度报告：原制奶酪或成为妙可蓝多新增长极-250721","media":"市场资讯","content":"<div>\n<p>（来源：研报虎）核心观点　　原制奶酪有望实现国产替代、行业渗透率提升，妙可蓝多为核心受益者。市场可能尚未重视原制奶酪对妙可蓝多的潜在业绩贡献，主要因1、对国产替代逻辑存疑，不清楚背后核心驱动力；2、居民对原制奶酪认知度低、口味接受度低，原制奶酪行业规模较小，即使国产替代也难对业绩有明显贡献。我们认为国牌具备多方位优势，国产替代将逐步推进；原制奶酪行业当前规模虽小，但餐饮端/零售端渗透率提升空间较大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-07-22/doc-infhkfer4519777.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>东方证券-妙可蓝多-600882-深度报告：原制奶酪或成为妙可蓝多新增长极-250721</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n东方证券-妙可蓝多-600882-深度报告：原制奶酪或成为妙可蓝多新增长极-250721\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-22 21:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-07-22/doc-infhkfer4519777.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（来源：研报虎）核心观点　　原制奶酪有望实现国产替代、行业渗透率提升，妙可蓝多为核心受益者。市场可能尚未重视原制奶酪对妙可蓝多的潜在业绩贡献，主要因1、对国产替代逻辑存疑，不清楚背后核心驱动力；2、居民对原制奶酪认知度低、口味接受度低，原制奶酪行业规模较小，即使国产替代也难对业绩有明显贡献。我们认为国牌具备多方位优势，国产替代将逐步推进；原制奶酪行业当前规模虽小，但餐饮端/零售端渗透率提升空间较大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-07-22/doc-infhkfer4519777.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK0028","symbol_name":"国家队","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-07-22/doc-infhkfer4519777.shtml","article_id":"2553252789","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2553252789","pubTimestamp":1753191120,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"核心观点　　原制奶酪有望实现国产替代、行业渗透率提升，妙可蓝多为核心受益者。目前原制奶酪国产率预计仅不到20%。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600882":"妙可蓝多","600958":"东方证券","BK0028":"国家队","BK0276":"资本市场","03958":"东方证券","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0226":"食品制造","BK0188":"融资融券","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0077":"质押式回购","BK1564":"中资券商股"},"translate_title":"Orient Securities-Miaokelando-600882-In-depth report: Original cheese may become the new growth pole of Miaokelando-250721","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600882":1,"600958":1,"03958":1},"content_text":"（来源：研报虎）核心观点　　原制奶酪有望实现国产替代、行业渗透率提升，妙可蓝多为核心受益者。市场可能尚未重视原制奶酪对妙可蓝多的潜在业绩贡献，主要因1、对国产替代逻辑存疑，不清楚背后核心驱动力；2、居民对原制奶酪认知度低、口味接受度低，原制奶酪行业规模较小，即使国产替代也难对业绩有明显贡献。我们认为国牌具备多方位优势，国产替代将逐步推进；原制奶酪行业当前规模虽小，但餐饮端/零售端渗透率提升空间较大，行业空间不容忽视。国产替代逻辑：部分头部国产品牌已掌握主流原制奶酪(马苏/马斯卡彭/布里等)规模化生产技术。对比国外品牌，国牌优势在于奶源便宜且充足、物流运输成本低、产品更新鲜、定制化研发速度快。目前原制奶酪国产率预计仅不到20%。行业渗透率提升逻辑：我国原制奶酪行业规模仅80亿左右，人均消费量远低于日/美，行业增长空间大。原制奶酪渗透率提升底层逻辑在于消费者的健康化追求；类比奶茶鲜奶化，预计未来几年原制奶酪在餐饮/茶饮行业渗透率将明显提升；预计营养摄入需求将初步推动原制奶酪渗透率提升，此后随着口味本土化改良及普及率提升，消费者对原制奶酪口感接受度也将提升。国产奶酪品牌近两年参与进原制奶酪赛道，有助于提升消费者的原制奶酪认知度。　　妙可蓝多技术储备、奶源、客户渠道、定制化研发实力构成强壁垒，决定了公司能成为国产替代龙头。技术：妙可蓝多是国内为数不多掌握规模化生产原制奶酪技术的公司之一。奶源：生产原制奶酪需要大量优质原奶，拥有自有优质牧场的企业具备决定性优势，包括妙可、伊利等。渠道：与蒙牛奶酪合并实现餐饮端客户资源共享；同时公司积极开拓客户，与众多西餐/茶咖/烘焙品牌建立合作关系，有助于原制奶酪产品开展销售。研发创新：公司高度重视研发，研发费用率以及研发人员数量占比处于较高水平；已与必胜客/KFC等专业客户合作，体现定制化研发实力强大。盈利预测与投资建议　　我们提高原制奶酪对公司收入贡献的预期，上调公司25-27年收入预期；考虑股权激励费用，上调管理费用率。预测公司2025-2027年每股收益为0.46、0.63、0.83元(原预测25-27年为0.47、0.64、0.84元)。我们延续FCFF估值方法，计算公司权益价值为169亿元，对应目标价32.95元，维持买入评级。风险提示：　　行业竞争加剧、消费力恢复不及预期、原制奶酪市场接受度提升不及预期。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2553252789","isCrawlerRequest":true}