李开复：中美大模型竞争关键在于开源与闭源之争

格隆汇2025-07-17

近日，2025格隆汇·中期策略峰会在深圳南山香格里拉酒店举行。零一万物CEO、创新工场董事长李开复博士带来了《生成式AI：从ChatBot到Agent 的跃进与机会》的主题演讲。李开复在演讲中指出，未来5到10年最重要的技术领域就是生成式AI驱动的AI 2.0，如不能及时接纳AI未来会被淘汰。相比于PC时代、移动互联网时代，AI 2.0时代全球GDP会迎来更大幅度的增长。中美之争不是OpenAI和...

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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/2505931><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，2025格隆汇·中期策略峰会在深圳南山香格里拉酒店举行。零一万物CEO、创新工场董事长李开复博士带来了《生成式AI：从ChatBot到Agent 的跃进与机会》的主题演讲。李开复在演讲中指出，未来5到10年最重要的技术领域就是生成式AI驱动的AI 2.0，如不能及时接纳AI未来会被淘汰。相比于PC时代、移动互联网时代，AI 2.0时代全球GDP会迎来更大幅度的增长。中美之争不是OpenAI和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/2505931\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0225283273.USD","symbol_name":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) 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2.0，如不能及时接纳AI未来会被淘汰。相比于PC时代、移动互联网时代，AI 2.0时代全球GDP会迎来更大幅度的增长。中美之争不是OpenAI和DeepSeek谁强，而是开源与闭源之争。英伟达依然是一个比较稳妥的投资标的，但需寻找合适的买入时机。美国科技巨头股票“七选一”，可能会选择微软。01预训练Scaling Law失效推理Scaling Law成为模型智能增长新范式生成式AI驱动的AI 2.0是有史以来最伟大的技术革命和平台革命，未来5到10年，AI 2.0将快速走出实验室，赋能千行百业，创造巨大的经济价值。过去两年大模型赛道的一个重要趋势是，大模型的智能在以每年30个点的速度快速提升，同时，AI的推理成本也在以每年降低10倍的速度快速下降，应用层发展的成本担忧也在逐步解决。这些重要的变化为AI-First应用的爆发，穿透千行百业奠定了坚实的基础。现阶段，预训练的Scaling Law基本已经结束了。其中一个原因在于，超大规模的GPU集群越来越不好管理。举例来说，从一张GPU到10张GPU，可能会得到9.5倍算力提升；但是从1万张GPU到10万张GPU，算力可能只有2倍的提升。另一个原因则是可用于模型训练的数据也存在瓶颈，缺乏高质量数据，GPU烧起来也是事倍功半的结果。新的机会在推理阶段的Scaling Law。在推理阶段Scaling Law的加持下，大模型的智力不但没有停止成长，而且还会成长得更快。DeepSeek令人佩服的其中一点就在于，它破解并开源了慢思考推理模型，并且得到了媲美顶级闭源模型的优秀性能。02中国在开源模型路径上开始赶超美国李开复在策略会中指出，美国的前沿技术研究是领先中国的，但是中国吸收消化技术快速迭代的能力很强，中国工程能力也处于世界第一梯队，更可贵的是，中国的创业者很有拼劲，目前看，世界大模型竞赛中只有中美两国，没有第三方。美国还有一个新的优势，就是无论是企业（2B）还是消费者（2C），其付费能力都很强，这个中国还赶不上。然而，中国也有新的优势，就是开源。中美之间的竞争关键并不是OpenAI与DeepSeek孰强孰弱，也不是Deepseek追不追得上OpenAI，而是开源与闭源的路线之争。中国两大模型都选择了开源路线，而美国最好的模型仍在闭源。如果按照这种趋势，美国可能会输。开源是中国团队做出的正确决定。阿里巴巴Qwen和DeepSeek的顶级开源模型让中国优秀大模型能进一步普惠全球，未来一定会在全球大模型创新生态中带来巨大的红利。03英伟达仍是一个比较稳妥的投资标的关于投资标的，李开复表示依然看好英伟达。无论是模型预训练领域、无人驾驶等等，这些领域都离不开英伟达的芯片和技术支持，所以英伟达的价值还是很大的。未来一段时间，英伟达股价也许不会涨几十倍，但仍有上升空间，是一个比较稳妥的投资。但是，英伟达在未来可能会面临各种利好和利空因素，例如，最新芯片是否能进入中国市场的潜在风险等，这可能会对公司的股价产生相当大的影响。投资者要综合考虑，理性投资。在美国七巨头中，李开复坦言自己更看好微软。因为微软敢于大胆投资和创新，有发展前景，同时对商业模式有着深刻的理解，能够清楚地认识到如何实现盈利，这种兼具多种优势的公司很少。微软对于大模型的盈利模式就有着清晰的认知。但是微软的体量很大，未来实现几十或上百倍的增长可能性较低。尽管如此，如果美国七巨头里面只选一家投资，李开复可能会选择微软。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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