3个话题：台积电Q2“超预期”、ASML多空争论、浅聊光模块和PCB

橙子不糊涂2025-07-17

3个话题，一个一个聊。1，台积电Q3指引轩超预期，但Q4低于市场预期…（1）我们先看TMTBreakout的信息：（2）最夸张的是：我们维持未来5年AI加速器40%+年复合增长率…还能有比这还乐观的预测么？（3）然后台积电画风一转：我们很保守，Q4可能下滑，因为考虑了很多风险…翻译一下：我们Q4跟可能超预期。（4）虽然只言片语，但台积电透露了很多信息。“主权AI”+“超大规模AI”，这里其实明确...

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ASML订单和毛利率强劲，但2026年充满不确定性（1）先看信息：（2）我偏向于多方，因为ASML这两年一惯就是先把事儿讲的很惨，然后持续超预期的预期管理模式。台积电已经稳住预期，就剩存储厂商了。至少明年HBM的预期完全可以支撑ASML不会那么糟糕。今天有投行提醒了HBM在2026年的竞争风险，那需要先扩张。目前考虑HBM的竞争风险太过于保守，中性的理解就是明年继续紧平衡。另外，别忽视了我们这里进口光刻机超预期的可能，其实光刻机进口这件事这两年一直在超预期…3，浅聊光模块+PCB聊4点：（1）今天胜宏科技发了定增进展公告，通过交易所审核意味着快了，这无疑是个好事情。这个和其他一些公司顶着亏损和100X PE激烈的博弈不同，大家可以自行推演一下；（2）新易盛今天异动了，龙虎榜比较有意思。昨天在星球里提到了：后面达链会继续演绎精彩。英伟达持续向上，对达链估值空间打开非常重要，难得的超级产业趋势。（3）关于正交背板PCB的机会大概是M9 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