百度集团-SW2Q25前瞻：AI搜索改造快速推进中

华泰证券2025-07-18

我们预计百度持续推进的搜索产品AI改造或将在2025年内持续对百度核心的广告收入增长带来一定压力。伴随AI转型实践逐步迈入深水区，用户侧数据亦逐步出现边际改善趋势(MAU同比增速温和提升)，建议持续关注改造进展及用户反馈。与此同时，近期公司自动驾驶业务在海外市场的积极入局或为其打开可观的中长期成长空间，建议持续关注公司与海外平台业务合作进展及商业化变现节奏。维持“买入”评级。百度核心2Q25前瞻：...

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MAU在2025年4/5/6月分别同比增长3.7/4.3/4.4%，用户侧正展现健康的边际改善趋势。我们预计智能云总收入同增25.5%至64亿元，我们预计Deepseek年初至今带来的AI技术平权有望使得百度智能云继续受益于国内稳步增长的AI训练及推理需求以及私有化一体机的部署需求，从而兑现较快的智能云收入增长。我们预计百度核心2Q25非GAAP经营利润为41亿元，同比下降41%，对应非GAAP经营利润率15.8%，同比有所下降(2Q24：26.2%)，反映出AI改造对于利润率的短期压力以及较高利润率的广告收入占比下降的结构性影响。盈利预测与估值我们下调2025/2026/2027年百度非GAAP净利润预测17.2/16.1/14.8%至209/240/263亿元，主因较高利润率的广告收入增速恢复仍需时间。基于SOTP模型的美股目标价调整至91.5美元(前值：102.2美元)，港股目标价调整至89.9港元(前值：99.5港元)，新目标价对应10.8/9.4/8.7倍2025/2026/2027E非GAAP 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