焦点板块及个股 | 医药行业；科技行业；高盛；软银集团

中信证券财富管...2025-07-17

医药行业 - 创新药板块流动性及基本面持续改善展望2025年下半年，我们认为创新药行情有望延续，核心逻辑在于流动性或将进一步扩张、板块基本面持续优化，而中报业绩将成为催化剂。同时，第11轮集采如预期落实诸多优化举措，包括国家医保药品目录退出机制、医院自主品牌选择权提升、仿制药品牌间价差更加合理。头部药企业绩即将进入加速阶段，建议投资者下半年“逢低布局、持有为主”。我们认为头部创新药企中期业绩大概率...

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创新药板块流动性及基本面持续改善展望2025年下半年，我们认为创新药行情有望延续，核心逻辑在于流动性或将进一步扩张、板块基本面持续优化，而中报业绩将成为催化剂。同时，第11轮集采如预期落实诸多优化举措，包括国家医保药品目录退出机制、医院自主品牌选择权提升、仿制药品牌间价差更加合理。头部药企业绩即将进入加速阶段，建议投资者下半年“逢低布局、持有为主”。我们认为头部创新药企中期业绩大概率超预期，将成为板块二次上行的触发点。推荐石药集团 (1093 HK)、翰森制药 (3692 HK) 及中国生物制药 (1177 HK) 等龙头。科技行业 - 海外 AI 应用已经从 token 消耗和收入等维度逐步验证实际商业价值今年以来海外 AI 应用呈现加速态势。从需求层面看，token 消耗维持高速增长，大模型调用与收入水平快速增长；从供给层面看，一方面基于 LLM 模型的 AI 搜索、AI Coding、Agent 等通用型应用率先爆发，另一方面多模态模型能力持续迭代， 图片生成、视频生成应用具备爆款潜力，此外营销、客服、招聘、教育、医疗、法律等垂类应用层出不穷。我们持续看好受益海外算力需求的供应链机会，并建议关注国内具备 AI 基础设施、模型能力与应用场景的云和互联网厂商，以及 Coding、Agent、图片/视频生成等应用落地带来的投资机会。推荐腾讯 (700 HK)、阿里巴巴 (9988 HK) 等。高盛 (GS US; 708.82美元) 股票交易收入支持季绩优于预期高盛2025年二季度净利润同比增长22%至37.2亿美元，相当于每股10.91美元，高于市场预期的每股9.53美元；收入升15%至145.8亿美元，高于预期。期内，高盛大部分收入来自股票交易，共产生43亿美元收入，同比增36%，比预期高6.5亿美元。唯一逊预期的是资产及财管部门，收入降3%至37.8亿美元，较预期少1亿美元，主因私募基金及债务投资收入减。业绩公布后，公司股价周三靠稳涨0.90%。软银集团 (9984 JP; 10,450日元; 目标价: 12,348日元) 估值折价处于极端水平公司的股价目前处于48%的折价水平—尽管这一折扣有所缩小，但仍处于极端水平。尽管我们认为，由于人工智能的持续崛起和对OpenAI的投资，今年投资者对公司的兴趣有所增加，但大多数投资者仍然对该股持谨慎态度，并认为高折价是不可避免的。我们认为这种看法过于谨慎。虽然很难想象大规模回购会在未来几年成为主要因素，但对于OpenAI的好消息以及IPO的预期兴奋将被视为积极因素。资料来源：相关公司、中信证券","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2552172185","isCrawlerRequest":true}