百度集团-SW：广告持续承压利润下滑明显

中金公司2025-07-17

预测2Q百度核心收入同比降低3.8%我们预计2Q百度集团收入同比降低3.8%至327 亿元；其中，百度核心收入同比降低3.8%至257 亿元。我们预期集团2Q25 非通用准则净利润为36亿元，其中百度核心非通用准则净利润为39 亿元。关注要点AI改造持续深化，预计2Q广告收入跌幅扩大。根据近期我们和公司的沟通，公司预计2Q AI生成内容占比持续提升，且这一比例在3Q或将进一步提升，由于公司要求...

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Live并表影响，我们预计2Q核心广告收入同比降幅扩大至16%；此外3Q广告收入环比下滑，同比下滑幅度进一步扩大。考虑到外部流量平台的竞争以及新兴大模型的冲击，公司传统搜索产品的AI改造势在必行；虽然改造后公司表示改造后时长、搜次等用户端指标有所回暖，但AI商业化进展整体慢于预期。我们认为百度核心广告是否能回暖仍有待继续跟踪用户使用习惯的变化，以及公司擅长的健康、旅游、教育、法律等细分赛道的商业化变现进度。AI云增速健康，利润率较为稳健。公司预计行业对GPU云、大模型API调用需求强劲，我们预计订阅制公有云2-3Q收入有望维持高于20%同比增速，我们预计2Q25 百度云收入同比增长25%。公司预计云稳定贡献利润。萝卜快跑与Uber达成战略合作。7 月15 日，萝卜快跑宣布与出行服务平台Uber建立战略合作关系，萝卜快跑计划将数千辆无人驾驶汽车，接入Uber全球出行网络，年底前双方将率先在亚洲和中东地区部署萝卜快跑RT6，未来将逐步扩展至全球更多市场。百度核心经营利润率下滑明显。考虑到广告收入大幅承压，我们预计2Q百度核心非通用准则经营利润40 亿元，对应非通用准则经营利润率15.5%，显著低于去年同期。盈利预测与估值考虑到百度核心广告低于预期，我们下调25 和26 年收入1%和2%至1313 和1322 亿元，下调25 和26 年非通用准则净利润16%和8%至182和218 亿元。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑部分板块估值提振，维持美股和港股目标价99.1 美元和96 港元，基于SOTP估值法对应美股和港股均为14倍/11 倍的25 年/26 年非通用准则市盈率，较当前美股和港股分别有6%和8%的上行空间（当前美股对应13 倍/11 倍2025/2026 年非通用准则市盈率，港股对应12 倍/10 倍25/26 年非通用准则市盈率。风险业务改造不及预期，降本增效不及预期，新业务发展不及预期，监管风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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百度集团-SW：广告持续承压 利润下滑明显

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百度集团-SW：广告持续承压利润下滑明显