AI界最大对赌协议：OpenAI若宣布实现AGI，微软巨额投资恐一夜清零

美股研究社2025-07-15

来源 | 美股投资网7月12日消息，据外媒报道，微软与OpenAI之间的一项保密合作条款规定：一旦OpenAI自行认定实现了AGI，微软将立即失去对其新模型的访问权限，双方长达数年的合作协议也将自动终止。这一条款如今浮出水面，暴露了两家公司在对AGI前景判断上的根本分歧——微软认为AGI仍遥不可及，而OpenAI坚信AGI已近在眼前。该条款明确规定：当OpenAI董事会宣布其模型已具备“在大多数...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715192628a44c49e5&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源 | 美股投资网7月12日消息，据外媒报道，微软与OpenAI之间的一项保密合作条款规定：一旦OpenAI自行认定实现了AGI，微软将立即失去对其新模型的访问权限，双方长达数年的合作协议也将自动终止。这一条款如今浮出水面，暴露了两家公司在对AGI前景判断上的根本分歧——微软认为AGI仍遥不可及，而OpenAI坚信AGI已近在眼前。该条款明确规定：当OpenAI董事会宣布其模型已具备“在大多数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715192628a44c49e5&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SGXZ31699556.SGD","symbol_name":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) 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美股投资网7月12日消息，据外媒报道，微软与OpenAI之间的一项保密合作条款规定：一旦OpenAI自行认定实现了AGI，微软将立即失去对其新模型的访问权限，双方长达数年的合作协议也将自动终止。这一条款如今浮出水面，暴露了两家公司在对AGI前景判断上的根本分歧——微软认为AGI仍遥不可及，而OpenAI坚信AGI已近在眼前。该条款明确规定：当OpenAI董事会宣布其模型已具备“在大多数经济价值工作上超越人类”的AGI能力，且模型展示出创造超过1000亿美元潜在利润时，微软将立即失去对新一代模型的访问权限，所有合作协议自动终止，且不得独立开发AGI系列产品，直至合同期结束或重签协议。过去几年，微软一直认为AGI不可能在短期内实现，尤其是2030年前更是一纸空谈。比尔·纳德拉曾公开表示，“如果这真是人类的最后发明，那一切就得重来”，带着玩笑意味，却也暴露态度——微软并没把这份条款当回事。然而，随着OpenAI模型能力的急剧跃升，加上CEO奥特曼屡次强调AGI已近在眼前，微软开始意识到风险可能从理论变为现实。为什么这次谈判变得格外关键？如果OpenAI宣布实现AGI：微软将被剥夺访问所有先进模型的权利，捆绑多年的商业布局一夜泡汤。即便微软试图提起诉讼，对抗董事会认定的合法性，至少会陷入漫长的法律争端。AGI定义模糊、裁量空间巨大：由于合同中未明确标准，仅凭“在多数经济工作超越人类”、“潜在收益1000亿”即激活条款，OpenAI董事会几乎可以主观认定——微软若有异议，仅能通过诉讼挑战。微软被禁止自研AGI：这一限制让其在应对突发情况时几无主动权，商业级模型设计受限，任何替代路径需绕过条款重谈或等待其失效。谈判焦点：微软的“解套”需求美股大数据认为，随着OpenAI内部转型为“公共利益公司”（public benefit corporation），它希望在利润上不设上限、持股结构更灵活，并引入更多资本支持研发，但此结构转变需微软点头。微软正借此提供筹码：若条款无法废除，就不批准这次重构。据《WIRED》报道，微软要求彻底删除AGI触发条款，或确保即使OpenAI宣布实现AGI，也要保留其访问权；而OpenAI暗中准备通过“AGI五级进程”论文等内部文档，为触发时机设定更高门槛，以保留自我裁量。条款最终去留方向：若微软成功删条，这意味着AGI真正爆发前，其无需忧虑被断供；若条款保留，对其长期AI战略埋下定时炸弹。重构审批进度与细节：OpenAI转型路径如何，股权比例设置如何，是否将微软纳入治理核心？都是投资者评估OpenAI上市及估值的关键。市场和技术验证进程：AGI的首次判定若发生，市场反应将非常剧烈。即便初判断被判无效，也可能引发核心定价模型重置，MSFT股价承压。投资结语：AGI 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