通信行业周报：博通管理层会议指引积极 GROK4正式发布建议关注海外算力链景气度机遇

华创证券有限责...2025-07-13

行情回顾。本周通信行业（申万）上涨了2.13%，跑赢沪深300 指数涨幅（0.82%）1.31 个百分点，跑输创业板指数涨幅（2.36%）0.23 个百分点。今年以来通信行业（申万）上涨了9.54%，跑赢沪深300 指数涨幅（2.03%）7.51 个百分点，跑赢创业板指数涨幅（3.06%）6.48 个百分点。本周通信行业涨幅（2.13%）在所有一级行业中排序第11，全年涨幅排序第10。本周通信行业...

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为33.06。本周通信板块涨幅前五分别为三川智慧（+27.91%）、国源科技（+27.72%）、博创科技（+19.84%）、仕佳光子（+14.85%）、中新赛克（+12.46%）；本周通信板块跌幅前五分别为有方科技（-18.52%）、瑞斯康达（-13.48%）、旋极信息（-7.31%）、合众思壮（-5.09%）、润泽科技（-4.10%）。博通近期在策略会议中释放出清晰信号：AI 推理需求已进入快速放量阶段，且仍处于上升通道初期，超出当前产能的需求增长，可能推动公司利润结构与产业产能的系统性重估。1）AI 推理需求显著超预期：当前推理需求已超出现有产能，而这一增长尚未计入博通此前对2027 年市场规模的预测（对三大AI客户预计600–900 亿美元的市场空间），预示未来存在盈利上修的可能。2）博通正与四个AI 客户合作开发第一代定制AI XPU 芯片，并预计今年将完成两个客户的流片。3）博通明确指出AI 推理负载对高带宽、低延迟网络提出更高要求。在推理需求增长的同时，公司在网络产品方面的营收占比持续提升。当前AI 系统中，计算与网络设备的支出比例大约为3:1。在新技术方面，公司也在评估共封装光学（CPO）方案在数据中心的落地路径，但指出当前光学器件高达5%–8%的故障率可能制约其规模化部署。4）博通非AI 业务（包括存储、企业网络、通用DC 等）在经历多个季度的周期性承压后，出现“U 型”复苏迹象，订单回暖可能推动明年EPS 的积极修正。VMware 平台（VCF）正逐步完成企业客户的架构迁移，预计至2026–2027 年年化收入可达200 亿美元，之后将回归正常的中高个位数增长水平。7 月10 日，xAI 发布Grok 4 模型，正式进入多模态、强化学习、多智能体协作并行推进的新阶段。Grok 4 在多项通用基准测试中刷新历史成绩：在Humanity's Last Exam 测试中获得45%的成绩，远超Gemini 2.5 Pro 的21%；ARC AGI v2 推理测试中达15.8%，为第二名Claude 4Opus 的两倍。Grok 4 支持多模态输入，整合语言、视觉与代码处理能力，具备实时接入X 平台数据的能力，提升对强时效性信息的检索与生成能力。语音交互方面，新增的Eve语音模型实现了自然语言生成与情绪表达，并具备秒级响应速度。xAI 还展示了Grok 4 在科学推理（如范畴论与有机化学）、语言学（如希伯来语音韵分析）与商业预测（如MLB 胜率分析）中的推理过程及解答表现，具备在真实复杂任务中独立完成工作链条的能力。目前海外算力产业链已形成相对完整的闭环，自算力硬件投入到应用赋能变现已相对成熟，博通会议相关指引超市场预期，进一步印证AI 领域投资持续加码的相关逻辑，建议关注具备核心竞争壁垒、深度参与全球AI 算力基建供应链、且在下一代高速光互联技术迭代中占据领先地位的光模块龙头企业：中际旭创、天孚通信、新易盛。同时建议关注在特定技术路线或细分领域具有优势、有望受益于行业景气扩散及国产化进程深化的标的：源杰科技、仕佳光子、德科立、太辰光。通信行业持续跟踪公司：运营商：重点推荐中国移动、中国电信、中国联通；光模块光器件光芯片：重点推荐新易盛、天孚通信、中际旭创，建议关注源杰科技、仕佳光子；军工/卫星通信：重点推荐海格通信、上海瀚讯、七一二，建议关注臻镭科技、震有科技；设备商：推荐共进股份，建议关注紫光股份、中兴通讯、锐捷网络；光纤光缆：建议关注长飞光纤、亨通光电、中天科技；AIDC：推荐润泽科技，建议关注奥飞数据、光环新网、科华数据；物联网模组：重点推荐广和通，建议关注美格智能；控制器：重点推荐拓邦股份、和而泰；算力芯片：重点推荐盛科通信；射频器件：建议关注灿勤科技。风险提示：资本开支不及预期，AI 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通信行业周报：博通管理层会议指引积极 GROK4正式发布 建议关注海外算力链景气度机遇

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通信行业周报：博通管理层会议指引积极 GROK4正式发布建议关注海外算力链景气度机遇