两大知名机构下调对阿里预期，蒋凡主导的外卖大战能否成“救星”？

山东财经报道2025-07-14

文｜导报财经组外卖大战正酣之际，花旗银行、摩根士丹利两大机构下调阿里巴巴预期消息引发市场关注。01被花旗、摩根士丹利下调预期7月11日，花旗银行下调了对阿里巴巴的EBITA（息税折旧摊销前利润）预测，并开启为期30天的短期负面观察。花旗发表研究报告指出，即时零售及快商务已成为电商平台争夺核心市占率的关键战场，由于战略性合并饿了么与飞猪至中国电商业务，并加大补贴力度以推动交叉销售协同效应，预计集团...

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Can the food delivery war led by Jiang Fan become a \"savior\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1,"09988":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6},"content_text":"文｜导报财经组外卖大战正酣之际，花旗银行、摩根士丹利两大机构下调阿里巴巴预期消息引发市场关注。01被花旗、摩根士丹利下调预期7月11日，花旗银行下调了对阿里巴巴的EBITA（息税折旧摊销前利润）预测，并开启为期30天的短期负面观察。花旗发表研究报告指出，即时零售及快商务已成为电商平台争夺核心市占率的关键战场，由于战略性合并饿了么与飞猪至中国电商业务，并加大补贴力度以推动交叉销售协同效应，预计集团整体及淘天集团（TTG）EBITA将分别按年下跌15%及18%。摩根士丹利则在7月10日发布的研究报告中，将阿里巴巴美股目标价从180美元下调至150美元，其预计阿里巴巴在截至6月的第一财季已经在外卖和闪购业务上投入约100亿元，这将导致其短期盈利承压。摩根士丹利进一步预计，阿里在第二财季的相关投入可能翻倍至200亿元，将拖累其淘天集团与本地生活集团的EBITA同比下跌超过40%。此前，淘宝7月2日曾宣布闪购将在12个月内直补消费者及商家共500亿元。02蒋凡回归后高调杀入外卖大战据了解，本轮外卖大战的导火索是今年2月京东高调杀入外卖市场，4月份京东又打出“零佣金+五险一金+百亿补贴”组合拳，与美团正面“硬刚”。在2月份至4月份的大战初期，阿里巴巴旗下的饿了么非常低调，并没有加入战局。但事件进入5月份，阿里巴巴内部风云突变，先是原定于5月6日上线的淘宝闪购在5月2日提前上线。公开报道称，淘宝闪购原名“小时达”，是淘宝天猫旗下的即时零售业务，于2025年4月30日升级并更名，整合了饿了么等资源，模式为“电商低价+即时配送”。之后的6月23日，饿了么、飞猪被合并到阿里中国电商事业群，虽然两大板块继续保持公司化管理模式，但工作统一向电商事业群CEO蒋凡汇报，业务决策执行与阿里电商事业群集中目标、统一作战，背后是阿里巴巴“从电商平台走向大消费平台的战略升级”。两次变动背后的关键人物无疑是阿里巴巴最年轻的合伙人蒋凡。公开信息显示，蒋凡1985年出生，毕业于复旦大学计算机系，2013年进入阿里巴巴负责手机淘宝App开发工作，2017年就升任淘宝总裁，年仅32岁，当时一度被视为马云接班人。2020年，蒋凡因与超模张大奕绯闻被取消阿里合伙人资格，并在2021年末调离淘宝转向阿里海外业务。2024年5月，蒋凡低调回归，先是出任阿里国际数字商业集团首席执行官，2024年11月，阿里巴巴将淘宝天猫集团、国际数字商业集团、1688、闲鱼等合并组建电商事业群，蒋凡出任事业群CEO。今年6月26日，阿里巴巴发布2025年财报，显示蒋凡不但重拾阿里巴巴合伙人身份，还进入与马云、蔡崇信、吴泳铭、邵晓锋共同组成的阿里巴巴最高决策五人组。03淘宝线上线下商户或出现零和博弈外界看来，蒋凡集权的背后是阿里巴巴正在押注一场本地生活领域的生死大战，在线上业务被拼多多严重挤压的情况下，阿里巴巴必须在即时配送领域打破美团和京东的围堵，否则不但饿了么市场份额不保，本地生活的其他流量也将被竞争对手瓜分，届时线上线下两面受敌的压力将无比巨大。有分析认为，阿里巴巴再次重用蒋凡以及将飞猪和饿了么并入电商事业群，向消费平台转型的目标已非常明确，最终目的大概率是要把淘宝App打造为本地生活领域的超级App，但与美团、京东等平台相比，阿里巴巴要在即时配送领域搭建护城河的难度无疑更大。“通过外卖补贴为淘宝引流，短期肯定会提升App活跃度并带来部分新用户，但一旦补贴减少或退出，阿里巴巴在线下很难拿出与美团、京东抗衡的差异化服务，比如美团的大众点评，京东的供应链服务，而即时配送领域用户忠诚度与服务体验直接挂钩。”业内人士分析指出。上述人士还认为，当前淘宝闪购的做法还有可能影响到淘宝网店商家利益，“当你想买一桶洗发水时，是选择在网店购买等待邮寄，还是就近下单即时配送，这是目前淘宝App用户需要面临的选择，对线上和线下商家来说，这是一场零和博弈，而现在淘宝选择了补贴线下。”对此蒋凡有不同看法，在近期的财报电话会议中，他表示淘宝闪购的增长中能看到即时零售业务的高频场景对淘宝用户活跃度的提升。蒋凡认为，从长期看，“远场”“近场”电商结合可能通过把淘宝用户转变为即时零售的新用户，重新升级阿里电商的商业模式。短期内，阿里电商会将投资重点放在即时零售带来的新用户上，“会非常积极地投入这个业务。”版权 | 山东财经报道","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2551924122","isCrawlerRequest":true}