秦洪看盘｜低波红利主线触底回稳，强化A股下档支撑

澎湃新闻2025-07-16

周三A股市场出现了高位震荡的态势。其中，近期相对强势的AI产业链主线在盘中冲高受阻，市场人气有所散淡，创业板指更是受阻回落，上证综指在盘中也一度有小幅跳水的动作。但随着以银行股为代表的低波红利主线龙头相继探底回升，股指也随之回稳。看来，短线A股再度进入到上有压力、下有支撑力的拉锯格局。利好渐趋兑现近期A股资金动向出现了较有意思的转向。一方面是已有部分长线资金减持去年以来强势主线的信息，比如说日前...

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A-shares","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159547":1,"159982":1,"399300":1,"600926":0.9,"601398":0.9,"601939":0.9},"content_text":"周三A股市场出现了高位震荡的态势。其中，近期相对强势的AI产业链主线在盘中冲高受阻，市场人气有所散淡，创业板指更是受阻回落，上证综指在盘中也一度有小幅跳水的动作。但随着以银行股为代表的低波红利主线龙头相继探底回升，股指也随之回稳。看来，短线A股再度进入到上有压力、下有支撑力的拉锯格局。利好渐趋兑现近期A股资金动向出现了较有意思的转向。一方面是已有部分长线资金减持去年以来强势主线的信息，比如说日前中国人寿减持杭州银行（600926），从而使得银行股未来走势的分歧有所加重。另一方面则是在AI产业链各领域龙头上市公司超预期的半年报业绩刺激下，AI主线在近期反复活跃，成为动量资金主动积极出击的核心方向。只是由于AI产业链主线的龙头股主要分布在创业板、科创板，因此，此类品种一旦上涨，往往两三个交易日的涨幅就会逾30%、甚至40%，比如说新易盛（300502）在周一的收盘价为130.9元，在周三盘中的最高价就达到179.28元，意味着仅仅两个交易日的长阳K线就达到了36.95%的涨幅。如此涨幅在一定程度上就反映了超预期的2025年半年报业绩，从而使得入驻其中的资金有了套现离场的打算。更何况，近期关于AI芯片等诸多利好消息也持续落地，意味着该类个股后续走势的催化剂效应也在边际递减，如此就进一步强化了动量资金减持的意愿。所以，在周三盘中，AI龙头股大多出现了冲高受阻回落的走势。由于此类个股是近期动量资金主动出击的核心方向，故也代表着近期动量资金的动向。因此，此类个股的冲高受阻回落也意味着动量资金在降低短线交易频率。如此不仅仅使得短线指数的动能减弱，而且成交金额也随之萎缩，在周三，沪深两市的成交金额再度回到1.5万亿元以下，只有1.44万亿元，较上个交易日萎缩了1700亿元。下档支撑强劲不过，就在动量资金收缩的同时，长线资金跟踪的以银行股为代表的低波红利主线有所回稳。比如说建设银行（601939）、工商银行（601398）等品种均出现了较长下影线的阳K线，甚至连前文提及的受中国人寿减持信息影响的杭州银行也出现了低开高走的阳K线。如此的走势就说明了虽然有部分长线资金或因为自身的战略调整，或因为获利丰厚而有所减持低波红利主线，但并不是长线资金的主流。毕竟目前银行股的总市值在13万亿元左右，区区几十亿的减持并不代表长线资金的主流方向。更何况，从当前的经济环境、利率环境等角度来说，虽然银行股的股息率较2025年初有了一定程度的降低，但是，相比较当前1%左右一年期存款利率、1.34%左右的一年期国债收益率等数据来说，当前大市值银行股仍然拥有4%股息率、城商行的股息率在5%，仍然具有较强的比较优势。而且，一旦此类个股股价向下调整，就意味着股息率会再度升高。所以，在当前环境下，一旦以银行股为代表的低波红利主线回落，就会引来新的长线资金的配置买盘涌入，从而带来强劲的支撑能量。由于低波红利主线是A股的权重股，所以，此类个股下档有买盘力量支撑，就意味着A股的下档买盘力量也不容小视。综上所述，短线A股虽然热点有所降温、交易情绪有所降低，但是，下档支撑力度并未有所减弱。因此，短线A股可能会呈现出上有一定压力，但下有强劲支撑的格局。故在操作中，仍不宜过于谨慎，继续持股。（执业证书：A1210612020001）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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