华尔街大行业绩季本周开启：投行业务或连续14个季度表现低迷，交易收入再成救命稻草？

华尔街见闻2025-07-14

来源：华尔街见闻市场预计，美国五大行投行业务二季度收入下滑近10%至75亿美元，占华尔街业务比重将连续第14个季度低于25%，创下自2014年以来最长低迷纪录。交易收入同比增长近10%，达到310亿美元，是投行收入的四倍多。摩根大通和花旗将于当地时间7月15日公布业绩，美银、高盛和摩根士丹利将于次日发布。Q2业绩季本周开启，华尔街大行将迎来更严峻的业绩考验。市场预计，美国五大行——摩根大通、...

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again?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"C":0.9,"BAC":0.9},"content_text":"来源：华尔街见闻市场预计，美国五大行投行业务二季度收入下滑近10%至75亿美元，占华尔街业务比重将连续第14个季度低于25%，创下自2014年以来最长低迷纪录。交易收入同比增长近10%，达到310亿美元，是投行收入的四倍多。摩根大通和花旗将于当地时间7月15日公布业绩，美银、高盛和摩根士丹利将于次日发布。Q2业绩季本周开启，华尔街大行将迎来更严峻的业绩考验。市场预计，美国五大行——摩根大通 、美国银行 、花旗集团 、高盛 和摩根士丹利 ——投行业务二季度收入下滑近10%至75亿美元，占华尔街业务比重将连续第14个季度低于25%，创下自2014年以来最长低迷纪录。交易业务或再次成为救星，预计第二季度交易收入同比增长近10%，达到310亿美元，是投行收入的四倍多。摩根大通和花旗将于当地时间7月15日公布业绩，美银、高盛和摩根士丹利将于次日发布。加上富国银行，美国六大行整体二季度净收入预计将比去年同期下降约13%，其中摩根大通降幅最大，分析师预计较去年同期下降30%。这一表现凸显了自2021年疫情时代泡沫破裂以来，并购交易和股权资本市场的持续低迷。同时也突出了交易业务在经历2010年代的低迷期后表现强劲，当时低利率和波动性不足抑制了收入增长。交易业务受益于市场波动，投行业务复苏前景未明银行通过促进和融资交易获利，在活动水平高且价格波动时受益。Oppenheimer & Co研究分析师Chris Kotowski表示：这是正常环境，而2010年代的低波动环境才是异常部分。过去三年中，金融市场应对了利率上升、乌克兰和中东冲突，以及特朗普重返白宫后的保护主义政策。这些趋势抑制了企业领导者和投资公司进行交易的能力。尽管银行家们对潜在项目储备保持乐观，但Kotowski对投行业务短期前景谨慎：我认为2025年投行业务基本已定。秋季可能出现强劲的股票发行季度，这会有所帮助。并购更多取决于下半年已宣布的交易。HSBC银行业分析师Saul Martinez指出，季度前半段因显而易见的原因表现艰难，但对前景显然更加乐观。然而，投资者希望的政治和经济稳定可能会缓解推高银行交易收入的市场波动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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