食品饮料行业大众品Q2业绩前瞻及中期策略报告：新消费重构投资范式传统消费循势待时

浙商证券2025-07-15

一、食饮新消费研究范式定义：新消费的“新”藏在产品和渠道逻辑变化里。食饮新消费研究范式，跳出经济周期/地产周期的需求研究框架，通过创新性提供优质供给（如极致性价比、情绪价值、技术创新）发掘新需求，或依托新渠道创造新增量，其消费趋势可概括为理性品质消费、情绪价值悦己消费、技术迭代创新三大方向。同时关注现象级的事件或产品，比如外卖大战和魔芋、麦角硫因等产品的爆火。多维度比较：食饮新消费与传统消费研究...

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trend","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80291":0.6,"600073":0.9,"600600":0.9,"600882":0.9,"603345":0.9,"605338":0.9,"02517":0.9,"09633":0.9,"02648":0.9,"09985":0.9,"01364":0.9,"00291":0.9,"02555":0.9,"CRHKY":0.6,"TSGTF":0.9,"02097":0.9},"content_text":"一、食饮新消费研究范式定义：新消费的“新”藏在产品和渠道逻辑变化里。食饮新消费研究范式，跳出经济周期/地产周期的需求研究框架，通过创新性提供优质供给（如极致性价比、情绪价值、技术创新）发掘新需求，或依托新渠道创造新增量，其消费趋势可概括为理性品质消费、情绪价值悦己消费、技术迭代创新三大方向。同时关注现象级的事件或产品，比如外卖大战和魔芋、麦角硫因等产品的爆火。多维度比较：食饮新消费与传统消费研究范式的不同。为系统解构食饮传统消费和新消费的投资范式差异，我们将从增长逻辑、定价/估值体系、风险特征、资金属性及投资策略五大维度展开对比分析。产品端：健康精准化升级，以情绪价值链接消费者。我们认为在新消费背景下，食品饮料产品端的趋势也在逐步发生变化，产品逐步向健康精准化的同时兼具口感、重视情绪价值触达引起共鸣这两大特点发力。与此同时，消费者接受种草的过程也逐步多元化，例如向小红书、抖音等社交媒体转型。渠道端：供给过剩下渠道变革大年，品牌方迎来发展机遇。进入经济增速换挡及逐步转向需求导向的时代，我们将迎来零售变革的大机遇。零售行业正经历深度变革，从传统商超模式向仓储会员店、折扣店、即时零售等新形态转型，核心驱动力是消费者对“多快好省”需求的升级。零售变革的变化体现为业态创新和调改实践。2025 年，京东、美团、阿里三大巨头在“即时零售”领域的“三国杀”战略各异。对品牌方的影响集中在供应链和商品创新。二、子板块分析和重点公司Q2/H1 业绩前瞻依托食饮新消费和传统消费的投资范式，具体到子板块来看：我们认为啤酒、乳制品、调味品中的传统龙头企业更多的是参照传统消费和景气度研究框架，自上而下考虑周期或行业调整状态下的企业拐点；而新消费为主导的休闲零食、茶饮、预调酒、软饮料和保健品，则需自下而上挖掘新产品新渠道中的爆发性变化，从而通过提供优质供给创造“新”需求。休闲零食：25Q2 表现分化，重视具备品类红利和新渠道拓展的标的。预计25Q2 三只松鼠/洽洽食品/劲仔食品/盐津铺子/万辰集团/有友食品/甘源食品收入增速为21%/10%/10%/16%/114%/53%/下滑，归母净利润增速为亏损/-10%/-87%/24%/3960%/78%/-72%；25H1 三只松鼠/洽洽食品/劲仔食品/盐津铺子/卫龙美味/万辰集团/有友食品/甘源食品收入增速为7%/-3%/10%/21%/21%/118%/46%/下滑，25H1 三只松鼠/洽洽食品/劲仔食品/盐津铺子/卫龙美味/万辰集团/有友食品/甘源食品归母净利润增速为不可比/-73%/0%/18%/6%/42200%/43%/-56%。软饮料：细分赛道景气度分化，继续重视板块机会。预计25Q2 东鹏饮料/香飘飘/欢乐家收入增速为35%/0.2%/-0.2%，归母净利润增速为36%/亏损/亏损；25H1 东鹏饮料/香飘飘/欢乐家收入增速为37%/-12%/-13%；25H1 东鹏饮料的归母净利润增速为41%。乳制品：预计25Q2 板块收入平淡，静待盈利弹性在原奶触底后释放。预计25Q2 伊利股份/新乳业/妙可蓝多/李子园收入增速为2%/6%/10%/2%，归母净利润增速为46%/19%/50%+（还原激励费用后100+%）/10%；25H1 伊利股份/新乳业/妙可蓝多/李子园/中国飞鹤收入增速为2%/3%/34%/-1%/-9%，归母净利润增速为-4%/28%/75+%（还原激励费用后100+%）/14%/-42%（综合净利润）。茶饮：外卖大战催化高景气，当前格局“一超多强”。重点推荐以下两类投资机会：一超：平价价格带的超级王者蜜雪集团。蜜雪当前位于平价（10 元以下）价格带，在极强的供应链能力+品牌势能近期超预期提升的双重加持下，有望通过产品力的进一步提升来拓宽能力边界、加深护城河，建议在25H2 等待合适时点做长期布局。多强：中价价格带强者林立，各有特色，亦为受外卖大战拉动效果最突出的价格带。中价价格带除了有已上市的众多品牌之外，近期亦涌入“茉莉奶白”“去茶山”等特色品牌。建议重点在此价格带中α突出的标的，建议关注茶百道：（1）单店：受益于低基数下+外卖大战，Q2、Q3 单店有望趋势向上，（2）开店：H1 店铺调整结束，H2 净开店拐点线上。同时建议关注古茗：拓展咖啡业务拓宽经营边界+拓店空间广阔。保健品：看好B 端格局趋于集中，C 端需重视高成长大单品对应的景气投资机会。预计25Q2 仙乐健康收入增速为0%，归母净利润增速为-4%；25H1 仙乐健康收入增速为0%，归母净利润增速为1%。预调酒：行业整体需求稳健，关注25 年产品焕新及威士忌业务。预计25Q2 百润股份收入增速为9%，归母净利润增速为11%；25H1 百润股份收入增速为1%，归母净利润增速为9%。啤酒：“禁酒令”对啤酒影响有限，结构升级&成本改善趋势延续，关注25 年低基数下旺季销量表现。预计25Q2 青啤/重啤收入增速为3%/-1%，归母净利润增速为8%/-6%；25H1 青啤/重啤收入增速为3%/0%，归母净利润增速为8%/-1%。燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒已发业绩预告，燕京啤酒预计25Q2 归母净利润同比增长37%-48%，25H1 归母净利润同比增长40%-50%；珠江啤酒预计25Q2 归母净利润同比增长10%-23%，25H1 归母净利润同比增长15%-25%。调味品：龙头业绩稳健度和确定性更优，复调景气较高。预计25Q2 海天味业/中炬高新/千禾味业/安琪酵母/天味食品/涪陵榨菜/宝立食品收入增速为7%/-5%/-2%/10%/15%/2%/10%，归母净利润增速为8%/32%/-4%/11%/15%/10%/18%；25H1 海天味业/中炬高新/千禾味业/安琪酵母/天味食品/涪陵榨菜/宝立食品收入增速为7%/-17%/-5%/9%/-8%/-2%/9%，归母净利润增速为12%/-6%/1%/13%/-37%/4%/6%。速冻：需求疲软竞争加大，重视后续餐饮链需求修复预期。预计25Q2 安井食品/千味央厨/巴比食品收入增速为5%/0%/12%，归母净利润增速为2%/-10%/18%（扣非）；25H1 安井食品/千味央厨/巴比食品收入增速为0%/1%/9%，归母净利润增速为-4%/-26%/12%（扣非）。卤制品：单店仍在修复，提升门店经营质量仍是工作重点。预计绝味食品25Q2收入增速为-11%，归母净利润增速为-27%；25H1 收入增速为-11%，归母净利润增速为-27%。烘焙：行业升级下品牌焕发新活力。预计25Q2 立高食品/海融科技收入增速为15%/10%，归母净利润增速为31%/-11%；25H1 立高食品/海融科技收入增速为15%/2%，归母净利润增速为22%/-47%。其他：百龙创园预计25Q2 收入增速为21%，归母净利润增速为36%；25H1 收入增速为22%，归母净利润增速为43%。三、投资建议新消费重构食品饮料投资新范式，新消费行情短暂回调之后有望延续。传统消费中持续重视龙头标的在高股息下的景气变化和边际趋势。近期新消费板块出现阶段性调整，主要受资金轮动及部分高估值标的接近压力及溢价阶段性修正的影响，但中长期来看，趋势仍在，机会明确，仍可持续布局。1）重视趋势型标的的中长期机会：符合新消费趋势，即理性品质消费、情绪价值悦己消费、技术迭代创新等标的，虽然部分标的短期数据尚未兑现，但商业模式契合新消费方向，后续仍是重要的布局方向。2）重视当下红利正在持续的标的，虽短期结构性调整，但估值性价比显现，可积极布局。此前我们一直强调食品饮料的新消费应重视品类红利和渠道红利带来的机会，短期因为情绪波动和估值回归理性后短期股价有所回调，但红利期仍在延续，应把握估值低位，积极布局。推荐标的：卫龙美味、伊利股份、万辰集团、新乳业、盐津铺子、妙可蓝多、劲仔食品、东鹏饮料、古茗、蜜雪集团、青岛啤酒（A+H）、安井食品、巴比食品、立高食品、仙乐健康，关注茶百道、金达威、锅圈、有友食品、光明肉业、燕京啤酒、农夫山泉、华润啤酒。风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨、终端需求疲软或需求修复不及预期、行业数据存在主观分类和筛选，存在实际情况与数据结论不符的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"preview","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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食品饮料行业大众品Q2业绩前瞻及中期策略报告：新消费重构投资范式 传统消费循势待时

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食品饮料行业大众品Q2业绩前瞻及中期策略报告：新消费重构投资范式传统消费循势待时