航空货运与物流Ⅲ：物流行业迎来无人技术的“DEEPSEEK时刻”

长江证券2025-07-15

引言：物流行业的“DeepSeek 时刻”到来随着算法效率大幅提升与新技术迭代，物流行业在支线、干线、末端及管理各环节实现显著突破，物流行业迎来“DeepSeek 时刻”。1）支线环节：低速无人物流车迈入规模化商用元年；2）干线环节：智能卡车开启前装量产；3）末端环节：中通、顺丰等企业推进末端运营线路重构；4）管理环节：头部企业开发垂直领域大模型。物流新技术往往在快递行业率先落地，或有三点原因：1...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2551161614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-07-15 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2551161614","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"航空货运与物流Ⅲ：物流行业迎来无人技术的“DEEPSEEK时刻”","media":"长江证券","content":"<div>\n<p>引言：物流行业的“DeepSeek 时刻”到来随着算法效率大幅提升与新技术迭代，物流行业在支线、干线、末端及管理各环节实现显著突破，物流行业迎来“DeepSeek 时刻”。1）支线环节：低速无人物流车迈入规模化商用元年；2）干线环节：智能卡车开启前装量产；3）末端环节：中通、顺丰等企业推进末端运营线路重构；4）管理环节：头部企业开发垂直领域大模型。物流新技术往往在快递行业率先落地，或有三点原因：1...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715191715a6ab120a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>航空货运与物流Ⅲ：物流行业迎来无人技术的“DEEPSEEK时刻”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n航空货运与物流Ⅲ：物流行业迎来无人技术的“DEEPSEEK时刻”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-15 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715191715a6ab120a&s=b><strong>长江证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>引言：物流行业的“DeepSeek 时刻”到来随着算法效率大幅提升与新技术迭代，物流行业在支线、干线、末端及管理各环节实现显著突破，物流行业迎来“DeepSeek 时刻”。1）支线环节：低速无人物流车迈入规模化商用元年；2）干线环节：智能卡车开启前装量产；3）末端环节：中通、顺丰等企业推进末端运营线路重构；4）管理环节：头部企业开发垂直领域大模型。物流新技术往往在快递行业率先落地，或有三点原因：1...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715191715a6ab120a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"600794","symbol_name":"保税科技","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715191715a6ab120a&s=b","article_id":"2551161614","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715191715a6ab120a&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551161614","pubTimestamp":1752508800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"物流新技术往往在快递行业率先落地，或有三点原因：1）中国快递行业规模超万亿元，提供新技术商业化充足的空间。末端与管理提效，推动加盟快递全链路成本改善，中通率先开启直链模式、圆通布局物流大模型提质增效。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":["earning"],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600794":"保税科技","603056":"德邦股份","ZTO":"中通快递","06936":"顺丰控股","09956":"安能物流","02057":"中通快递-W"},"translate_title":"Air Cargo and Logistics III: The logistics industry ushered in the \"DEEPSEEK moment\" of unmanned technology","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600794":0.9,"603056":0.9,"02057":0.9,"09956":0.9,"ZTO":0.9,"06936":0.9},"content_text":"引言：物流行业的“DeepSeek 时刻”到来随着算法效率大幅提升与新技术迭代，物流行业在支线、干线、末端及管理各环节实现显著突破，物流行业迎来“DeepSeek 时刻”。1）支线环节：低速无人物流车迈入规模化商用元年；2）干线环节：智能卡车开启前装量产；3）末端环节：中通、顺丰等企业推进末端运营线路重构；4）管理环节：头部企业开发垂直领域大模型。物流新技术往往在快递行业率先落地，或有三点原因：1）中国快递行业规模超万亿元，提供新技术商业化充足的空间。2）电商快递竞争激烈，追求极致成本管控。3）快递行业人力成本占比高，人力成本降本潜力显著。支线环节：无人物流车的增长元年国内头部快递公司开启无人物流车采购潮，订单规模呈现倍数级增长，其背后的核心驱动因素：1）核心零部件成本下降、供应链整合降本及算法效率提升，无人物流车成本大幅下降，单月运营费用可低至2000 元左右，显著低于人工成本（司机单月收入均值约6500 元）。2）路权政策持续松绑，推动无人车商业化加速落地。经测算可替代的存量商用车总量或超千万辆，2025年头部无人物流车公司总交付量规模或达万辆级别，渗透率不足可替代市场的1%。干线环节：智能辅助驾驶开启规模化量产当前智能辅助驾驶卡车也迎来里程碑式的突破，头部快递公司率先规模化部署。商用车智能辅助驾驶解决传统干线运输中的安全和成本痛点：1）安全性能提升；2）提升节油效果；3）降低司机身心疲劳度，节省人力成本。参考中国中重卡2024 年销量，可替代车辆销量为103 万辆，假设智能卡车前装系统渗透率分别为10%/30%/50%，对应市场空间分别为155/464/773亿元。截至2024 年底，头部企业智能卡车累计交付量不足万辆，对应渗透率仍不足1%。末端环节：模式变革推动全链路降本随着快递公司末端驿站揽派量持续提升，可通过将目的地转运中心与末端驿站直链，显著降低综合成本。中通率先推动直链模式变革，快件派送自转运中心出发可不经过加盟网点直达末端驿站，若直链比例达到40%，有望节省末端成本0.12 元。顺丰推行的“中转场直接分拣+容器集装并直接发运至末端小哥收派区域”的营运模式变革，减轻了网点操作负担，大幅提升人效。管理降本：数智化决策促进管理降本伴随大数据、人工智能等新兴技术快速发展，头部企业通过自研行业大模型，实现管理降本与流程再造。顺丰重视对内提升物流网络数智化水平，开发“丰知”大模型驱动智能决策。圆通开发“智多星”垂直大模型，加速人工智能技术与数字化系统融合，提升全链路运营效率。投资建议：技术浪潮奔涌，物流成本重构当前物流各环节新技术加速突破，技术跃升有望重构物流企业成本效率。支线无人化，优先推荐直营物流公司顺丰控股等。干线智能化，看好干线成本敏感型企业安能物流、德邦股份。末端与管理提效，推动加盟快递全链路成本改善，中通率先开启直链模式、圆通布局物流大模型提质增效。此外，建议关注商用车无人驾驶零部件以及运营商环节。风险提示1、路权政策松绑不及预期；2、快递行业价格竞争超预期；3、发生超预期的安全事件风险；4、社会舆论风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2551161614","isCrawlerRequest":true}