东方证券：维持腾讯控股买入评级，目标价599.06港元

东方证券2025-07-15

25Q2我们预期公司营业收入达1819亿(yoy+12.9%，qoq+1.0%)，前序预测值为1821亿，基本维持不变，进行结构性调整，主要系上修云业务预测，下修支付板块预测。25Q2归母净利润(Non-IFRS)为659亿(yoy+15%)，维持前值。25Q2我们预取增值服务收入达915亿(yoy+16%，qoq-0.7%)，前序预测值为914亿，基本维持不变，主要调整流水预测结构。我们预期...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2551159434?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-07-15 09:13","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2551159434","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"东方证券：维持腾讯控股买入评级，目标价599.06港元","media":"东方证券","content":"<div>\n<p>25Q2我们预期公司营业收入达1819亿(yoy+12.9%，qoq+1.0%)，前序预测值为1821亿，基本维持不变，进行结构性调整，主要系上修云业务预测，下修支付板块预测。25Q2归母净利润(Non-IFRS)为659亿(yoy+15%)，维持前值。25Q2我们预取增值服务收入达915亿(yoy+16%，qoq-0.7%)，前序预测值为914亿，基本维持不变，主要调整流水预测结构。我们预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715094057a44b087a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>东方证券：维持腾讯控股买入评级，目标价599.06港元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n东方证券：维持腾讯控股买入评级，目标价599.06港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-15 09:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715094057a44b087a&s=b><strong>东方证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>25Q2我们预期公司营业收入达1819亿(yoy+12.9%，qoq+1.0%)，前序预测值为1821亿，基本维持不变，进行结构性调整，主要系上修云业务预测，下修支付板块预测。25Q2归母净利润(Non-IFRS)为659亿(yoy+15%)，维持前值。25Q2我们预取增值服务收入达915亿(yoy+16%，qoq-0.7%)，前序预测值为914亿，基本维持不变，主要调整流水预测结构。我们预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715094057a44b087a&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"00700","symbol_name":"腾讯控股","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715094057a44b087a&s=b","article_id":"2551159434","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250715094057a44b087a&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551159434","pubTimestamp":1752542039,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"25Q2我们预期公司营业收入达1819亿，前序预测值为1821亿，基本维持不变，进行结构性调整，主要系上修云业务预测，下修支付板块预测。我们预期25Q2游戏收入577.5亿，前序预测值为576.6亿。支付业务我们进行下修，预期维持一季度情况-支付笔数增长，但笔单价下行趋势，整体无增长。采用SOTP估值，给予对应目标价599.06港币，维持“买入”评级。风险提示政策风险、游戏收入不达预期风险、广告行业竞争风险","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":["rate"],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","00700":"腾讯控股","03958":"东方证券","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"translate_title":"Orient Securities: Maintain a buy rating on Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK $599.06","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":0.9,"00700":1,"03958":1,"TCEHY":0.9},"content_text":"25Q2我们预期公司营业收入达1819亿(yoy+12.9%，qoq+1.0%)，前序预测值为1821亿，基本维持不变，进行结构性调整，主要系上修云业务预测，下修支付板块预测。25Q2归母净利润(Non-IFRS)为659亿(yoy+15%)，维持前值。25Q2我们预取增值服务收入达915亿(yoy+16%，qoq-0.7%)，前序预测值为914亿，基本维持不变，主要调整流水预测结构。我们预期25Q2游戏收入577.5亿(yoy+19%，qoq-3%)，前序预测值为576.6亿。去年Q2为《王者荣耀》与《和平精英》开启趋势转暖的时点，基数较高，但今年Q2我们预期头部常青树产品在高基数背景下仍能维持同比增长。以及《DNF》虽然去年同期刚上线高基数，但常青游戏《三角洲行动》环比趋势超预期增长，贡献不错增量。我们预期公司新头部大作周期将在Q4《无畏契约：能源行动》上线后开启。25Q2我们预期营销服务收入达352亿(yoy+17.7%，qoq+10.4%)，前序预测值为350亿。基本维持不变。公司营销收入增速跑赢市场，主要由于1)供给端：视频号流量、库存持续增长释放；2)AI驱动转化率提升；3)需求侧：内循环贡献占比提升，广告主对视频号、小程序及微信搜一搜广告库存的强劲需求，微信电商等交易生态系统的持续优化有望驱动内循环需求侧增长。未来AI Agent能力释放有望继续复刻此前小程序对流量和广告内循环预算的驱动逻辑。25Q2我们预期金融科技及企业服务收入达541亿(yoy+7.3%，qoq-1.5%)，前序预测值为545亿。我们下修支付收入预测，上修云业务收入预测。支付业务我们进行下修，预期维持一季度情况-支付笔数增长，但笔单价下行趋势，整体无增长。云业务我们进行上修，增速预期因新机房投入使用比Q1微增。我们预期新游戏《无畏契约》M上线将驱动新周期开启，预计25-27年IFRS归母净利润为2188/2482/2749亿元(原值为2185/2484/2778亿元，因调整支付等业务收入预测，我们调整盈利预测)，25-27年non-IFRS归母净利润为2657/2985/3306亿元。采用SOTP估值，给予对应目标价599.06港币(545.47人民币HKD/RMB=0.91)，维持“买入”评级。风险提示政策风险、游戏收入不达预期风险、广告行业竞争风险","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2551159434","isCrawlerRequest":true}