安踏：管理层对2H25乐观的前景有望对股价带来正向的催化

浦银国际研究2025-07-16

浦银国际研究尽管安踏品牌上半年的流水表现不及公司年初的指引，但基于公司对线下渠道的不断升级与改造以及对运营架构的持续优化，管理层对下半年的流水表现依然表现出谨慎乐观，并维持全年流水目标不变。我们认为这将利好安踏股价短期的表现。●2Q25流水符合预期，Fila表现优于安踏品牌：安踏品牌2Q25流水同比增长低单位数，未达到公司运营目标。受短期渠道升级改造的影响，线下流水同比增长低单位数。线上流水同比...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250716151336a44e0e3c&s=b><strong>浦银国际研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浦银国际研究尽管安踏品牌上半年的流水表现不及公司年初的指引，但基于公司对线下渠道的不断升级与改造以及对运营架构的持续优化，管理层对下半年的流水表现依然表现出谨慎乐观，并维持全年流水目标不变。我们认为这将利好安踏股价短期的表现。●2Q25流水符合预期，Fila表现优于安踏品牌：安踏品牌2Q25流水同比增长低单位数，未达到公司运营目标。受短期渠道升级改造的影响，线下流水同比增长低单位数。线上流水同比...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250716151336a44e0e3c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2488822045.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ CHINA HEALTHY LIVING \"AT\" (USD) 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prices","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82020":0.6,"ANPDY":0.6,"02020":1},"content_text":"浦银国际研究尽管安踏品牌上半年的流水表现不及公司年初的指引，但基于公司对线下渠道的不断升级与改造以及对运营架构的持续优化，管理层对下半年的流水表现依然表现出谨慎乐观，并维持全年流水目标不变。我们认为这将利好安踏股价短期的表现。●2Q25流水符合预期，Fila表现优于安踏品牌：安踏品牌2Q25流水同比增长低单位数，未达到公司运营目标。受短期渠道升级改造的影响，线下流水同比增长低单位数。线上流水同比增长低单位数，主要是公司面对较大的竞争压力，采取了较为克制的折扣所致。安踏品牌线上折扣同比加深低单位数，线下折扣同比小幅改善，整体库销比维持在5个月左右。Fila 2Q25流水同比增长中单位数的上限水平，符合公司运营目标。其中，Fila经典大货流水同比增长高单位数，高于儿童与潮牌，而电商同比增长低双位数。Fila线上与线下的折扣均同比加深低单位数。迪桑特、可隆与Maia Active依然维持较高的流水增速，分别增长40%-45%，70%-75%以及30%以上。●管理层对2H25谨慎乐观，并维持2025全年流水目标：尽管安踏品牌1H25整体流水增速低于公司设定的时序进度，但管理层依然维持安踏品牌2025全年高单位数流水增长的目标不变。这意味着2H25的流水（占全年销售额的55%-60%）增速至少达到高单位数范围的上限。管理层的信心主要来源于（1）上半年对部分加盟商门店的改造升级有望在下半年带来正向的帮助，（2）电商渠道管理人员以及结构的调整有望在下半年驱动线上流水的改善。另外，管理层对Fila完成全年中单位数流水增长目标以及其他品牌完成全年30%以上流水增长目标充满信心。但管理层也表示其他品牌（包括迪桑特与可隆）下半年在高基数的影响下增速相较上半年将有所放缓。●1H25业绩展望：我们预计1H25安踏品牌的收入增长略高于流水表现，而Fila的收入增速基本与流水匹配。尽管安踏品牌与Fila的整体折扣水平同比有所加深，但品牌结构的改善（其他品牌的流水增速远高于Fila与安踏）有望部分抵消折扣与渠道结构的影响，令毛利率同比微跌。管理层表示公司1H25对于市场营销以及产品研发方面的投入都较为克制。我们预计安踏品牌的经营利润率同比小幅扩张（主要受益于广告宣传费用率的降低以及政府补贴的增加），而Fila的经营利润率同比有所降低（主要是由于1H24库存减值准备的回拨）。因此，1H25整体的经营利润率可能同比持平或小幅微降。●投资风险：行业需求放缓；安踏收入低于预期；Fila品牌力下降。图表以上内容节选自浦银国际证券于2025年7月16日发布的研究报告《安踏（2020.HK）：管理层对2H25乐观的前景有望对股价带来正向的催化》，欲览报告详情，请点击下方阅读原文。林闻嘉（首席消费分析师）richard_lin@spdbi.com(852) 2808 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