AI界最大对赌协议：OpenAI若宣布实现AGI，微软巨额投资恐一夜清零

腾讯科技2025-07-12

7月12日消息，据外媒报道，一项关于AGI（通用人工智能）触发“合作终止条款”的协议，正成为微软与OpenAI关系紧张的核心导火索。据悉，微软与OpenAI之间的一项保密合作条款规定：一旦OpenAI自行认定实现了AGI，微软将立即失去对其新模型的访问权限，双方长达数年的合作协议也将自动终止。这一条款如今浮出水面，暴露了两家公司在对AGI前景判断上的根本分歧——微软认为AGI仍遥不可及，而...

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overnight","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1,"AGI":1},"content_text":"7月12日消息，据外媒报道，一项关于AGI（通用人工智能）触发“合作终止条款”的协议，正成为微软与OpenAI关系紧张的核心导火索。据悉，微软与OpenAI之间的一项保密合作条款规定：一旦OpenAI自行认定实现了AGI，微软将立即失去对其新模型的访问权限，双方长达数年的合作协议也将自动终止。这一条款如今浮出水面，暴露了两家公司在对AGI前景判断上的根本分歧——微软认为AGI仍遥不可及，而OpenAI坚信AGI已近在眼前。这一“AGI触发条款”早在2023年5月便由微软CEO萨提亚·纳德拉首次披露。当时在接受采访时，他语带轻松地表示：“如果AGI真的是人类的最后一项发明，那之前所有的约定都不再重要。”他承认，一旦OpenAI实现“超级智能”，当前所有合作收益机制都将失效。但纳德拉也补充，不同人对AGI临界点的判断标准存在巨大差异。起初，这一表述并未引起太多关注。但随着OpenAI模型能力飞跃、与微软合作渐趋微妙，该条款的意义日益凸显。据知情人士透露，OpenAI董事会一旦主观判断模型已具备AGI能力，便可单方面终止与微软的合作关系，使微软过去对OpenAI的数十亿美元投资面临“清零”风险。目前，双方正就该条款展开新一轮谈判。这不仅是一场企业合作关系的重新洗牌，更引发了一个更深层的问题：当AGI成为现实，我们如何衡量其颠覆性？而当其掌控权掌握在盈利导向的科技公司手中，将会面临哪些道德和现实问题？人类社会是否已准备好面对这场权力迁移？条款内藏“三重枷锁”，微软被套上“紧箍咒”虽然这项条款的具体内容尚未公开，但知情人士确认，这项条款包含三个关键部分，每部分都具有重要意义。首先，OpenAI董事会拥有单方面宣告AGI成为现实的权力。其判定标准参照OpenAI章程中模糊的表述——“在多数经济价值工作中超越人类的高度自主系统”。微软若质疑此判定，唯一途径就是诉诸法律。其次，OpenAI董事会还需确认其新模型是否“足够AGI”，即模型具备为微软等投资者创造超千亿美元收益的潜力。OpenAI不需要实际赚到这些利润，只需要提供证据，表明其新模型有可能创造如此丰厚的收益即可。对此微软虽拥有异议权，但不能无理阻挠。同样，如果双方有争议，最终可能由法院裁定。OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥特曼本人曾在2023年承认，这些标准确实很模糊。“这给我们的董事会在关键时刻极大的控制权，”他说。但无论如何，如果OpenAI认为它已经实现了AGI，它将不必与微软共享这些模型，微软将只能使用已经过时的早期版本。OpenAI甚至不必再使用微软的云服务器。最后，在合同期限内，微软被禁止自主开发AGI。这或许解释了为何双方关系日趋紧张之际，微软仍坚称不开发前沿AI模型的理由，因为这些模型可能会朝着AGI的方向发展。AGI成真前夜，微软急寻“解套之路”微软当初之所以愿意接受这个“不平等条约”，根本原因在于双方对AGI的认识有着巨大的分歧。知情人士解读，OpenAI团队是真正的“AGI信徒”，坚信这一目标能够实现，因此在协议中加入了“逃生舱条款”，允许其在特定情况下退出或解除合同；而微软高管们则带着“半信半疑”的态度签署了协议，因为他们根本不认为AGI会在2030年前实现。至今，微软依然坚信这一点，并认为其法律团队足以保护公司免受条款的不利影响。然而，随着时间的推移，形势发生了变化。当奥特曼公开表示“AGI有可能在2025年实现” 时，当Meta等公司为争夺AI人才展开“挖角大战”时，微软终于意识到危机正在临近。若OpenAI突然宣告AGI诞生并切断技术支持，微软将立即陷入困境。因为根据合同，微软没有自由开发AGI的权力，只能专注于商业产品。然而，微软现在找到了一种方法，可能帮助其摆脱这项条款带来的困境。OpenAI正在尝试改变其现有的治理结构，计划转型为一家“公益公司”。此举旨在通过取消利润上限，允许投资者和员工持股，帮助OpenAI更好地发展。但这需要微软的同意，这也让其有机会在重新谈判条款时获得更大的杠杆。尽管双方未透露谈判的具体条款，但有报道指出，微软可能要求完全取消上述限制性条款。有人推测，OpenAI可能不再那么在意这项条款了。毕竟，它最初的设想是，AGI不应由盈利驱动的科技巨头垄断。如今，OpenAI的估值已经达到了3000亿美元，并正在转型为一个以“公共利益”为名的商业公司。然而，放弃这项条款或许是一个遗憾。尽管它只是法律术语的堆砌，但它对AGI何时达到颠覆性标准做出了明确的要求。如果这项条款被删除，我们可能会失去至少一个关于AI发展进程的“预警信号”。（文/ 腾讯科技特约编译 金鹿 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