过去一个月涨超9%，银行股“小牛市”还能持续多久

北京商报官方账号2025-07-10

北京商报讯（记者宋亦桐）A股银行股“小牛市”行情持续，7月10日早盘，银行股集体走强，盘中工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行等四大行均创出历史新高，民生银行、贵阳银行、平安银行、郑州银行等个股表现亮眼。在过去一个月里，银行板块整体涨幅达9.66%，这波强劲涨势背后，是经济复苏预期增强、低利率环境下银行股息率的吸引力，以及长期资金的持续流入等多重因素共同发力。分析人士预计，银行股短期有望延续涨势...

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How long can the \"small bull market\" of bank stocks last?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":0.65,"399300":0.65,"600016":0.9,"601288":0.9,"601398":0.9,"601939":0.9,"601988":0.9},"content_text":"北京商报讯（记者宋亦桐）A股银行股“小牛市”行情持续，7月10日早盘，银行股集体走强，盘中工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行等四大行均创出历史新高，民生银行、贵阳银行、平安银行、郑州银行等个股表现亮眼。在过去一个月里，银行板块整体涨幅达9.66%，这波强劲涨势背后，是经济复苏预期增强、低利率环境下银行股息率的吸引力，以及长期资金的持续流入等多重因素共同发力。分析人士预计，银行股短期有望延续涨势，中长期则可能呈现结构分化的“慢牛”态势。从盘面表现来看，截至7月10日收盘，42家A股上市银行中，有34家银行股收涨，民生银行以5.31%领涨，贵阳银行涨幅达到3.24%；工商银行、郑州银行、平安银行、宁波银行、招商银行、兰州银行等涨幅超过2%，另有农业银行、西安银行、华夏银行、紫金农商行、常熟农商行5家银行股价涨幅超1%。银行股的强势表现，主要得益于经济复苏预期增强、低利率环境下银行股息率的吸引力，以及长期资金的持续流入。2025年开年至今，国内大型保险资金大举增持银行股，且持股比例普遍提升。此外，社保基金等长期资金也基于资产配置的需要，不断增加对银行股的配置比例。这些长期资金的持续涌入，为银行股提供了坚实的资金支撑，推动股价不断攀升。东方财富数据显示，在6月10日至7月10日近一个月的时间里，银行板块表现亮眼，整体涨幅达9.66%。苏商银行特约研究员高政扬指出，2025年以来，银行板块股价持续走强并屡创历史新高，是多重市场力量共振的结果，银行股的强势表现有坚实底层逻辑支撑。基本面方面，盈利端改善与资产质量修复是核心动力。2025年5月的非对称性降息降低银行负债成本，缓解息差压力；非息收入增长显著，消费复苏带动银行卡手续费收入回暖，资本市场活跃推动理财业务收入回升。同时，房企融资协调机制与地方债务置换政策落地，使对公贷款不良率边际改善，资产质量修复确定性增强。“资金配置层面，中长期资金加速入场推动估值修复，”高政扬强调，保险资金等长期资金加大配置，与银行股稳定性匹配；公募基金对银行板块的低配状态正被修正，资金流入形成正向循环。当前银行板块市净率0.72倍，低于全球平均水平，且股息率高于10年期国债收益率，兼具“类固收+低估值”属性，是优质的标的。对于银行股“小牛市”行情的持续性，市场看法不一，一些分析人士指出，在当前低利率的大背景下，银行股所具备的高股息优势仍将保持吸引力，而机构资金的持续注入，也会为这波行情提供有力支撑，因此上涨趋势有望继续维持。不过，也有不少投资者持保守态度，随着银行股股价一路走高，估值已然水涨船高，部分银行股的股息率也随之出现了下滑，这在一定程度上削弱了对投资者的吸引力，此外，净息差持续收窄的压力始终存在，可能制约银行股后续的上涨动能。“全球政治经济环境不确定性加剧，银行股因高股息、低波动的防御性，成为避险资金承接方向，”高政扬进一步指出，存款搬家效应下，低风险偏好资金通过银行股再平衡资产配置，强化了板块吸引力。短期需警惕涨幅过大引发的波动，但中长期看，险资与公募配置比例仍有提升空间，叠加居民储蓄向权益类资产转移趋势，银行股有望持续吸引资金流入，短期有望延续涨势，中长期则可能呈现结构分化的“慢牛”态势。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2550624520","isCrawlerRequest":true}