小摩前瞻阿斯麦(ASML.US)二季报：符合共识预期即胜利

智通财经2025-07-10

智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示，巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩重申对阿斯麦“增持”评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态度，但鉴于“26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1316199.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示，巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩重申对阿斯麦“增持”评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态度，但鉴于“26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1316199.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0964807845.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) 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victory","themeId":"581853c9098b057ca8aef25c94b2f960","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":1,"03165":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示，巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩重申对阿斯麦“增持”评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态度，但鉴于“26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的指引中值增长 7.7%”，小摩认为中期风险较低。投资者仍关注“26 年的销售额”。投资者对阿斯麦在26 年的前景愈发看淡，原因有多个。目前订单共识预期为 48 亿欧元，较第一季度增长 22%，而这种强劲的增长能否持续(较上一季度增长 8.6 亿欧元)几乎完全取决于台积电(TSM.US)在本季度是否能收到26 年的订单(买方共识预期则为 45 亿欧元——环比增长约 14%)。如果台积电在26 年的所有订单都能在第二季度收到，那么阿斯麦将会轻松超过订单预期(小摩估计超过 50%的台积电26 年的EUV订单仍未收到);如果其中一些订单能收到，那么订单预期也可能被超越。然而，如果像在25年第一季度，台积电推迟下达订单，那么订单预期就会无法达成。这种不确定性意味着，尽管小摩认为26 年的预测没有重大风险，但公司即将公布的业绩表现仍存在不确定性。如果该公司能够达到市场普遍预期的水平，鉴于市场仓位，小摩认为该股票在这一结果公布后会表现强劲。阿斯麦的订单量波动(这是市场在季度业绩报告中关注的焦点数据)在过去一年中一直非常大，原因是没有显著的三星或英特尔订单;导致订单高度依赖台积电、海力士、美光等。小摩预计26年的 WFE 将在 26 年增长 6-9%，这是由强劲的台积电资本支出(增长 10%以上)以及由 HBM 投资增加(在25年以厂房建设为重点之后)驱动的，但被稳定的三星支出和较弱的英特尔支出所抵消。小摩对阿斯麦Q2业绩预期小摩预计该公司将报告营收 74.33 亿欧元(环比下降 4.0%，同比增长 19.1%)，这比市场预期低 1.0%，与指引区间中间值 74.5 亿欧元相符。小摩预计该公司第二季度订单额为 41.9 亿欧元，这比市场预期低 12.6%，反映了鉴于季度订单的可预测性较低、对订单量的保守看法。然而，这比我们收集到的买方市场预期的 45 亿欧元低 6.9%(见此处)。在盈利能力方面，小摩对 51.5%的毛利率(公司指引范围为 50-53%)的估计与市场预期一致。小摩预计阿斯麦第二季度的EBIT为 23.25 亿欧元(31.3%的利润率)，比市场预期低 3.3%(利润率预期比市场预期低 77 个基点)。小摩的每股收益预期为 5.11 欧元/股，比市场预期低 2.7%。小摩预计阿斯麦在第二季度业绩中会缩小 2025 年的指引范围，并且 2025 年的收入指引应在300 亿至 350 亿欧元的中间值附近。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport,preview","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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