中国创新药：出海黄金时代游到海水变蓝

中信建投证券2025-07-12

报告背景：今年以来中国创新药出海授权从数量和金额均出现重要突破，跨国药企深化与中国创新药企的战略合作乃大势所趋，此举将开创互利共赢的新局面。后续出海浪潮趋势如何演绎，已成为市场高度瞩目的焦点。报告亮点：我们相信，本篇报告无论是对于产业界还是投资界，都有重要的参考价值。因为我们全面深入剖析了跨国药企（MNC）的在研管线、战略重心及核心诉求，预测其未来BD可能的重要方向；全面评估了三大重要疾病领域的...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250712202520a6a57a5e&s=b><strong>中信建投证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>报告背景：今年以来中国创新药出海授权从数量和金额均出现重要突破，跨国药企深化与中国创新药企的战略合作乃大势所趋，此举将开创互利共赢的新局面。后续出海浪潮趋势如何演绎，已成为市场高度瞩目的焦点。报告亮点：我们相信，本篇报告无论是对于产业界还是投资界，都有重要的参考价值。因为我们全面深入剖析了跨国药企（MNC）的在研管线、战略重心及核心诉求，预测其未来BD可能的重要方向；全面评估了三大重要疾病领域的...</p>\n\n<a 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blue","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159992":1,"600276":0.9,"688266":0.9,"688331":0.9,"06160":0.9},"content_text":"报告背景：今年以来中国创新药出海授权从数量和金额均出现重要突破，跨国药企深化与中国创新药企的战略合作乃大势所趋，此举将开创互利共赢的新局面。后续出海浪潮趋势如何演绎，已成为市场高度瞩目的焦点。报告亮点：我们相信，本篇报告无论是对于产业界还是投资界，都有重要的参考价值。因为我们全面深入剖析了跨国药企（MNC）的在研管线、战略重心及核心诉求，预测其未来BD可能的重要方向；全面评估了三大重要疾病领域的基石药物、新兴靶点及新技术的变化；深度评估了中国创新药资产的竞争力。具体而言，本篇报告梳理了MNC的专利悬崖情况、在手类现金资产情况，直观客观分析MNC做BD的意愿和资金实力。分析梳理了各家MNC的战略重心、和BD方向的可能性探讨，对MNC BD的战略性方向进行全局性概览。分为肿瘤、代谢、免疫三大板块，详细梳理对比分析了各重点方向/靶点领域的MNC布局和中国相应创新药资产情况，分析梳理后续潜在重点关注项目。核心观点：中国创新药出海BD浪潮蓬勃。主因中国创新药实力增强，十年创新努力终开花结果。而与此同时，MNC重磅药物专利悬崖即将到来，大多现金充沛，BD迫在眉睫。尤其例如BMS未来5年可能面临收入占比69%的专利悬崖且手握109亿美元类现金，默沙东未来5年可能面临收入占比63%的专利悬崖且手握137亿美元类现金。BD思路可能性：①专利悬崖领域，②新进入者领域，③小产品多但缺重磅领域，④新技术。预计中国出海BD持续蓬勃。25H2重点关注肿瘤领域的PD-1/VEGF，PD-1/IL2，EGFR ADC，DLL3 ADC，DLL3/DLL3/CD3，代谢领域的GLP-1，ActIIR，Amylin，免疫领域的TSLP、TYK2、TCE、PDE3/4。2026年及后续重点关注肿瘤领域的双抗ADC如EGFR/Her3 ADC,EGFR/c-met ADC、多抗TCE如GPRC5D/BCMA/CD3，代谢领域的GGG+X，免疫领域的TCE、TL1A、IRAK4 protac、TSLP、多抗等。细分板块来看：肿瘤：从“PD-1+化疗”转向“下一代IO+下一代ADC”。肿瘤是市场规模最大的疾病领域，孕育近300亿美元药王。PD-1后时代，下一代IO+下一代ADC将成为肿瘤领域的制高点，我们预期也会成为MNC在肿瘤领域的BD重点。下一代IO领域中，此前MNC探索多年但未出有效成果，当下需BD中国创新资产有如PD-1/VEGF，PD-1/IL2加速跟进。ADC领域中，MNC曾在Her2/Trop2探索中领先，当下开始BD引入中国的新兴靶点ADC和双抗ADC等。肿瘤领域潜在MNC买家有：缺少下一代IO的阿斯利康，持续补强ADC的辉瑞、默沙东，处于追赶者状态的艾伯维、BMS、罗氏、GSK等。代谢：从追求减重幅度，到减脂增肌和综合代谢管理。心血管代谢是重要的疾病领域，影响人群广，基石药物GLP-1或将成为新药王。我们预期在MNC BD方向上：①GLP-1将成为必备基础款，对于新进入者来说，直接选择口服GLP-1最有可能性。②减脂增肌/保肌将成为BD弯道超车重点方向，尤其是已经验证的ActRII通路，如果相比礼来Bimagrumab有进一步优化则估计会受到MNC的重点关注，或者是Amylin当中副作用相对较为温和的。③双靶/三靶+X将成为锦上添花的综合代谢管理探索方向。代谢领域潜在MNC买家有：意图全面布局的诺和诺德，追赶者阿斯利康，新进入者罗氏、艾伯维、默沙东等。免疫与炎症：新生物学靶点、新工程学技术。免疫与炎症是仅次于肿瘤的第二大疾病领域，已涌现多款百亿美元级别重磅药物。我们预期在MNCBD方向上：①新兴靶点：STAT6、TL1A、IRAK4、TSLP等，②工程学革新方向：双抗、TCE、Protac等。免疫与炎症领域潜在MNC买家有：持续补强的自免龙头艾伯维、强生、赛诺菲，新兴发力者罗氏、GSK、阿斯利康、默沙东等。投资建议：中国创新药管线国际化竞争力持续提升，新技术推动行业快速发展，国家政策鼓励创新药发展，看好相关创新药及制药企业。相关公司包括A股公司恒瑞医药、百济神州、新诺威、荣昌生物、泽璟制药、华东医药，H股公司信达生物、康方生物、科伦博泰、三生制药、石药集团、荣昌生物、再鼎医药、映恩生物、中国生物制药、康诺亚、和黄医药、金斯瑞生物科技、歌礼制药、来凯医药、亚盛医药、和铂医药等。风险提示：审评不及预期风险，行业政策风险，研发不及预期风险，销售不及预期风险，市场竞争加剧风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中国创新药：出海黄金时代 游到海水变蓝

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中国创新药：出海黄金时代游到海水变蓝