食品饮料行业2025年中报业绩前瞻：白酒业绩承压大众品分化

广发证券股份有...2025-07-08

核心观点：周度聚焦：2025 年中报业绩前瞻。（1）白酒：受518 新政下消费场景缺失的影响，白酒需求承压。高端酒价盘普遍回落，先款后货模式下部分企业Q2 仍有望延续增长趋势。次高端商务需求仍弱、汾酒优势领先，地产酒龙头Q2 起或逐步释放表端压力；（2）啤酒：25Q2 主要啤酒企业预计多数能实现同比增长，成本红利与费用使用效率提升贡献盈利能力上行，其中预计燕京啤酒归母净利润的成长性最为明显；（3）...

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快速增长态势，康师傅预计25H1 收入稳定的情况下利润有较好增长。Q2 以来液奶需求持续承压，低温奶好于常温奶，整体库存回归良性。（4）调味品：Q2餐饮需求平淡，动销整体较弱，渠道库存累积，马太效应增强。盈利方面，原材料价格分化，费用整体收缩，预计多数企业盈利能力提升。（5）速冻食品：淡季需求承压，静待改善。我们认为2025Q2 以来餐饮业需求延续压力，上游速冻食品企业在淡季下亦表现相对疲软，龙头企业通过新品布局及渠道拓展积极抢占市占率，蓄力旺季。立高食品山姆新品持续放量，改革效率进一步提升，业绩弹性较佳。（6）休闲食品：板块间分化加剧，新渠道和新品为增长核心，渠道角度看，25Q2 抖音零食销售额增速稳健但企业策略分化，山姆和零食量贩为核心增长抓手；产品角度看，魔芋和山姆新品交相辉映，盐津和卫龙收入增长依托魔芋大单品放量，有友山姆新品为业绩增长的核心驱动力。周度跟踪：（1）上周(6.30-7.4)食品饮料板块涨跌幅+0.6%，在申万一级行业中排名20/31，跑输沪深300 指数0.9pct。子板块中肉制品、白酒涨跌幅排名靠前，软饮料、零食涨跌幅排名靠后。（2）截至7 月4 日，食品饮料/白酒板块PE-TTM 绝对估值分别为21.0x/18.0x。相对估值（较沪深300）分别为1.58/1.36 倍。投资建议：（1）大众品方面：大众品行业渠道变革，消费者追求“性价比+高价值”。为适应消费趋势和渠道变化，我国大众品企业需关注性价比、健康、便捷、功能等需求，产品力强的细分赛道龙头有望受益。此外，大众品龙头出海亦存在发展机遇，核心推荐：燕京啤酒、立高食品、天味食品、盐津铺子、劲仔食品、东鹏饮料、新乳业、千禾味业、华润啤酒、康师傅控股。（2）白酒方面：白酒历经四年调整期，2025 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食品饮料行业2025年中报业绩前瞻：白酒业绩承压 大众品分化

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食品饮料行业2025年中报业绩前瞻：白酒业绩承压大众品分化