电力行业2025年半年报前瞻：火电业绩展望积极清洁能源或有分化

长江证券2025-07-07

煤价延续同比回落，主导火电经营表现三大核心因素共同影响火电盈利的变化，煤价、电价和电量。首先从电价维度而言，从各省代理购电价格来看，二季度各地区电价普遍有所回落，蒙东、新疆、天津等北方地区表现相对强势。从煤价角度而言，受供强需弱影响，二季度秦港Q5500 大卡现货煤价中枢同比降低216.85元/吨，秦港Q5500 年度长协煤价均值同比下降25 元/吨。按电企长协及现货煤各占一半假设，二季度综合煤价...

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年度长协煤价均值同比下降25 元/吨。按电企长协及现货煤各占一半假设，二季度综合煤价降幅将带来火电燃料成本约0.041 元/千瓦时的同比下降，而考虑到大量北方电厂扣税后电价降幅低于成本端回落，因此火电经营修复趋势有望延续。最后从电量的表现来看，二季度火电电量增速环比有所改善，但整体仍然偏弱。综合电价、煤价、电量三个维度，虽然同比来看火电利用小时数以及电价均有所回落，但煤炭价格的显著回落或仍将使得火电经营维持稳定，而且尤其北方电厂及华东部分省份火电电厂电价降幅相对更小，且华中及华东部分省份利用小时相对坚挺，预计火电经营业绩仍将维持同比改善。水电电量承压核电稳增，业绩表现或有分化二季度以来，去年同期基数偏高叠加降雨偏少，4-5 月我国水电发电量同比下降11.02%，6 月三峡（14 点）出库流量均值同比下降7.51%，全国水电电量增速预计或将延续偏弱。但考虑主要水电上市公司资产质地优于行业平均，具备更强的调节能力，通过优化水库调度及蓄水节奏等仍有望平滑来水波动，部分水电公司二季度业绩仍有望实现稳健增长。核电方面，得益于装机规模较去年同比增长且机组检修天数同比减少，4-5 月核电发电量同比增长9.57%。对于两核而言，由于江苏及两广的市场化电价有所回落，对核电市场化部分的电量也存在一定影响，其中：中国核电由于受市场化电价影响相对较小，但新能源板块受股比降低影响或有所承压，在电量表现优异的带动二季度整体业绩预计仍将稳健增长；而中国广核由于受市场化电价冲击面相对偏大，二季度业绩或将延续承压。风光电量稳步增长，区域主导业绩差异得益于新增装机维持高位， 4-5 月份风电和光伏发电量分别同比增长11.87%、11.68%；4-5月风电、光伏利用小时同比下降7 小时、37 小时。但各省利用小时表现存在差异，华东及华中地区主要省份风电利用小时有所提升，而如广东、福建等东南沿海省份利用小时显著下降。因此，新增装机的拉动一定程度能够对冲偏弱的风光资源及电价表现，但受区域分布影响，二季度新能源运营商的业绩或有所分化，均衡布局于全国地区的绿电龙头龙源电力、三峡能源等或将实现积极的业绩表现，而部分区域性新能源运营商业绩或将有所承压。投资建议考虑年初以来部分省份火电相对更强势的业绩表现，推荐关注优质转型火电运营商华电国际、华润电力、华能国际、国电电力、中国电力、福能股份和部分广东地区火电公司；水电板块推荐优质大水电长江电力、国投电力和华能水电；新能源三重底部共振下，行业投资长夜将明，推荐龙源电力H、中国核电、中闽能源。风险提示1、电力供需存在恶化风险；2、风况、光照资源与来水不及预期风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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电力行业2025年半年报前瞻：火电业绩展望积极 清洁能源或有分化

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电力行业2025年半年报前瞻：火电业绩展望积极清洁能源或有分化