有色金属行业大宗金属周报：232调查和降息预期交织催化铜价震荡偏强

华源证券2025-07-06

铜：232 调查和降息预期交织催化，铜价震荡偏强。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为+0.25%/-0.24%/+0.23%。本周铜价先涨后跌，周二铜价大幅上涨，市场主要在交易铜232 调查落地时间延后，市场预期抢运延续。周四美国6 月非农超预期，降息预期回落，从而驱动铜价回落。库存方面，本周三大交易所铜库存均有所回升，纽铜库存持续增加，表明库存转移仍在继续。伦铜/纽铜/沪铜库存分别为9.5 万吨/...

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万吨，环比提升3.0%，沪铝库存9.5 万吨，环比提升0.36%。铝价上行空间或受限于淡季需求及挤仓缓解，维持2.0-2.1 万元/吨的判断。建议关注：中孚实业、宏创控股、云铝股份、电投能源、天山铝业、神火股份、中国铝业、焦作万方。锂：锂价底部小幅反弹，主要受“反内卷”催化，静待后续矿端减产及旺季需求支撑。本周碳酸锂价格上涨1.88%至6.23 万元/吨，锂辉石精矿上涨3.82%至653 美元/吨。供给端，本周碳酸锂产量1.81 万吨，环比减少3.4%。SMM 周度库存13.83万吨，环比增加1.1%。本周锂价实现小幅反弹，主要受“反内卷”催化，目前锂价仍在底部震荡区间运行，供给端，矿端仍未看到明显减产，库存仍在累积，静待后续矿端减产。需求端，当前处于锂需求淡季，维持刚需采购为主，等待后续旺季需求支撑。当前锂价下冶炼厂多处于亏损状态，成本支撑下锂价下行空间有限，后续重点关注供给端冶炼厂和矿端减产事件以及需求端的边际改善。我们建议关注具备第二增长曲线的低估值标的和仍具备锂自给率提升和降本空间标的：雅化集团（锂+民爆）、中矿资源（锂+小金属+铜）、永兴材料、赣锋锂业。钴：刚果金延长钴出口禁令3 个月，关注钴价反弹机会。在刚果金钴出口禁令延长3个月催化下，本周国内电钴价格上涨4.1%至25.4 万元/吨。6 月21 日，刚果金宣布将钴出口临时禁令再延长3 个月，以遏制钴国际市场供应过剩。出口禁令延长将加速钴原料库存去化，Q4 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有色金属行业大宗金属周报：232调查和降息预期交织催化 铜价震荡偏强

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有色金属行业大宗金属周报：232调查和降息预期交织催化铜价震荡偏强