机械行业周报：看好工程机械、燃气轮机和船舶

国金证券2025-07-06

行情回顾本周板块表现：上周（2025/06/30-2025/07/04）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨0.26%，在申万31 个一级行业分类中排名第24；同期沪深300 指数上涨1.54%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨8.29%，在申万31个一级行业分类中排名第7；同期沪深300 指数上涨1.20%。核心观点工程机械开工景气度短期波动，不改内需复苏长逻辑。6 月工程机械主要...

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万台。更新周期带动的内销复苏长逻辑有望维持，带动主机厂业绩持续增长。建议关注三一重工、徐工机械、中联重科、柳工、恒立液压。两机业务增长加速+低空业务即将进入批量交付期，持续看好应流股份。1）燃机龙头西门子能源2023-25H1 燃机订单增速分别为9%/27%/60%，持续加速增长；航发龙头赛峰规划2025 年交付量增长15%-20%，带动叶片、机匣需求上行。而应流股份在25Q1 与西门子能源、赛峰签署战略供货协议，带动订单、收入持续高增。2）低空领域公司布局涡轴发动机、混动系统、无人机等产品，公司优势在于航发业务积累的热端零部件技术， 助力公司在航发环节实现自主可控，公司规划将发动机零部件自供比例提升至70%+。目前已经与翊飞航空等企业签署合作协议，预计25 年开始少量交付，26 年加速交付，带动公司收入长期提升。新造船价格企稳回升+南北船重组提速，把握当前船舶板块布局机会。25 年6 月全球新船价格指数187.11，环比+0.22%，是今年2 月以来的首次环比提升，说明行业景气度已出现拐点向上信号。同时成本端，6 月上海20mm 造船钢板平均价格同比-6.71%，环比-1.09%，造船价依旧保持下滑态势，船价-钢价剪刀差拉大，看好船企盈利能力提升。此外，2025 年7 月4 日，中国船舶公告称，公司发行股份吸收合并中国重工的重大资产重组事项，获上海证券交易所并购重组审核委员会审议通过。南北船合并后有望规范同业竞争，同时收入和资产扩大后产生规模效应，看好中国船舶未来全球竞争力和盈利能力提升，建议关注国内造船企业龙头中国船舶和船舶发动机龙头中国动力。细分行业景气指标：通用机械（持续承压）、工程机械（稳健向上）、船舶（下行趋缓）、油服设备（ 底部企稳）、铁路装备（稳健向上）、燃气轮机（稳健向上）。投资建议见“股票组合”。风险提示宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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