光伏板块集体沸腾上演涨停潮，反弹还是反转？

澎湃新闻2025-07-02

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级　　炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　7月2日，A股市场窄幅震荡，光伏产业链逆市走强，玻璃和硅料细分领域表现突出。截至收盘，秀强股份（300160.SZ）、大烨智能（300670.SZ）20%涨停，大全能源（688303.SH）、艾能聚（834770.BJ）、东方日升（300118.SZ）、艾罗能源（...

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　　7月2日，A股市场窄幅震荡，光伏产业链逆市走强，玻璃和硅料细分领域表现突出。截至收盘，秀强股份（300160.SZ）、大烨智能（300670.SZ）20%涨停，大全能源（688303.SH）、艾能聚（834770.BJ）、东方日升（300118.SZ）、艾罗能源（688717.SH）、双良节能（600481.SH）、赛伍技术（603212.SH）、亿晶光电（600537.SH）、欧晶科技（001269.SZ）、福莱特（601865.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）、亚玛顿（002623.SZ）等20多只股票涨停或涨超10%，晶澳科技（002459.SZ）、TCL中环（002129.SZ）、隆基绿能（601012.SH）、天合光能（688599.SH）等龙头涨逾4%。\n　　据澎湃新闻了解，今日光伏板块久违大涨，与高层会议释放重磅信号和减产传闻有关。\n　　宏观层面，据新华社消息，7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；规范政府采购和招标投标，加强对中标结果的公平性审查；规范地方招商引资，加强招商引资信息披露。\n　　此外，人民日报近日在头版发表金社平文章《在破除“内卷式”竞争中实现高质量发展》，点名光伏组件、新能源汽车、储能系统的价格战。文章称，破除“内卷式”竞争，关键在于统筹好有为政府与有效市场的关系。政府有引导、行业有自律、企业有行动，综合整治“内卷式”竞争就能稳步推进、见到成效。\n　　供需严重错配下，光伏行业已连续六个季度全行业亏损。业内认为，重磅会议召开与人民日报的“反内卷”发声标志着政策与监管信号增强，有助于缓解当前的价格战压力，形成行业底部支撑。\n　　供给侧出清也迎来新进展。上海有色网称，近日光伏玻璃企业聚集讨论当前供需矛盾，多数玻璃企业计划7月开始减产改善供应端，减产规模预计将达到30%。部分玻璃企业库存接近45天，临近爆仓。在库存的压力影响下，玻璃价格开始下跌，且连续跌至成本线下，这也是为本轮光伏玻璃企业减产的初始原因。\n　　亚玛顿董秘刘芹公开确认了上述减产传闻的真实性。她表示，光伏玻璃行业减产确有其事，产能出清进程正在加速推进。这一调整将有助于促进行业实现可持续发展目标。\n　　多晶硅期货主力合约午后涨幅一度触及涨停，也是推动今日光伏概念股上行的重要催化剂。受此影响，硅料龙头纷纷大涨。\n　　反弹能否变反转？短暂狂欢过后，光伏行业距离全面脱困尚早。\n　　近日，高盛下调全球光伏行业的产能出清拐点预期，认为可能推迟至2026年下半年。原因包括产能退出需要经历2-3年的财务亏损压力测试；需求增长与产能消化存在时间差；技术、政策、贸易环境等变量调整缓慢等。该机构认为，高成本产能预计在2025年开始大规模退出，但完全出清需持续到2026年。\n　　这也是业内较为主流的判断。澎湃新闻在SNEC期间与多家光伏企业高管交流时感受到，行业对下半年的装机需求普遍悲观，三季度尤甚。全球需求阶段性下滑、电价体系彻底重构、过剩产能难以清退，中国光伏行业面临大考，寒冬将蔓延至2026年。\n　　光伏行情能否提前反转，仍需等待更多政策落地与技术升级的双重催化。\n　　澎湃新闻记者 杨漾\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘万里 SF014","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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