逼近历史新低！美股“广度”在崩溃

华尔街见闻2025-07-01

标普500创下6000点历史新高之际，市场广度却接近有史以来最差纪录。美银最新报告显示，尽管标普500指数连续创出新高，但这轮突破的参与面极度有限，仅22只标普500成分股达到历史高点。这一数字远低于历史上其他重要突破时期——1991年2月有51只股票创新高，1998年11月为66只，2007年5月达到82只，2013年3月更是高达97只，2024年1月为67只，2020年8月为54只，都远超当前...

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The \"breadth\" of US stocks is collapsing","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0ed4ac9b02e16ffb52ee898db7d095b","symbols_score_info":{"VOO":0.87,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"标普500创下6000点历史新高之际，市场广度却接近有史以来最差纪录。美银最新报告显示，尽管标普500指数连续创出新高，但这轮突破的参与面极度有限，仅22只标普500成分股达到历史高点。这一数字远低于历史上其他重要突破时期——1991年2月有51只股票创新高，1998年11月为66只，2007年5月达到82只，2013年3月更是高达97只，2024年1月为67只，2020年8月为54只，都远超当前的22只。美国银行分析师Michael Hartnett指出，这是自1990年以来第七次重大突破中参与股票数量最少的一次。高盛交易团队在日前的报告中强调了这种前所未有的市场广度恶化现象。该行美股策略主管David Kostin在最新报告中指出，“标普500的反弹呈现出极度狭窄的特征，在过去几十年中堪称最集中的上涨之一”。他警告，标普500的市场广度即将触及历史新低。数据显示，传统的市场广度指标——衡量指数与成分股表现分化程度——即将触及历史新低。科技股主导下的极端集中科技股再次成为美股上涨的主要驱动力，延续了过去一年的趋势，凸显了这轮牛市的极度集中化特征。高盛策略师Peter Oppenheimer的最新研究显示，前十大公司目前占据标普500市值的38%和利润的30%，均创历史纪录。这种极端集中反映了市场对少数几家科技巨头的过度依赖，特别是所谓的“Mag7”（七大科技股）在推动指数表现方面发挥的决定性作用。罗素2000指数的表现进一步印证了市场的分化程度。该指数目前仍较历史高点下跌约11%，与大盘股的强劲表现形成鲜明对比。后续美股涨幅或将放缓尽管技术面显示强劲势头，高盛对未来12个月的预期相对保守。Kostin预计标普500在未来12个月将上涨5%至6500点，考虑到指数在过去两周已上涨近5%，这一预期显得相当温和。值得注意的是，7月历史上是标普500表现最强的月份之一，过去十年从未录得负收益，平均回报率为1.67%。高盛交易团队预计市场可能在7月17日前后见顶，随后出现回调，但也承认7月的“风险事件”可能使这一时点提前。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2548592073","isCrawlerRequest":true}