国金非银舒思勤｜2025年中期策略：新准则下估值体系将重塑，重视保险股价值重估机会

国金证券研究所2025-07-01

作者：舒思勤、黄佳慧摘要■核心观点：一、负债端Margin驱动NBV增长，资产端Q3基数抬升面临较大压力。负债端：25Q1代理人渠道新单销售整体低迷，受益于报行合一下低基数与“1+3”网点合作限制放开后头部险企加大资源投入与战略合作，银保渠道大幅增长，预定利率切换以及个别公司缴别拉长（平安、人保寿险）带来Margin 提升，新业务价值实现较高增长。展望后续，预计10月预定利率将再次下调，传统险销售...

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提升，新业务价值实现较高增长。展望后续，预计10月预定利率将再次下调，传统险销售难度将大幅提升，分红险转型成为必然选择，考虑到分红险渠道培训、客户接受度均需一定时间，销售难度较传统险加大，叠加银保渠道下半年基数抬升，预计新单增长存在较大压力，但Margin提升仍可驱动大部分公司实现双位数NBV增长。资产端：25Q1整体投资收益受到利率上行导致的FVPL债券浮亏的短期影响，Q2债市略好于去年同期，A股表现好于去年同期，港股略弱于去年，因此整体Q2利润增长面临基数压力并不大，预计Q2利润单季表现平稳，Q3开始基数抬升预计全年利润正增压力较大。二、新准则下净资产已反映资负两端公允价值变动，估值体系将重塑。市场对于EV体系估值的信任度在降低。该体系我们认为存在两个可信度的问题：调整净资产的负债评估利率是一个手动调整的数据，并且没有跟随市场利率及时变化；有效业务价值（VIF）的投资收益率假设为4%，长期实现或有难度。用P/（净资产+调整后CSM）来对保险股进行估值更为合理。一方面，净资产相对调整净资产来说，能更及时反应市场利率的变化。另一方面，CSM相对于VIF来说是一个更保守的指标，VIF考虑了全口径的投资收益，CSM评估使用的是固收投资收益率水平（并且是新单签单时的即期利率），未考虑权益投资的收益增厚，真实投资收益率和CSM评估利率的差异是体现在后续每一期的利润中。调整后CSM考虑了以下调整：1）税收：CSM为税前概念，我们使用0.85的税率折扣（保险公司有大量免税资产，税率远低于75%）；2）不透明折扣：打7折；3）VFA模型折现率处理方法各家有差异，我们将VFA模型使用预期投资收益率的公司（除平安、国寿之外的公司）的VFA对应的CSM打三三折。以P/(净资产+调整后CSM)=1为合理估值，倒算出保险公司的PB应为1.5-2之间，绝大部分公司被严重低估。 P/(净资产+调整后CSM)的计算结果为：国寿、平安、太保、新华A股分别为：1.19、0.73、0.76、0.99倍，相对于1的向上空间分别为-16%、37%、32%、1%；国寿、平安、太保、新华H股分别为0.50、0. 58、0.50、0.63倍，相对于1的向上空间分别为98%、73%、99%、58%；太平H、阳光H、友邦H分别为0.28、0.37、1.24倍，相对于1的向上空间分别为200%以上，169%、-20%。三、风险提示：新单销售不及预期，权益市场波动，长端利率大幅下行，分红险转型不及预期。+目录01 负债端与资产端回顾与展望02 新准则下估值体系将重塑03 风险提示正文01 负债端与资产端回顾与展望02 新准则下估值体系将重塑03 风险提示新单销售不及预期：10月预定利率将再次下调，传统寿险产品吸引力下降不可避免，或对新单销售形成影响；权益市场波动：将直接降低公司的投资收益，拖累利润表现；长端利率大幅下行：资产端再投资压力加大，进一步引发市场对保险公司利差损的担忧；分红险转型不及预期：市场存在传统险销售惯性，分红险渠道培训、客户接受度均需一定时间，销售难度较传统险加大。阅读全文《2025中期策略：新准则下估值体系将重塑，重视保险股价值重估机会》＋报告信息证券研究报告：《2025中期策略：新准则下估值体系将重塑，重视保险股价值重估机会》报告日期：2025年06月22日作者：舒思勤SAC执业编号：S1130524040001黄佳慧 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