标普全球：氯碱行业的好日子即将到来

中国化工报2025-07-01

标普全球商品洞察公司的市场分析人士近日表示，清洁能源转型正在推动氯碱产品结构性需求增长，虽然聚氯乙烯(PVC)树脂行业似乎还处于长下行周期，但2025年可能是PVC市场的低点，未来行情将有所反弹。该公司无机产品业务总监阿尔文·昂表示：“今年可能是PVC行业低谷，产品价格或达到本世纪以来的最低点。”近年来，PVC市场受到全球供应过剩和建筑需求疲软的影响，尤其在亚洲市场，不过这种情况将很快改善。由于...

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industry","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPGI":1},"content_text":"标普全球商品洞察公司的市场分析人士近日表示，清洁能源转型正在推动氯碱产品结构性需求增长，虽然聚氯乙烯(PVC)树脂行业似乎还处于长下行周期，但2025年可能是PVC市场的低点，未来行情将有所反弹。该公司无机产品业务总监阿尔文·昂表示：“今年可能是PVC行业低谷，产品价格或达到本世纪以来的最低点。”近年来，PVC市场受到全球供应过剩和建筑需求疲软的影响，尤其在亚洲市场，不过这种情况将很快改善。由于太阳能、风能、生物燃料和电池金属等领域需求的提升，全球烧碱需求将稳步增长，PVC市场也有望迎来周期性复苏。对整个氯碱行业来说，PVC树脂生产仍然是全球氯碱行业的最大终端应用，但清洁能源技术的推广正在催生新的需求。比如在欧洲和美国，PVC地板作为地暖系统的地面覆盖材料，这相较于传统壁炉供暖具有显著的成本效益优势。另外，双面太阳能电池板的增长也在增加玻璃消费，这反过来又提升了烧碱和氯的需求。阿尔文·昂指出，到2028年，双面太阳能板组件将占全球太阳能电池板安装量的61%左右。‌氯气可以用于净化硅片并提高玻璃透明度，烧碱则用于中和酸性废物并增强表面光洁度。风能基础设施建设也在促进氯碱需求的增长，其中的涡轮机涂料和黏合剂都要用到氯碱。随着全球风电装机容量持续扩大，预计到2030年由此带动的氯碱应用将强劲增长。烧碱在整个清洁能源链中发挥着更广泛的作用，从铝精炼、生物柴油催化到聚乳酸(PLA)生物塑料的生产。阿尔文·昂表示，2024年，仅氧化铝精炼行业的全球烧碱需求就达到1740万吨，随着铝在电动汽车和可再生能源基础设施中发挥作用越来越大，预计烧碱需求还将继续增加。他说：“真正的情况是能源转型正在创造需求并改变氯碱行业生产。”最后，PVC仍然是许多基础设施和终端产品应用的首选材料。因此，他认为，氯碱行业的好日子即将到来，尽管速度可能会很慢。氯碱行业还与生物塑料行业相互促进。目前国际社会对更可持续材料的广泛推动促进了PLA等生物塑料的使用。标普全球商品洞察公司化学咨询执行董事霍尔木兹德·卡兰贾表示，从2025年到2030年，包括中国、欧洲和美国在内的全球PLA市场预计将以9.1%的年复合增长率增长至45.5万吨以上。卡兰贾表示，在全球化学品和塑料消费量不断增加的情况下，只有9%的塑料废物被回收，而22%的塑料废物处置不当，表明改进废物管理策略非常迫切。他认为，在食品包装和相关应用中使用可生物降解聚合物，如PLA来减少塑料废物是可行之策。PLA的加工将成为氯碱行业的发展指引方向。卡兰贾强调，木薯资源丰富的泰国可能成为一个生物塑料生产中心，木薯可作为生产PLA的主要原料，但木薯的加工需要烧碱，这将为泰国氯碱工业提供机会。往期回顾3家化工园区调区，获批！49亿元！20万吨绿色甲醇项目落地定了！这家化工厂要搬迁又一化工领域全国重点实验室，启建！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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