礼来成GLP-1最大赢家

医药魔方2025-06-26

近日，EvaluatePharma发布《2025年全球制药行业展望》。报告显示，到2030年，全球处方药总销售额预计将增长至1.756万亿美元，届时GLP-1药物销售额将占处方药总销售额的9%。“它们自成一派”且“独领风骚”，EvaluatePharma如此评价。在全球药品销售额TOP10预测名单中，GLP-1产品占据了一半席位，包括Mounjaro（替尔泊肽）、Zepbound（替尔泊肽）、...

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GLP-1","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":1,"GLP":1},"content_text":"近日，EvaluatePharma发布《2025年全球制药行业展望》。报告显示，到2030年，全球处方药总销售额预计将增长至1.756万亿美元，届时GLP-1药物销售额将占处方药总销售额的9%。“它们自成一派”且“独领风骚”，EvaluatePharma如此评价。在全球药品销售额TOP10预测名单中，GLP-1产品占据了一半席位，包括Mounjaro（替尔泊肽）、Zepbound（替尔泊肽）、Ozempic（司美格鲁肽）、Wegovy（司美格鲁肽）和Cagrisema。GLP-1热潮的最大者受益者非礼来莫属，EvaluatePharma认为“礼来在这场竞赛中的霸主地位已经很明显了”。据礼来财报，GLP-1R/GIPR激动剂替尔泊肽（Mounjaro和Zepbound）在2024年畅销165亿美元，仅用两年时间便几乎追上了司美格鲁肽（Ozempic和Wegovy）上市第6年的销售成绩（184亿美元）。替尔泊肽还将继续创造销售神话。根据EvaluatePharma的预测，替尔泊肽2030年全球销售额将达到惊人的617亿美元——这一数字是上一任“药王”Humira（阿达木单抗）峰值销售额（212亿美元）的三倍，是现任“药王”Keytruda（帕博利珠单抗）2024年销售额（295亿美元）的两倍。在EvaluatePharma的畅想中，礼来也将成为2030年营收最高的药企，增速一骑绝尘。相比之下，诺和诺德略显失意，Wegovy的长时间生产短缺以及GLP-1产品布局战略的差异限制了其在糖尿病和肥胖领域的扩张。自2024年6月以来，诺和诺德的股价已经跌去了一半。诺和诺德也承认有所失误，甚至在今年5月出人意料地罢免了首席执行官（CEO）Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen。尽管如此，诺和诺德在糖尿病和肥胖领域的开发能力毋庸置疑。后续即将推出的司美格鲁肽复方药物Cagrisema被EvaluatePharma列为最具价值的研发项目，预计其峰值销售额将达到800亿美元。该药物在前段时间顺利完成了两项III期研究，但疗效数据似乎没有达到投资人的预期。本月初，诺和诺德启动了一项新的III期研究（REDEFINE 11）来进一步评估Cagrisema在更长时间内以及不同剂量下的减重潜力。如果Cagrisema不能在研究中证明优于Zepbound，诺和诺德将再次承压，毕竟Cagrisema的生产过程比司美格鲁肽更加复杂。风光依旧的还有免疫炎症药物。艾伯维的Skyrizi（利生奇珠单抗）和赛诺菲/再生元的Dupixent（度普利尤单抗）还未到达瓶颈，预计其2030年销售额将分别达到266亿美元和251亿美元。抗肿瘤药物在今年表现瞩目，Keytruda从Humira手中接过“药王”传承棒后又创造了新的销售额纪录。但未来5年，抗肿瘤药物的发展势头不如GLP-1药物和免疫炎症药物，帕博利珠单抗、纳武利尤单抗、达雷妥尤单抗等重磅产品将陆续失去专利保护。肿瘤领域需要下一个Keytruda进场。默沙东正在通过推出帕博利珠单抗的皮下注射制剂来减少Keytruda失去市场独占期的损失。Evaluate认为这是药品生命周期管理的一个教科书式案例，而GLP-1药物或许可以复制这一策略——口服GLP-1药物Orforglipron和三重激动剂Retatruide等资产未来将席卷市场。在这份报告中，EvaluatePharma还肯定了中国药企的迅速崛起，认为“中国的药物研发科学家不再止于模仿了”，而是“精心设计产品”。康方生物的依沃西单抗进入最具价值的研发项目名单即是一种证明。推荐阅读百亿美元重磅炸弹大变局：肿瘤、免疫、代谢三足鼎立礼来玩转GLP-1GLP-1市场超500亿美元的造富神话下一代减肥药：跨越GLP-1巅峰Copyright © 2025 PHARMCUBE. 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