突发利好！大资金猛猛加仓！A股彻底爆了！

萝卜投研06-24

6月24日，机器人板块反弹，联诚精密、春光科技、杭齿前进、世运电路等多股涨停。经历了上周五的大跌，筹码基本出清，资金情绪修复叠加特斯拉Robotaxi进展加速，市场对AI硬件端的想象力再被点燃。据招商证券分析，回顾上周五的市场，关于“特斯拉机器人砍单”的传言一度引发资金集中抛售，相关个股普遍走弱。然而从今日走势来看，这一情绪已被市场充分消化：想卖的资金已出清，剩余资金更多是坚定看好新一代人形机器人...

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Big funds add positions violently! A shares have completely exploded!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601177":0.9,"603657":0.9,"603920":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":0.9,"TNC":1,"TSLL":0.9},"content_text":"6月24日，机器人板块反弹，联诚精密、春光科技、杭齿前进、世运电路等多股涨停。经历了上周五的大跌，筹码基本出清，资金情绪修复叠加特斯拉Robotaxi进展加速，市场对AI硬件端的想象力再被点燃。据招商证券分析，回顾上周五的市场，关于“特斯拉机器人砍单”的传言一度引发资金集中抛售，相关个股普遍走弱。然而从今日走势来看，这一情绪已被市场充分消化：想卖的资金已出清，剩余资金更多是坚定看好新一代人形机器人逻辑的存量资金。这种短线情绪的修复，为反弹提供了直接动能。今年无论是交付1000台、2000台还是5000台，对特斯拉财务表现贡献都极为有限。因此，招商认为真正决定市场情绪走向的，是新一代Optimus是否真正落地、性能是否惊艳、是否具备实用场景。只要产品真正过硬、应用明确，量产只是时间问题。这是市场愿意给予估值溢价的根本原因。6月22日，特斯拉首批以Robotaxi形式运营的Model Y车型在奥斯汀正式上路，标志着自动驾驶商业化进一步迈进。这批Robotaxi搭载的是下一代FSD系统，模型参数量是现有FSD的4.5倍，并预计将逐步匹配HW5.0芯片和Dojo 2.0超算中心。在算法、算力双重升级下，未来落地成本亦有下降空间，技术瓶颈正加速突破。招商认为，这对于机器人板块构成实质利好，FSD作为Robot与Robotaxi的共享软件基础，其进展直接决定人形机器人的智能化边界。自2月底以来，机器人产业链大票普遍调整30%左右，调整幅度已充分反映市场对“短期兑现”的悲观预期。此背景下，龙头标的具备较强配置价值：随着特斯拉股东大会临近、三代Optimus仍未发布，市场仍期待后续重磅消息催化。若能实现机器人真正的“量产落地+可用场景”，机器人板块的产业逻辑将由“炒预期”真正走向“估业绩”。瑞银6月23日发布研报指出，如果一切按计划进行（技术、监管、网络建设与扩张等），这一机会或将极具规模——到2040年，车队规模可能达到230万辆，营收约2000亿美元。尽管特斯拉似乎已具备有利位置，但这一机会已反映在当前股价中。投资者对Robotaxi关注度极高。随着特斯拉在奥斯汀推出首个Robotaxi服务，投资者对自动驾驶网约车的关注度极高。因此，我们对这一机会进行了评估。总体来看，如果一切按计划进行（技术、监管、网络建设与扩张等），这一机会或将极具规模——到2040年，车队规模可能达到230万辆，营收约2000亿美元。回顾来看，埃隆·马斯克曾表示，自动驾驶是驱动特斯拉长期股价价值的两大主轴之一（另一为人形机器人）。尽管特斯拉似乎已具备有利位置，我们认为这一机会已反映在当前股价中。我们构建了自己的Robotaxi模型，认为这一业务的价值约为99美元/股，而在综合考虑特斯拉其他业务部分后，我们对TSLA整体估值仍保持谨慎态度。特斯拉在全自动Robotaxi服务方面具备独特优势。这得益于其在自动驾驶系统与整车制造方面的垂直整合能力，以及其自身运营的交通网络公司（TNC）。在本报告中，我们提出了特斯拉美国Robotaxi服务的可行增长路径，并描绘了其在2040年前的可能形态。需要指出的是，TSLA最初的Robotaxi服务可能规模较小/受限，包括：10–20辆车、设定地理围栏、仅限员工/受邀人员、配备安全监控人员、远程操作等。但这种模式与其他自动驾驶网约车服务的起步阶段并无二致。我们认为，在扩张前以此方式开启服务是明智之举。尽管初期运营有限，启动服务本身有助于特斯拉主导Robotaxi话语权，同时吸引更多投资者关注该机会，进而对股价形成支撑。需说明的是：尽管我们在文中详列了假设条件，但考虑到需要做出大量假设，且评估周期较长，这将显著提高结果的可变性。瑞银的Robotaxi模型估算出该业务价值约3500亿美元，或约99美元/股（假设技术、执行和监管均顺利推进），高于此前我们为该业务分配的约2250亿美元（64美元/股）。然而，我们认为特斯拉的传统核心汽车业务可能仅值约25美元/股，能源业务约为19美元/股。这仍然留下约180美元/股（或约6300亿美元市值）尚待解释，仅靠这些仍无法完全支撑当前股价。我们当前为“特斯拉溢价”（包括其他潜在选项价值如人形机器人）分配了2500亿美元，与过去两年“未明确归属”的溢价平均水平大致一致。我们新的215美元目标价基于2026年每股收益预估的90倍市盈率（此前为80倍），约等于+1个标准差的平均水平。该目标价得到我们更新版SOTP估值模型的支持，包含了新的Robotaxi假设。以上内容，来自公开信息整理，来自信息有误可以告知后台修改/删除","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2545403784","isCrawlerRequest":true}